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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: HOU 13, NYJ 31

The Texans are on a three game losing streak and facing their third road game in the last four weeks. The Jets are back home where remarkably they are only 2-2 but both losses were when the Jets offense mysteriously disappeared. That is simply not possible hosting the Texans because they would literally help you find your offense if needed.

The Jets won 24-7 in Houston during the season opener last year.

Houston Texans (4-5)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND W 34-24 10 @JAC L 24-31
2 @WAS W 30-27 11 @NYJ --
3 DAL L 13-27 12 TEN --
4 @OAK W 31-24 13 @PHI --
5 NYG L 10-34 14 BAL --
6 KC W 35-31 15 @TEN --
7 Bye - 16 @DEN --
8 @IND L 17-30 17 JAC --
9 SD L 23-29   - -
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 200,1
RB Arian Foster 40 30 -
WR Andre' Johnson - 50 -
WR Kevin Walter - 50,1 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 30 -
PK Neil Rackers 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: This tough stretch is not getting any better playing the Jets, Titans Eagles, Ravens and then Titans again. There is a chance that the Texans will only be favored in one remaining game (JAC) and the inescapable conclusion is that once again, the Texans will fail to have a winning season.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Schaub finally had a decent game last week thanks to playing the Jaguars but otherwise this offense has lost the early season punch it had and the passing game has devolved into little more than "where's Andre?" which is not a bad game to play. The Jets have a healthy Darrelle Revis who recently let Calvin Johnson have one catch for 13 yards so it does not bode well for a passing attack predicated on one player. Schaub may manage to end up with one trash time score and some moderate yardage but it won't be nearly enough to decide the game.

Schaub passed for 166 yards and no scores against the Jets last year.

RUNNING BACKS: Arian Foster remains one of the most productive backs in the league and he scored in each of the last four games with a total of 11 touchdowns on the season already. But in the most recent two road games, he was only given 15 carries and fell short of his potential in those games. He only managed 56 yards on 15 carries in Jacksonville and his role as a receiver has been inconsistent as well but should see an increase if Andre Johnson is less of an option this week and Owen Daniels remains out.

The Jets have allowed only two rushing touchdowns by running backs this year and minimal yardage. Anything over 50 rush yards would be a big success here and his only shot at appreciable numbers this week is if Schaub will use him as a receiver. The Jets have been very good against pass catching backs as well though and none have totaled more than 27 yards via catching the ball.

The Texans only gained 32 yards on 12 rushes versus the Jets last season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: While Andre' Johnson is having his typical great year with five games over 95 yards already, he is not above the odd bad showing and facing, undoubtedly, Darrelle Revis makes him less attractive for a fantasy start this week. His upside alone means you have to start him but a healthy Revis is back to shutting down his assigned player. That should push some balls towards Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones. Walter had a nice 90-yard, one touchdown game in Jacksonville against that downy soft secondary that was devoted (poorly) to stopping Andre Johnson. But that was Walter's first decent game since week two. Jacoby Jones has not taken any steps forward this season despite being given plenty of opportunities and he;s yet to top 45 yards in the last five games.

No receiver had more than 35 yards against the Jets last year.

I like one passing score and it should end up with a non-Johnson wideout. That makes Walter the best candidate but the yardage is not likely to be much.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels has been shut down to heal up for good and Joel Dreessen has taken his place with mixed results. He had 67 yards on five reception at home against the Chargers but then only produced two catches for 24 yards and one lost fumble in Jacksonville. He remains a very risky fantasy play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 17 2 13 17 8 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 20 1 23 12 4 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) HOU 3 -1 10 -5 -4 -30


New York Jets (7-2)
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BAL L 9-10 10 @CLE W 26-20
2 NE W 28-14 11 HOU --
3 @MIA W 31-23 12 CIN --
4 @BUF W 38-14 13 @NE --
5 MIN W 29-20 14 MIA --
6 @DEN W 24-20 15 @PIT --
7 Bye - 16 @CHI --
8 GB L 0-9 17 BUF --
9 @DET W 23-20 - - -
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 280,2
RB Shonn Greene 50 10 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 60,1 40 -
TE Dustin Keller - 30 -
WR Braylon Edwards - 80,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 110,1 -
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jets need to re-examine their work schedule during the bye week because whatever it was they did - they need to avoid next year. The Jets are 7-2 but upon leaving their week seven bye lost 0-9 to the Packers, beat the Lions by one field goal in overtime and then beat the Browns in overtime. That's basically two bad plays from being 0-3 and against very weak teams. This game should be handled without too much problem but matchups loom down the road that will need to see the old Jets.

I like a defensive score this week.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez has hit a very nice stretch in his schedule and posted career highest against the Lions (336 yds, TD) and Browns (299 yds, 2 TD) and added a rushing touchdown in both games. Those were on the road and now he gets to host the worst secondary in the league with the Texans coming to town.

Sanchez injured his calf last week but played with the injury and it is not expected to be any issue this week. He passed for 272 yards with one touchdown in Houston last year.

In order to not throw at least two touchdowns against the Texans you have to sign a waiver to release the stadium from liability for tearing the fabric of space and time. They have already allowed 22 passing scores this season and only once had an opponent with less than 250 passing yards (Chiefs ran for 193 in that game). This is the softest matchup that Sanchez will see for the rest of the season. Two scores should be the least he does. It is a natural law.

RUNNING BACKS: There has been no change for LaDainian Tomlinson who has turned in between 54 and 57 rushing yards in each of the last four games. Now there is consistency (though of a lower nature than desired). He has maintained his role as a receiver and has yet to be worth less than around 100 total yards or more per game. Shonn Greene has seen an uptick in use but he still has only one touchdown on the season and has minimal use as a receiver. Greene should become a bigger factor down the stretch when rushing is at a premium.

The Jets rushed for 167 yards and two scores on 35 carries in Houston last season.

The Texans have been decent against the run but mostly because it is so easy to pass that opponents have rarely had many carries. Maurice Jones-Drew had 24 runs for 100 yards and two scores last week. Most teams limit their backs to half that amount of carries because throwing for chunks of yardage is more fun. The split here will prevent a big rushing game but there is a good shot at one rushing score this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jerricho Cotchery had a very impressive catch last week on the same play that he suffered a small tear in his groin <insert cringe>. He has not been ruled out this week but it seems likely enough I will exclude him for now. Braylon Edwards remains the lead scorer of the wideouts with five touchdowns but he has yet to top 87 yards in a game. At least until this weekend. Santonio Holmes now has his first touchdown as a Jet and a well timed one at that - in overtime slipping between two defenders and sprinting for the 37-yard score. Holmes already has the best game of a Jets wideout with 114 yards in Detroit in week nine.

This is the part where wide receivers get big, sloppy grins like boy scouts hiking in the woods and happening on a nudist colony. The Texans have already allowed 11 receivers to gain 88 yards or more and nine different players have scored a total of thirteen times against them. Yes, four different wideouts had two scores on the Texans. That awesome catch by Mike Thomas last week? Against the Texans. Never heard of Seyi Ajirotutu? He had 111 yards and two scores on the Texans. Five different receivers had more than 110 yards on them. If you can't make it here, you can't make it anywhere. And with no Cotchery - less sharing to boot.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller remains part of the offense but he has declined in use since Santonio Holmes showed up. He's good for some yardage but has not scored since week four.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 22 8 19 11 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 32 19 30 32 24 7
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NYJ 10 11 11 21 18 -14

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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