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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI *CHI at DET *CLE at MIA *DAL at IND
*JAC at TEN *ATL at TB *SF at GB *CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN *OAK at SD *PIT at BAL
*Updated WAS at NYG *BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE

Prediction: DEN 20, KC 31

This is a rematch of week ten when the Broncos destroyed the Chiefs 49-29 in Denver. The Chiefs won their next two games while the Broncos lost both of theirs. The Chiefs are also 5-0 at home and Denver is just 1-4 on the road. The Chiefs lead the AFC West by one game over the suddenly resurgent Chargers.

Denver Broncos (3-8)
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @JAC L 17-24 10 KC W 49-29
2 SEA W 31-14 11 @SD L 14-35
3 IND L 13-27 12 STL L 33-36
4 @TEN W 26-20 13 @KC --
5 @BAL L 17-31 14 @ARI --
6 NYJ L 20-24 15 @OAK --
7 OAK L 14-59 16 HOU --
8 @SF L 16-24 17 SD --
9 Bye - - - -
Broncos Report | Statistics | Roster
DENVER at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Orton - - 280,2
RB Knowshon Moreno 50 50,1 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 40 -
WR Eddie Royal - 40 -
WR Brandon Lloyd - 90,1 -
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs win was the only one in the last seven weeks and the team has been hit with their own camera scandal and subsequent fines by the NFL. As good as the Broncos looked in week ten, they looked that bad the next week in San Diego and then could not even keep pace with the Rams. This is shaping up to be HC Josh McDaniels final season and three straight road games starting now are unlikely to stem that tide.

QUARTERBACK: While Kyle Orton scored in every game this year, he has been much less prolific in away games with only seven scores in five trips from Denver. He has maintained excellent yardage in those road ventures though with around 300 yards or more every time. Against the Chiefs in week ten, Orton passed for 296 yards and his only four-touchdown game of the year.

But the Chiefs have been far stingier at home with never more than two passing scores allowed and no games over 300 yards. Put those together and around 300 yards and two scores are the best you can hope for this week. Orton only passed for 180 yards and two scores in Kansas City last year.

RUNNING BACKS: Knowshon Moreno had his best game of the season in week ten when he gained 106 yards on 22 carries against the visiting Chiefs and he scored on a pass while catching three for 50 yards that day. Knowshon has not exceeded 60 rushing yards in any other game but has been used as a receiver rather heavily in the last three games. He has caught at least three passes in each game and not fallen below 50 yards in those games. Moreno has taken a much larger share of the running back duties with good results lately.

The problem is that the Chiefs have not allowed any runner to score in Kansas City this year and none have gained more than 78 yards. Expect Moreno to still be a factor but to rely on his receiving yardage to maintain his fantasy value.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon Lloyd scored in each of the last four games and twice had two scores - both at home though. He continues to be one of the biggest surprises of 2010 though his yardage has waned in recent weeks and he has not topped 100 yards since back in week eight. Lloyd had 90 yards on six catches and two scores on the Chiefs three weeks ago and Jabbar Gaffney had 57 yards and a score in that game as well - his only touchdown since week one. Gaffney is just a possession receiver who has been locked in around three catches per game now. Eddie Royal comes off one of his best efforts with 74 yards and a score against the Rams but he's been held to less than 40 yards in the six games previous to last Sunday including only 39 yards versus the Chiefs.

Lloyd should manage to continue his scoring streak but repeating the two scores would be unlikely. Expect very good yardage from him but only moderate games from the others as always.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 2 23 1 32 25 31
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 22 13 23 6 9 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) DEN 20 -10 22 -26 -16 -29


Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD W 21-14 10 @DEN L 29-49
2 @CLE W 16-14 11 ARI W 31-13
3 SF W 31-10 12 @SEA W 42-24
4 Bye - 13 DEN --
5 @IND L 9-19 14 @SD --
6 @HOU L 31-35 15 @STL --
7 JAC W 42-20 16 TEN --
8 BUF W 13-10 17 OAK --
9 @OAK L 20-23 - - -
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 230,2
RB Jamaal Charles 110,2 30 -
RB Thomas Jones 40,1 - -
TE Tony Moeaki - 40 -
WR Chris Chambers - 20 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 80,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs rolled up two big wins over the Cards and Seahawks since losing to the Broncos and scored big points in the process. There can be no taking this week lightly but the bigger game comes the following Sunday when they meet the Chargers in San Diego in a game that will likely determine the winner of the AFC West. The Chiefs won their season opener against the Bolts and will be favored in all other games besides that one. The AFC West title will largely won in the next two weeks.

QUARTERBACK: Despite the loss in Denver, Matt Cassel had a career game there when he passed for 469 yards and four touchdowns while throwing 53 times - just about twice what he typically has in most games. Cassel has thrown for multiple scores in six of his last seven games though his yardage has been less than 200 in most weeks.

The Broncos have been more inclined to limit their opponents to less than 200 pass yards though Cassel opened the flood gates since the Broncos have allowed seven scores in the two games since they last played. The Chiefs never had a chance to establish their running attack in the previous matchup and will this time. That will leave Cassel with one of his lesser games.

RUNNING BACKS: Though the split continues to depress what could have been for Jamaal Charles , he comes off a 22 carry, 173 yard effort in Seattle and he has been over 100 total yards in each of the last five games. Thomas Jones scored twice in the last home game but otherwise has not been much more than a way to keep Charles from hitting contract incentives. Excellent example was last week when Jones ran for 68 yards on 10 carries while Charles had his 22-173 day even though Jones started the game and took most of the early touches.

Back in Denver three weeks ago, Charles was held to only 41 yards on 14 carries but scored once on his five catches for 80 yards. Jones was limited to only three yards on four carries in that game. The trap wa set three weeks ago but it is not going to happen again this week. the Broncos have allowed 17 scores to running backs this year and well over 100 rush yards per opponent. Look for a bounce back game by Charles with enough left over for Jones to offer marginal points as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dexter McCluster remains out though no official word has been given about the rookie who has been missing since week seven. Dwayne Bowe has been having a season for the ages and not only has scored in each of the last seven games, he has 14 touchdowns on the season and two or more in each of the last three games. Bowe had his best game of the year when he scored twice and gained 186 yards on 13 catches against the Broncos in week ten. Champ Bailey gave him plenty of cushion in that game though but Bowe has been literally unstoppable in recent weeks.

Bowe remains a starter this week of course but none of the other wideouts here are reliable enough to merit a fantasy consideration.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Moeaki only had one catch for 39 yards in the last meeting with the Broncos and only managed one catch last week though it went for a touchdown. There's a fair chance of a score here since the Broncos just gave up three touchdowns to New England tight ends last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 16 2 12 22 21 19
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 28 31 22 30 16 15
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) KC 12 29 10 8 -5 -4

WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI CHI at DET CLE at MIA DAL at IND
JAC at TEN ATL at TB SF at GB CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN OAK at SD PIT at BAL
  WAS at NYG BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE
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