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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI *CHI at DET *CLE at MIA *DAL at IND
*JAC at TEN *ATL at TB *SF at GB *CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN *OAK at SD *PIT at BAL
*Updated WAS at NYG *BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE

Prediction: NO 30, CIN 14

The Saints hit the road with an 8-3 record and a four game winning streak but still trail the Falcons. They are 4-1 in road games this year. The Bengals are sporting an NFL worst eight game losing streak. The only question here is if the Bengals make it a close, frustrating loss or just a "let's beat the traffic" sort of a blowout.

New Orleans Saints (8-3)
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN W 14-9 10 Bye -
2 @SF W 25-22 11 SEA W 34-19
3 ATL L 24-27 12 @DAL W 30-27
4 CAR W 16-14 13 @CIN --
5 @ARI L 20-30 14 STL --
6 @TB W 31-6 15 @BAL --
7 CLE L 17-30 16 @ATL --
8 PIT W 20-10 17 TB --
9 @CAR W 34-3 - - -
Saints Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ORLEANS at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees - - 300,2
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 - -
TE Jimmy Graham - 30 -
WR Marques Colston - 80,1 -
WR Lance Moore - 50 -
WR Devery Henderson - 50 -
WR Robert Meachem - 60,1 -
PK Garrett Hartley 3 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Saints still have an uphill battle to get the division title again this year thanks to the Falcons who already have one win over them. The next two weeks should be winnable but then playing at Baltimore and at Atlanta will be plenty tough. Even the season finale against the Bucs is no afterthought. But the Saints have found their scoring ability again with three straight games over 30 points and the Bengals spot opponents 24 points to start with anyway.

QUARTERBACK: Drew Brees only had one touchdown pass in Dallas but his 352 passing yards were in line with his high expectations and that was the first time in seven weeks that he did not have multiple scores. Brees is a lock for 250 yards every week and half the time he tops 300 yards.

The Bengals have played very few teams with a good passing game and in the last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick showed up and threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns. The yards and scores are there, it depends on how many Brees wants to take.

RUNNING BACKS: The Saints now sport the most convoluted backfield in the league that uses three different running backs and maybe more. Reggie Bush came back last week but only had one rush and one catch. Chris Ivory is the most consistent player and he scored twice in Dallas but only had seven carries for 38 yards. Julius Jones had the most work with ten carries for 45 yards and three catches for 21 yards but that could have been as much about him facing his old team as anything. Jones had only been taking five or six carries in recent games.

Pierre Thomas might clear this up were he to return but that continues to be a concept instead of a reality and he may not play again this year. Until then, I will project for Ivory only because he is the most likely to run in a score but there will be a couple more players used.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mirroring the backfield are the wide receivers - all four matter at least in some weeks. Devery Henderson seemed to be phased out and then had 97 yards on four catches in Dallas. Lance Moore has six touchdowns on the season but rarely more than 60 yards in a game. Marques Colston has been hot lately with two efforts over 100 yards and four scores over the last four games. Robert Meachem only had one catch but it was for 55 yards and set up the game winning score in Dallas. Meachem had two scores in the previous week though rarely any yardage.

The Bengals secondary is bad and has been getting worse. At home over the last two games they surrendered six touchdowns to wideouts. That means a crapshoot with these wideouts but at least Colston should be a low risk for a score and good game.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeremy Shockey was inactive last week because of his ribs and Jimmy Graham has become a bigger factor in the last month with a score and 72 yards agianst the visiting Seahawks. On the road a score is less likely and the Bengals are decent against the position. I will assume Shockey remains out.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 5 18 7 5 9 25
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 5 19 25 11 25 31
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NO 0 1 18 6 16 6


Cincinnati Bengals (2-9)
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NE L 24-38 10 @IND L 17-23
2 BAL W 15-10 11 BUF L 31-49
3 @CAR W 20-7 12 @NYJ L 10-26
4 @CLE L 20-23 13 NO --
5 TB L 21-24 14 @PIT --
6 Bye - 15 CLE --
7 @ATL L 32-39 16 SD --
8 MIA L 14-22 17 @BAL --
9 PIT L 21-27 - - -
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer - - 240,1
RB Cedric Benson 70,1 10 -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 40 -
WR Chad Ochocinco - 70,1 -
WR Terrell Owens - 50 -
WR Jordan Shipley - 60 -
PK Clint Stitser - 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals have signed Clint Stitser as their newest kicker after releasing Aaron Pettrey for missing two very easy kicks last week. The season is winding down with only the home stand against the Browns as a reasonable expectation of one more win. HC Marvin Lewis will no doubt be gone in the offseason after winning the 2009 Coach of the Year. That's what it is like to be a Bengal.

QUARTERBACK: Carson Palmer's seven game streak with multiple passing touchdowns ended in New York when the Jets held him to only one score and 135 yards. Palmer has been as good as 412 yards and as bad as 134 yards and in the end it is mostly about how much trash time scores and yards they can get because most of the losses were not by merely a field goal. That all counts up well enough in fantasy but becomes a problem against a good secondary that does not let up - like the Saints that rank #1 against quarterbacks and wideouts which are the only two point generating parts of this offense.

The Saints have only allowed seven passing scores this year and only Matt Ryan was able to post as many as two touchdowns. Palmer is at home and the Saints have faced a pretty soft list of quarterbacks but even Kitna at home had no scores on them. Expect one score and decent yardage - more could happen but it would be unusual.

RUNNING BACKS: Cedric Benson plods along with mostly mediocre stats each week but he has been better when at home where he scored in the last two games in Cincy. And his yardage has tended to uptick there as well. He still has a minimal role as a receiver and yet gets to have all but perhaps two or three carries each week.

The Saints are about average against the position and have allowed five scores to opposing runners on the road. but only two players have been able to run for over 100 yards and Benson is just an average runner on a good day. He has an excellent shot at a score but his yardage should remain moderate at best.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chad Ochocinco was predictably held in check last week in New York when he only had 41 yards on four catches but that is not much different than any other week. Take away the 108 yards in Indy and the 159 yards of the season opener and Ochocinco has spend the entire year with around 30 to 50 yards each week and only two other scores. Terrell Owens was also held to only 17 yards on three catfches in his matchup with Dare lle Revis. Those are notable because the Saints arrive with the #1 secondary against wide receivers. They have allowed only three touchdowns to a wide receiver in the entire year and Roddy White was the only receiver you would have expected. Owens will match up with CB Jabari Greer this week and that should make it two games in a row that Owens has nothing to crow about when it is over.

I actually like Ochocinco to score here. His previous four touchdowns came with three in tough road venues like IND, ATL and NE. It is no lock of course, but the better bet on this team.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham is coming on for a rookie but he only has three touchdowns and usually around 30 or 40 yards per week. He is good for the yardage but the Saints have not allowed a tight end touchdown since week three.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 14 29 8 25 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 1 17 1 20 8 22
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) CIN -13 -12 -7 -5 -14 0

WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI CHI at DET CLE at MIA DAL at IND
JAC at TEN ATL at TB SF at GB CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN OAK at SD PIT at BAL
  WAS at NYG BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE
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