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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: BUF 10, CIN 24

Update: Cedric Benson was held out on Wednesday and limited on Thursday but is still expected to play. Chad Ochocinco is still bothered by his shoulder and was held out on Thursday. He is still expected to play but won't be completely healthy so I am lowering his projections.

Update #2: Benson has been listed as questionable this week despite practicing fully on Friday. He is still expected to play but make sure to check the pregame inactives to make sure nothing has happened..

The Bills finally get their first win of the year while the Bengals are on a six game losing streak - the longest in the NFL now that the Bills have won a game. The Bengals lose this game expect a near meltdown by some Cincy players.

Buffalo Bills (1-8)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA L 10-15 10 DET W 14-12
2 @GB L 7-34 11 @CIN --
3 @NE L 30-38 12 PIT --
4 NYJ L 14-38 13 @MIN --
5 JAC L 26-36 14 CLE --
6 Bye - 15 @MIA --
7 @BAL L 34-37 16 NE --
8 @KC L 10-13 17 @NYJ --
9 CHI L 19-22 - - -
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 220,1
RB Fred Jackson 60 20 -
WR Lee Evans - 50 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70,1 -
WR Donald Jones - 30 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Sort of a sad irony that the first win by the Bills was the 25th road loss by the Lions setting a new NFL record. Even then it was only by two points and thanks in part to a missed two point conversion. But a win is a win and everything now is just gravy. The Bills may not be favored again so beating the Lions may have prevented a winless season.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick was a fantasy disappointment last week but did have his throwing hand stepped on in the first quarter and had it all taped up after the game. Fitzpatrick said it was just swelling and that it was not going to be a problem. But Fitzpatrick only threw 24 passes in the game after throwing more than 40 passes in each of his three previous games. I will assume that he can play without limitation and update as needed.

The Bengals at home have not allowed more than one passing score to an opposing quarterback and most end up with less than 225 passing yards. Fitzpatrick has been less effective in recent road games anyway and should end up with only an average sort of game this time.

RUNNING BACKS: The Bills are hoping that C.J. Spiller will return from his hamstring injury next week though he may even practice some later in this week. Spiller has been nearly a complete nonfactor and his presences has never had any bearing on the success of the offense.

Fred Jackson feasted on the visiting Lions with 25 carries for 133 yard and one touchdown and added six catches for 37 yards for a second score. This game was more than double any other by Jackson this year but getting a heavier workload with Spiller out and Fitzpatrick's hand an issue helped. Jackson had a season high 73 yards prior to last week.

The Bengals have only allowed three rushing scores by visitors this year and no runner has topped 100 yards. Expect a much more normal showing by Jackson who could end up with decent yardage if Fitzpatrick throws to him again.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The hoped for big game for the receivers did not happen last week and Steve Johnson finally had his first bad game since week two. After stringing together five consecutive games with a score, Johnson had 11 catches for 145 yards against the Bears. But when the Lions showed up, Johnson was limited to only three catches for 37 yards. Lee Evans has been consistent with around 50 yards in most games but has scored in only two games. Both he and Johnson suffered from a drop in production last week.

The Bengals are only average against the position so it depends on whether Fitzpatrick has his hand in good shape or not. A score here should end up with Johnson if it happens at all.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy impact.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 16 28 7 31 32 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 4 17 10 15 26 25
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BUF -12 -11 3 -16 -6 -6


Cincinnati Bengals (2-7)
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NE L 24-38 10 @IND L 17-23
2 BAL W 15-10 11 BUF --
3 @CAR W 20-7 12 @NYJ --
4 @CLE L 20-23 13 NO --
5 TB L 21-24 14 @PIT --
6 Bye - 15 CLE --
7 @ATL L 32-39 16 SD --
8 MIA L 14-22 17 @BAL --
9 PIT L 21-27 - - -
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 250,2
RB Cedric Benson 90,1 20 -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 30 -
WR Chad Ochocinco - 40 -
WR Terrell Owens - 80,2 -
WR Jordan Shipley - 50 -
PK   1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals placed Mike Nugent on injured reserve with a torn right ACL and I will update later when they have a replacement kicker. The loss at Indy was just one more in a six game string of disappointments but the schedule has been murderous and is not going to get much better - except this week. The visiting Bills is as good as it is going to get and a chance for the Bengals to at least kill this losing streak.

QUARTERBACK: This losing streak has been a godsend for Carson Palmer at least in fantasy terms. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last six games and half the games ended with 290+ passing yards. Facing a constant string of great defenses have been tough on the Bengals winning fortunes but Palmer has never been more productive. He already has 16 touchdowns on the season against 11 interceptions.

Pretty much every team throws for around 250 yards and two or three scores on the Bills in road games. The Bengals need a win desperately and are not likely to take it easy whenever they get a lead. Expect a solid showing here with no less than 250 yards and two scores that could go higher.

RUNNING BACKS: This stretch of tough matchups has really depressed what Cedric Benson could do this year and so far he has only one game over 100 rush yards and just one score since week three. In fairness, he has been facing top defenses but last week in Indianapolis he should have been far better than 24 yards on 14 carries and he also lost a fumble for the third time this season. There still has been no increase in the use of Bernard Scott, so Benson gets whatever there is to get. He just hasn't done much with it.

Benson faces one of the very worst defenses against running backs and this week will be as good as it gets. This is clearly his best matchup of the entire season going against a defense that has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and well over 100 rush yards to each road opponent. It is hard to rely on Benson anymore but this is the most he will likely produce all year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chad Ochocinco was injured in Week 10 when he was tackled onto his shoulder but finished the game and I will assume that he can play this week. He had only his third touchdown of the season in Indy when he caught a freakishly high seven passes for 86 yards. The odd pattern for Ochocinco is that he has only scored in three games and had his only significant yardage in those as well. And all three were in road games. At home, he has never had more than 44 yards or four catches.

Terrell Owens broke his five game scoring streak but still has eight touchdowns on the season and has not turned in less than 65 yards or one score in the recent home games. Ochocinco is unreliable with only three decent games but Owens has been money since week three.

The Bills have allowed six touchdowns to wideouts in road games this year though only Calvin Johnson topped 100 yards against them. Most teams have focused more on the rushing game since it has been the easier way to win. Owens at home should be money with good yardage and at least one score and possibly two as he had in each of the last two home stands. Ochocinco is good for moderate yardage but anything more than that would be his first time in a home game this year.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham exploded last week with a career best nine catches for 85 yards and one score but he has been tracking less than 30 yards per week all season and that was just a function of the Colts game. No reason to expect more from Gresham this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 11 27 4 25 20 24
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 18 29 8 31 30 10
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) CIN 7 2 4 6 10 -14

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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