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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2010
NE at DET TB at BAL PHI at CHI *MIA at OAK
NO at DAL *JAC at NYG *MIN at WAS STL at DEN
CIN at NYJ *CAR at CLE *GB at ATL *SD at IND
*UPDATED TEN at HOU PIT at BUF *KC at SEA SF at ARI

Prediction: TEN 14, HOU 27

The Titans are only 5-5 but just one game behind the Jaguars for the AFC South and 3-2 in road games this year. The Texans are 4-6 and yet just two games out with a 2-3 home record. These divisional rivals traded road wins last year with the Titans winning 20-17 in Houston and the Texans winning 34-31 in Tennessee.

Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 OAK W 38-13 10 @MIA L 17-29
2 PIT L 11-19 11 WAS L 16-19
3 @NYG W 29-10 12 @HOU --
4 DEN L 20-26 13 JAC --
5 @DAL W 34-27 14 IND --
6 @JAC W 30-3 15 HOU --
7 PHI W 37-19 16 @KC --
8 @SD L 25-33 17 @IND --
9 Bye - - - -
Titans Report | Statistics | Roster
TENNESSEE at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Rusty Smith - - 200,1
RB Chris Johnson 90,1 10 -
TE Bo Scaife - 20 -
WR Justin Gage - 30 -
WR Nate Washington - 60,1 -
WR Randy Moss - 50 -
PK Rob Bironas - 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: What a week. The Titans are already on a three game slide and now have gone through the drama of alienating Vince Young which will have some impact on the team and probably not 100% positive since he had friends. Starting a rookie quarterback from the sixth round probably makes you wish you have got around to that earlier in the draft. This situation is somewhat unprecedented since they are not allowing Young to come to the headquarters building either. In a normal week this would be a win in Houston but there is much indecision and unresolved drama still floating about no matter that Fisher wants to pretend that it is over.

QUARTERBACK: Kerry Collins will miss at least one or two more weeks with a calf injury so Rusty Smith from Florida Atlantic will take the reins for now. Smith only completed 3 of 9 for 62 yards when he entered the Redskins game but showed a willingness to throw deep. The Titans have signed Chris Simms for a backup until Collins is back. Making this all even more surreal is that Randy Moss is on the team now though not in a pass catching capacity apparently and that the Titans have one of the nicest passing schedules for the next four weeks since they play @HOU, JAC, IND and HOU. If there was ever an opportunity to do well, it is now if Smith or Collins can take advantage.

The Texans allow multiple scores to every team it meets save for the Redskins who had one score and yet 426 passing yards. No one has ever thrown for less than 200 yards on the Texans. The Texans have allowed 25 passing scores already - that's 2.5 per game on average. But what Smith will do is a complete unknown. I am giving him an average sort of game since he is facing the #32 passing defense.

RUNNING BACKS: No doubt that the Texans will be loading up to stop Chris Johnson since he rushed for 151 yards in Houston last season. He has six games over 100 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns and now faces a Texans defense that has also given up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs thought only two had 100 rush yards. This is a road game and on the heels of a quarterback change. Expect a decent game here from Johnson who is always worthy of a start but chances are he'll do a bit less this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Kenny Britt should miss this week with his nagging hamstring injury but in a normal week, facing the Texans would be a reason to rejoice and start all wideouts. Nate Washington has scored twice in the last three weeks and had 100+ yards in two of those games. He would be a lock for a nice game this week. Randy Moss could end up with a score and a huge game against this weak secondary but that is impossible to predict at this point. The safest play here is to expect Washington to have a decent game and Moss should get a few catches. It could be exponentially more but it could just as easily be a flop of a game.

No receiver had more than 44 yards in Houston last year and only Kenny Britt scored thanks to Chris Johnson's rushing.

TIGHT ENDS: Smith threw nine passes last week and only one went to a tight end - Jared Cook not Bo Scaife. Leave Scaife on the bench this week even though the faces the #32 defense against tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 24 13 20 21 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 32 19 32 32 27 8
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) TEN 8 6 12 11 22 5


Houston Texans (4-6)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND W 34-24 10 @JAC L 24-31
2 @WAS W 30-27 11 @NYJ L 27-30
3 DAL L 13-27 12 TEN --
4 @OAK W 31-24 13 @PHI --
5 NYG L 10-34 14 BAL --
6 KC W 35-31 15 @TEN --
7 Bye - 16 @DEN --
8 @IND L 17-30 17 JAC --
9 SD L 23-29   - -
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 230,2
RB Arian Foster 110,1 50,1 -
WR Andre' Johnson - 80,1 -
WR Kevin Walter - 30 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 40 -
PK Neil Rackers 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Texans have lost their last two games at literally the final play of the game and their four game losing slide is not likely to improve much with the Eagles and Ravens up next. The Texans played great games in both Jacksonville and New York only to see it ripped away at the last moment. But a 4-6 record is probably good for a team that has never allowed fewer than 24 points to every opponent and right at 30 points for the last six games. It is fantasy heaven to be sure, but won't get the W's for the Texans.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Schaub passed for 305 yards and two scores when the Titans visited last year. But this year's version has a far better rushing game and has been much less productive passing. Schaub has actually been less inclined to have a good game when at home since that is when Arian Foster has been at his best. Still, Schaub has thrown a score in all but two games and should be a lock for at least one touchdown and decent yardage this week. I am crediting him with a second score though that could end up as two for Foster.

RUNNING BACKS: The Texans have backed off using Derrick Ward and now Arian Foster gets pretty much every carry in games. He has been on a tear for most of the year and has scored in each of the last five games with a total of 13 touchdowns on the season. He not only rushes for big yardage each week, he adds in up to 70 more yards as a receiver. He has become one of the elite runners in the league and a rare workhorse back.

The Titans on the road have been much softer against the run and with a rookie quarterback on their team, chances are that Foster is going to end up with 25 carries this week. The Titans have allowed six scores to running backs in road games and this week should see at least one score with a season high yardage allowed by the Titans.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Andre Johnson turned in 78 yards and one score on four receptions against the visiting Titans in 2009. He had 149 yards and two scores in Tennessee earlier that year. He ended up on Revis Island last week but had scored three times in the previous four games and topped 100 yards in each. Kevin Walter has been largely a nonfactor since week three and Jacoby Jones comes off his first game of the year with no catches. Johnson is the only reasonable fantasy start here and one that has posted consistent stats.

The Titans have allowed five wideouts to gain over 100 yards so far and Johnson should have an excellent shot at a score this week. The game will feature mostly rushing by both teams but Johnson is always going to get his ten targets per game.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels remains out but Joel Dreessen scored on a 43-yard pass when he was left uncovered last week. But he won't be needed as much this week and has been only marginally productive in relief of Daniels. There is a chance of a score heading his way but it is not worth the risk of getting a goose egg like he has posted twice this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 20 1 21 15 10 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 16 16 9 27 31 13
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) HOU -4 15 -12 12 21 -19

WEEK 12
2010
NE at DET TB at BAL PHI at CHI MIA at OAK
NO at DAL JAC at NYG MIN at WAS STL at DEN
CIN at NYJ CAR at CLE GB at ATL SD at IND
  TEN at HOU PIT at BUF KC at SEA SF at ARI
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