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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: BAL 24, CAR 6

Update: Jimmy Clausen is out because of his concussion and Brian St. Pierre will take his place.

Here's a nice soft spot in the Ravens schedule after losing in Atlanta last Thursday. The Ravens are only 2-3 in road games this year but the Panthers have only won one game this year and is averaging an NFL low 12 points per game. This could be a trap game except the Panthers really do not have anything to use to trap anyone.

Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ W 10-9 10 @ATL L 21-26
2 @CIN L 10-15 11 @CAR --
3 CLE W 24-17 12 TB --
4 @PIT W 17-14 13 PIT --
5 DEN W 31-17 14 @HOU --
6 @NE L 20-23 15 NO --
7 BUF W 37-34 16 @CLE --
8 Bye - 17 CIN --
9 MIA W 26-10   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE at CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 210, 2
RB Ray Rice 90 20 -
RB Willis McGahee 40,1 - -
TE Todd Heap - 30,1 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 60,1 -
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh - 20 -
WR Derrick Mason - 60 -
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Ravens are fortunate to end up with this as one of their road games. The next three home games all go against winning records but all of the road games are against losing records and softer defenses. The tougher part about this week is how hard the Ravens have to work to get a comfortable lead and then what they do once they have that. This could end up to be a somewhat lower scoring game because 13 points or more beats the Panthers in most games.

QUARTERBACK: The Ravens may have lost two of their last four games but that is hard to pin on Joe Flacco. He's been on a hot streak for those four weeks with never less than 215 passing yards or two touchdowns per game. He has scored ten touchdowns in the last month and now has 15 touchdowns at just barely past the midpoint of the season. He still has not passed for 300 yards but he has been money every week.

Chances are that Flacco is not going to have to do too much to win this game so look for just a moderate effort this week with two scores and average yardage as most likely. Flacco has been passing for more than that because the opponents were far bigger competition. Anything more is just piling it on.

RUNNING BACKS: For all the success of the passing game, the runners are not faring nearly so well. Ray Rice has topped 100 rush yards this season and averages around 75 yards per week thanks to home games where he has been more productive. Rice does add in receptions to his total and usually ends up with three or four catches for enough yardage to get his totals past the 100 yard mark. He just never scores.

Willis McGahee can score and has five times but there is almost never any yardage with his stats. One notable this week - his rare times of having yardage of any measure has been when he faced the softer defenses of the Broncos (10-67) and Bills (11-64) with a score in each. McGahee should figure in this week.

The Panthers are soft against the run but the Ravens will split the duties up. There should be at least one rushing score in this game but that has to favor McGahee. Rice will have healthy yardage

WIDE RECEIVERS: The problem with Anquan Boldin is not that he never has any good games. He has scored six times this year and three times had 90 yards or better. But he has three games with 35 yards or less with no scores. Those have come against the better secondaries on the schedule. Boldin has settled down to around 50 or 60 yards in most games. Derrick Mason has been very solid around the 40 yard mark and has scored in each of the last two games. T.J. Houshmandzadeh has made the slot worth around 20 yards per week and very rarely anything more.

The Panthers have been pretty good against wide receivers though game situation has not forced opponents to throw much. There has only been one wideout to score in Carolina and none have gained more than 77 yards. Look for moderate games here from Boldin and Mason and one score that really favors neither that much. I will give it to Boldin with low confidence.

TIGHT ENDS: Todd Heap has never been much as a possession receiver this year with only three or four catches per week but he has scored four times over the last four games and remains a red zone target for Flacco.

Tight ends are the one weakness of the Panthers who have allowed five different opponents to score with the position. Heap is a common red zone read and should be the one with the other touchdown catch.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 14 10 18 13 15 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 8 22 3 30 29 29
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BAL -6 12 -15 17 14 1


Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYG L 18-31 10 @TB L 16-31
2 TB L 7-20 11 BAL --
3 CIN L 7-20 12 @CLE --
4 @NO L 14-16 13 @SEA --
5 CHI L 6-23 14 ATL --
6 Bye - 15 ARI --
7 SF W 23-20 16 @PIT --
8 @STL L 10-20 17 @ATL --
9 NO L 3-34   - -
Panthers Report | Statistics | Roster
CAROLINA vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Brian St. Pierre - - 150
RB Mike Goodson 50 10 -
TE Dante Rosario - 20 -
WR Steve Smith - 40 -
WR David Gettis - 30 -
PK John Kasay 2 FG - -

Pregame Notes: The Panthers not only have the lowest scoring offense with 104 points scored but the #2 teams both have 54 more points scored. The Panthers have averaged less than 12 points per game. They have lost both starting running backs and quarterback. Now Jimmy Clausen and Brandon Lafell have concussions. It is not getting any better.

QUARTERBACK: Jimmy Clausen sustained a concussion late in the Game against the Buccaneers and is still taking tests as of this writing. If Clausen cannot play, the Panthers would turn to fellow rookie Tony Pike. I will assume that Clausen can play and update as warranted. So far Clausen only has one touchdown pass in the three starts so far.

The Ravens defense is reason enough to not want to start a quarterback. Being a Panther quarterback this week is like a double-whammy.

RUNNING BACKS: Last week DeAngelo Williams never practiced and was held out of the game because of a foot injury. Jonathan Stewart did not play because of his concussion and Tyrell Sutton missed the game with a bad ankle. That left Mike Goodson as the last man standing and he turned in 100 yards on 23 carries in Tampa Bay.

I will assume that Goodson plays this week and update if either Williams or Stewart can play even though you won't start them anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon LaFell suffered a concussion last week and will have to go through the testing before he can play. If he cannot, David Clowney will likely take his place but this offense has been devoid of fantasy relevance even before Matt Moore was lost for the season. Steve Smith had one marginally decent game in the last six weeks but with Clausen under center - much less Tony Pike - he has been double covered and never worth more than 47 yards. There is no fantasy start on this group and may not be for the rest of the season.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value, no touchdowns this year and rarely more than 20 yards/

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 32 26 29 29 29 26
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 5 6 22 2 23 5
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) CAR -27 -20 -7 -27 -6 -21

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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