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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: GB 24, MIN 23

Update: Bernard Berrian was held out on Wednesday and limited on Thursday because of his groin strain. He is a risky start this week. Harvin has been limited in practice because of his ankle but it is no different than the past two weeks.

This game is a rematch of week seven when the Packers won 28-24 in Green Bay. They have won every game since. The Vikings have only won once in the last three weeks and that was barely clipping the visiting Cardinals. This sets up to be a clear win for the Packers but these divisional rivals won't always follow a script when they play. The Packers are coming off a bye while the Vikes just were dismantled by the Bears.

Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @PHI W 27-20 10 Bye -
2 BUF W 34-7 11 @MIN --
3 @CHI L 17-20 12 @ATL --
4 DET W 28-26 13 SF --
5 @WAS L 13-16 14 @DET --
6 MIA L 20-23 15 @NE --
7 MIN W 28-24 16 NYG --
8 @NYJ W 9-0 17 CHI --
9 DAL W 45-7 - - -
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY at MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 290,2
RB Brandon Jackson 30 30 -
TE Andrew Quarless - 20 -
WR Greg Jennings - 80,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 50 -
WR James Jones - 80,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a three game winning streak but are tied for the division lead with the Bears who best them in Chicago back in week three. That week 17 matchup could be for the divisional title but winning a game like this week is a must to make that final meeting with the Bears mean anything.

I like a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers already passed for 295 yards and two scores on the Vikings earlier this year and he's remained at double digit scores and 250+ yards in most of his games. Rodgers has adjusted to numerous injuries on the offense and still maintains excellent stats in games.

The Vikings have always allowed visiting teams to pass for at least one score and Rodgers will be the best one through this season. Look for a duplicate of his first game though with lesser yardage. His previous game was the season high allowed by the Vikings.

RUNNING BACKS: Brandon Jackson comes off one of his best games of the year when he scored twice on the Cowboys and totaled 68 yards. His other best effort was when the Vikings came to Green Bay and Jackson rushed for 58 yards on 13 carries with one score and he added 46 yards on three receptions. John Kuhn continues to run around six or eight meaningless times each week but Jackson has been at least a marginal fantasy play recently with his receiving yards helping to boost his fantasy value.

Jackson should have a tougher time this week since the Vikes have not allowed a runner to score in Minny and only one had more than 40 rushing yards. Jackson should tack on enough yards as a receiver to make him at least a marginal play this week but he's highly unlikely to score or gain much on the ground.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Donald Driver missed the last game with a quad injury but had the bye to help him heal. At this point I will expect that Driver can play this week at least in a limited fashion as was the hope when he took week nine off. Driver had no catches in the previous matchup with the Vikes. In his place, James Jones had a career best 123 yards on eight catches and one score against the Cowboys. Greg Jennings caught six passes for 74 yards and a score in the previous game with the Vikes which was actually his lowest output of the last month. Jordy Nelson has never scored but still shows up each week with 40 to 60 yards per game.

The Vikings have held most visiting wideouts to lesser games in Minny but have allowed five touchdowns to the position and overall faced mostly lackluster offenses there. Have to like Jones again this week for the score and Rodgers is going to spread the ball around anyway. Rodgers has to win this game using these wideouts.

TIGHT ENDS: Andrew Quarless has spent the bye week healing his shoulder and while he was held out of contact drills last week, he is expected to play on Sunday. He's been a far less productive replacement for Jermichael Finley.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 30 8 15 10 2
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 7 11 13 14 6 30
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) GB 2 -19 5 -1 -4 28


Minnesota Vikings (3-6)
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO L 9-14 10 @CHI L 13-27
2 MIA L 10-14 11 GB --
3 DET W 24-10 12 @WAS --
4 Bye - 13 BUF --
5 @NYJ L 20-29 14 NYG --
6 DAL W 24-21 15 CHI --
7 @GB L 24-28 16 @PHI --
8 @NE L 18-28 17 @DET --
9 ARI W 27-24 - - -
Vikings Report | Statistics | Roster
MINNESOTA vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre - - 200,1
RB Adrian Peterson 90,1 40 -
TE Vishante Shiancoe - 30 -
WR Bernard Berrian - 30 -
WR Greg Camarillo - 30 -
WR Percy Harvin 20 50,1 -
PK Ryan Longwell 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The precarious situation continues with a beaten up Brett Favre and a HC whose hoped for firing has sparked a movement so large that it may form into a third political party. At 3-6 the Vikings are already out of the playoffs to all but the most fervent fans and apparently Brett Favre. By now the team is just trying to win enough to not have to replace their coaching staff before the season ends. A couple of more losses and that may be impossible to avoid.

QUARTERBACK: Brett Favre claims that his shoulder injury is no big deal and he will not submit to an MRI but he only managed to throw for 170 yards and one score in Chicago along with three interceptions and one lost fumble. That makes the leader board stand at ten passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions and five lost fumbles. Favre passed for only 212 yards and one score in Green Bay in week seven.

Sidney Rice is likely not back yet, Percy Harvin gets more dinged up each week and Bernard Berrian is out with a groin injury. That will make replicating the last meeting hard enough without Favre getting any more banged up by a defense with 28 sacks on the season.

RUNNING BACKS: Adrian Peterson had one of his best games of the year when he played in Green Bay and ended with 131 yards and one score on 28 carries and he added two catches for 41 more yards. But Peterson has been inexplicably shorted on carries in recent weeks and only had 17 in Chicago and 15 the previous week when the Cardinals showed up. He is sensitive to game situation though and the Packers have trailed in most games.

Peterson has one of the only three rushing scores allowed by the Packers this year and his 131 yards dwarfed the next best 73 yards that the Packers have allowed. Look for a good game here but likely a bit less yardage than the first matchup. His role as a receiver has helped boost his stats each week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Bernard Berrian sat out week ten because of a groin injury during pregame warm ups. So far Berrian is not a lock to play this week but I will assume at least a limited Berrian will be there and adjust later if needed. Sidney Rice may show up this week after sitting out the Chicago game but even if he does it is expected to be very limited. I won't project for him until it is likely that he will have a full game to produce significant numbers. Percy Harvin is a constant medical issue it seems with either a migraine headache or his weekly aggravating of the existing ankle sprain that always looks bad but Harvin always has made it back into the game and been a big factor.

The Vikings had Randy Moss (3-30, TD) in the last meeting with the Packers and Harvin ended with 65 yards on five catches and ran in a score on his three carries for 41 yards. No other wideout had more than one catch. Without Moss, the offense is little more than Harvin until Rice returns in full force. I like the one passing score to end up with a wideout and that almost has to be Harvin.

TIGHT ENDS: While Vishante Shiancoe has never returned to the level that started the season, he has been solid with around 30 yards in most games and he scored once two week ago. Shiancoe caught three passes for 30 yards in the first meeting with the Packers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 6 23 18 30 27
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 13 3 11 18 13 8
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) MIN -14 -3 -12 0 -17 -19

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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