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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT *TB at SF
*GB at MIN *BUF at CIN *CLE at JAC *IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL *SEA at NO NYG at PHI
*UPDATED *ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL *DEN at SD

Prediction: SEA 6, NO 31

Update: Jeremy Shockey has not practiced because of his ribs and may come down to a game time decision. I am lowering his projections and he is not a safe start this week. Pierre Thomas has been able to do some limited work in practices but does not appear likely to play this week. Reggie Bush is expected to play this week but check the gametime inactives to make sure no setbacks have occurred.

Update #2: Jeremy Shockey has been already called out this week.

The Seahawks come off their biggest win of the season but that was on the tail of the worst two losses and it was just the Cardinals. Plus the Seahawks are only 2-3 in road games. The Saints come off their bye having won their last two games and for the first time actually looked like the defending NFL champ. Expect the lesser Seattle team to show up this week.

Seattle Seahawks (5-4)
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF W 31-6 10 @ARI W 36-18
2 @DEN L 14-31 11 @NO --
3 SD W 27-20 12 KC --
4 @STL L 3-20 13 CAR --
5 Bye - 14 @SF --
6 @CHI W 23-20 15 ATL --
7 ARI W 22-10 16 @TB --
8 @OAK L 3-33 17 STL --
9 NYG L 7-41 - - -
Seahawks Report | Statistics | Roster
SEATTLE at NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck - - 170
RB Justin Forsett 50 20 -
RB Marshawn Lynch 30 - -
WR Mike Williams - 50 -
WR Deon Butler - 40 -
WR Ben Obamanu - 30 -
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG - -
Pregame Notes: The Seahawks can lose this game and still be in first place in the NFC West. Given the ever-growing sloppy play in the division, the Seahawks are nearly locks were it not for the mighty 4-5 Rams who have already beaten them once and matchup again in the final game of the season. In the NFC West, it all boils down to a high school like system where the only games that matter are within the division.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Hasselbeck fractured the wrist on his non-throwing hand and he'll just wear a splint and not be impacted by it. Even though Hasselbeck had a big week ten with 333 passing yards in Arizona, he still threw for only one touchdown which has been his maximum since the season opener. He also has broken 200 passing yards in under half of his games. In five road games, he has totaled only three touchdowns.

The Saints have only allowed six passing scores this season and only once given up more than 220 passing yards. Expect Hasselbeck to have a worse than normal game which is truly saying a lot

RUNNING BACKS: The good news this week is that LT Russell Okung may be back and that helps the entire offense. Justin Forsett comes off one of his best games with 64 yards on nine carries and one score with three receptions for 31 yards more. That was more akin to his role before Marshawn Lynch joined the team in week six and has since fallen from favor. Lynch has two scores on the season and they came in the two matchups with the Cardinals. Forsett has bought a lot of good will after last week but Lynch remains involved.

The Saints have allowed a rushing score to the last four visitors though most end up with marginal yardage and this unit is one of the worst in the league. There is a chance for one touchdown but that favors the bigger Lynch if it happens at all. With minimal yardage involved, Lynch is not worth the start to see if the score happens.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Williams played with a broken finger Sunday and he still ended up with 11 catches for 145 yards for a season best. He has scored only once in his second best game of the year when he had 11 receptions for 87 yards and one score. And yes, both games where against the Cardinals. Williams had been struggling to top 30 yards for two weeks. Golden Tate remains out with a sprained ankle and Deon Butler comes off his best game of the year when he had 66 yards on four catches and one score thanks to a 63-yard touchdown. Otherwise - three catches for three yards which would have matched his two previous games.

The Saints have only allowed two touchdowns thrown to a wideout in nine games and only Larry Fitzgerald had more than 70 yards on this defense. Played in New Orleans no receiver has topped 69 yards (Roddy White). Lower expectations for Williams this week - this is not Arizona.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Not any more. Not even a catch by John Carlson last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 29 31 22 27 17 8
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 1 16 1 19 3 24
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) SEA -28 -15 -21 -8 -14 16


New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN W 14-9 10 Bye -
2 @SF W 25-22 11 SEA --
3 ATL L 24-27 12 @DAL --
4 CAR W 16-14 13 @CIN --
5 @ARI L 20-30 14 STL --
6 @TB W 31-6 15 @BAL --
7 CLE L 17-30 16 @ATL --
8 PIT W 20-10 17 TB --
9 @CAR W 34-3 - - -
Saints Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ORLEANS vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees - - 300,3
RB Reggie Bush 20 30,1 -
RB Chris Ivory 60,1 - -
TE Jeremy Shockey - 10 -
TE Jimmy Graham - 30,1 -
WR Marques Colston - 70 -
WR Lance Moore - 60 -
WR Devery Henderson - 20 -
WR Robert Meachem - 40,1 -
PK Garrett Hartley 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: After stumbling through much of the season, the Saints have finally played more true to form in the last couple of games and come off their bye. They still trail the Falcons who also won in New Orleans back in week three so ideally this team needs to win out and then beat the Falcons in Atlanta during week 16. That's going to be a tall order with four road trips in five weeks following this game.

QUARTERBACK: While the Saints may have struggled, the passing numbers of Drew Brees have not with 16 touchdowns on the season and 250+ yards in every game since the season opener. He has passed for less than two scores only once in that timeframe and thrown for over 300 yards in three of the last four home games.

The Seahawks secondary has given up no less than 289 yards in all five road games this year. Expect a nice showing here by Brees and hope he does not get too bored too early.

RUNNING BACKS: Julius Jones had a decent showing back in week nine but he takes a step back on the depth chart (if he even remains on it) with the return of Reggie Bush who has been out with a broken leg since week two. Bush not only provides a great pass outlet, he changes the defense that has to keep track of him. Chris Ivory will remain the other starter since Pierre Thomas still has not been cleared to practice let alone play thanks to the world's slowest healing ankle.

The Seahawks biggest weakness on defense is the rushing game and they have allowed seven scores to running backs in road games this year - everyone gets at least one. That should favor Ivory this week as Reggie Bush is expected to be limited in his first game back after two months.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is always a tough bunch to read and predict on a weekly basis. Devery Henderson has been on the decline since week four and had only accounted for five catches for 53 yards over the last four games - twice handing in zeroes. Lance Moore and Marques Colston have remained relatively consistent with 50 to 70 yards each week but rarely more. Robert Meachem comes off a down game but he has been upgraded to five or six targets per week with moderate results.

This unit has only scored ten times this season and Lance Moore (5) is the only wideout with more than two touchdowns.

I like at least one score for this group but it favors either Meachem or Moore. The speedsters do better against the Seahawks so I'll tip it towards Meachem with low confidence. As always, any yardage above a moderate game is a risk to rely on.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeremy Shockey scored his third touchdown of the year but his yardage each week remains around 30 and now the rookie Jimmy Graham is also getting more involved with his first NFL score just last game when he had three catches for 49 yards in Carolina. the Seahawks rank highly against tight ends because they have only face two decent ones - Vernon Davis (8-73) and Antonio Gates (7-109, TD). I like one score to a tight end again this week and since Shockey has tender ribs, I'll nudge it towards Graham who is an interesting free agent at least in dynasty leagues.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 7 21 9 5 9 22
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 19 27 27 4 21 20
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NO 12 6 18 -1 12 -2

WEEK 11
2010
CHI at MIA BAL at CAR OAK at PIT TB at SF
GB at MIN BUF at CIN CLE at JAC IND at NE
WAS at TEN DET at DAL SEA at NO NYG at PHI
  ARI at KC HOU at NYJ ATL at STL DEN at SD
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