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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: ATL 23, STL 20

The Falcons now have the best record in the NFC at 7-2 and that includes a 5-0 home mark but the team is only 2-2 away from Atlanta. The Rams are just 4-5 on the season and yet are 4-1 at home with a 0-5 road mark. This could be a trap game but should end up as Falcons road win.

Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @PIT L 9-15 10 BAL W 26-21
2 ARI W 41-7 11 @STL --
3 @NO W 27-24 12 GB --
4 SF W 16-14 13 @TB --
5 @CLE W 20-10 14 @CAR --
6 @PHI L 17-31 15 @SEA --
7 CIN W 39-32 16 NO --
8 Bye - 17 CAR --
9 TB W 27-21 - - -
Falcons Report | Statistics | Roster
ATLANTA at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan - - 230,1
RB Michael Turner 70,1 - -
TE Tony Gonzalez - 40 -
WR Michael Jenkins - 50 -
WR Roddy White - 90,1 -
WR Harry Douglas - 20 -
PK Matt Bryant 3 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Big win over the Ravens last Thursday but the schedule tightens up from here on out. The Falcons face four road games over the next five weeks with a home stand against the Packers sandwiched in there. Playing in St. Louis and Carolina should not be a huge challenge but this team has yet to show that it can do as well on the road.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Ryan has scored in every game since week one and comes off his best effort of the year when he passed for 316 yards and three scores on the Ravens last Thursday. Ryan has always been less productive in road games though with never more than 250 passing yards or two scores when away from Atlanta. Also notable - he has passed for less than 225 yards in only one game.

The Rams defense has been pretty good at home but mostly because of a lack of notable visitors. All but one opponent has scored via the pass though only once has an opponent had more than one passing touchdown. That fits into Ryan's normal M.O. anyway but also to consider is that the Rams have been surprisingly good against the run this year. Ryan is a lock for a decent game but unlikely anything big. Even Philip Rivers only passed for 249 yards and one score here.

RUNNING BACKS: Michael Turner had finally picked up the pace with two straight games with over 100 rush yards and two scores in each but then the Ravens showed up and he could only manage 39 yards on 17 carries in a home game no less. Turner typically performs relative to the defense and less related to the venue. He has four games over 100 rush yards and two of those came in away games. He also has almost no role as a receiver.

The Rams have allowed only three rushing touchdowns this year and no visitor to St. Louis has wound up with more than 65 rushing yards though none of the visitors have possessed any notable runners. Turner is most likely to end up with moderate rushing yards with a chance for no more than one touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Roddy White has earned his spot as one of the elite receivers in the game. He has scored seven times and topped 100 yards in five different games. He comes off a Thursday night game with an amazing 12 catches for 138 yards and two scores including the game winner. White is a factor in every game and it doesn't matter where it is played or really who it is against. Oddly enough, his worst games have been against divisional opponents and they've hardly been bad anyway. The other wide receivers contribute but never with any real fantasy value. White stands alone in this offense.

The Rams have already given up three 100+ yard games to visiting wideouts along with a total of four touchdowns. White has been scoring every other week since the third game of the season and comes off his big game versus the Ravens but that is no reason to not expect a good showing here. The Rams secondary can be beat and even Steve Smith with Carolina had nine catches for 85 yards against this defense.

TIGHT ENDS: The Greatest Tight End who ever played the game is still a contributor but hardly a focal point anymore. Tony Gonzalez has only scored in two games this season and has just two efforts that topped 40 yards. Unlike White, those two best yardage games actually were against divisional rivals.

The Rams have allowed only one passing score to a tight end and that was in a road game. At home only one tight end (Chris Cooley - 5-53) was able to exceed 22 yards in St. Louis.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 12 7 10 14 5 15
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 11 9 15 6 27 13
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) ATL -1 2 5 -8 22 -2


St. Louis Rams (4-5)
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ARI L 13-17 10 @SF L 20-23
2 @OAK L 14-16 11 ATL --
3 WAS W 30-16 12 @DEN --
4 SEA W 20-3 13 @ARI --
5 @DET L 6-44 14 @NO --
6 SD W 20-17 15 KC --
7 @TB L 17-18 16 SF --
8 CAR W 20-10 17 @SEA --
9 Bye - - - -
Rams Report | Statistics | Roster
ST. LOUIS vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford - - 200,2
RB Steven Jackson 70 20,1 -
TE M. Hoomanawanui - 20 -
WR Laurent Robinson - 30 -
WR Danny Amendola - 50 -
WR Brandon Gibson - 50,1 -
PK Josh Brown 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The loss in San Francisco dipped the team below the .500 mark for the first time since week four and that inability to win road games is going to come into play with three straight trips after this week. The season has already been a bigger success than 2009 and some pieces are now in place for the future but chances are the Rams have already seen their best record this year.

QUARTERBACK: Just cresting the halfway point of the season and Sam Bradford already has 12 touchdowns and has not thrown an interception since week five. He remains below the 200 yard mark in games unless he is facing one of the worst secondaries in the league but he has scored in all but one game and half the time has two touchdowns.

The Falcons are 7-2 on the season but they have already allowed 16 passing touchdowns and most teams end up with two or three each week. The yardage has been healthy for several though the Rams never pass enough to get into the 300's. WIth a rushing defense that is decent, Bradford is going to have to pass more often than usual. This should be yet another game with two scores and yet marginal yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Steven Jackson turned in his most productive game of the year when he rushed for 81 yards on 20 carries and added eight catches for 678 yards in San Francisco. He scored once for only his third touchdown on the season. Most of that came very late in the game though and his role as a receiver was as productive than his previous five games combined. Jackson has generally rushed better when at home where two of his three touchdowns have occurred.

The Falcons have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season and no runners have topped 70 yards over the last seven games. Jackson could really boost his totals if he was used more as a receiver but last week has been a huge exception to the rule. In the four previous games, he only totaled five catches. But the Falcons have allowed five different running backs to exceed 40 yards against them and Peyton Hillis scored on a reception. Jackson's big day receiving shows his broken finger is no longer any issue.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Danario Alexander may be able to practice some this week after he had a procedure done to his knee a couple of weeks ago but he is not certain to play yet. Brandon Gibson has been the primary receiver lately with 14 catches for 139 yards over the last two games though he has not scored since week two. Danny Amendola has scored in each of the last three games though he has not topped 51 yards in those games and has been specializing in short passes.

This team still is missing a #1 wideout and may not truly have one the rest of the way.

There is nothing special about the Falcons secondary just the same as there is nothing special about the Rams receivers. I like one score to end up with this group which has to heavily favor either Gibson or Amendola who is on a streak right now. It could end up anywhere.

TIGHT ENDS: There is no reliable fantasy value here although Michael Hoomanawanui and Daniel Fells have combined for three touchdowns so far. But no tight end has ever surpassed 35 yards in any game and more often remain below 20 yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 28 23 21 24 12 20
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 23 5 28 16 2 6
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) STL -5 -18 7 -8 -10 -14

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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