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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI *CHI at DET *CLE at MIA *DAL at IND
*JAC at TEN *ATL at TB *SF at GB *CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN *OAK at SD *PIT at BAL
*Updated WAS at NYG *BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE

Prediction: NYJ 23, NE 26

This is THE game for the AFC East and a great choice for Monday Night Football. Both teams sport NFL best 9-2 records and the Pats are 5-0 at home while the Jets are 5-0 on the road. This should be a cold game but no rain or snow.

New York Jets (9-2)
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BAL L 9-10 10 @CLE W 26-20
2 NE W 28-14 11 HOU W 30-27
3 @MIA W 31-23 12 CIN W 26-10
4 @BUF W 38-14 13 @NE --
5 MIN W 29-20 14 MIA --
6 @DEN W 24-20 15 @PIT --
7 Bye - 16 @CHI --
8 GB L 0-9 17 BUF --
9 @DET W 23-20 - - -
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 300,2
RB Shonn Greene 50 10 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 40 40 -
TE Dustin Keller - 40 -
WR Jerricho Cotchery - 30 -
WR Braylon Edwards - 80,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 100,1 -
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Be careful if you rely on Nick Folk since the Jets are considering replacing him. They had Kris Brown in for a tryout but have not yet made any change. The Jets already beat the Patriots back in week two but since the week seven bye, the Jets are just not the same. After losing to the visiting Packers in a shutout, they reeled off four straight wins over very bad teams and had to steal the win at the end of almost every week. Winning close games is important. Making them all close regardless of how bad the opponent is makes for a troublesome situation. The Jets have only faced three winning teams so far and only managed to beat one - the Patriots.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez passed for 220 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting with the Patriots and that was before Santonio Holmes started playing again. Sanchez has scored in every road game this year and over these last four weeks had seven passing scores and two rushing touchdowns along with 300 yards in three of the matchups.

The Patriots defense has allowed at least one passing score every week and almost always two or more. Visitors have passed for no less than 250 yards so it is reasonable to expect at least two scores and healthy yardage here.

RUNNING BACKS: LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 76 yards on 11 carries when the Patriots visited in week two and he added four catches for 26 yards. He has since taken a step back with fewer carries in recent games and usually only 40 or 50 rush yards. He adds a few catches but has not scored since week six. Notable - all of his four scores did come in road games.

Shonn Greene ran for 52 yards on 15 carries in the previous meeting with the Patriots and has since taken on a larger role as the primary runner. He still has only one score on the season and almost no role as a receiver.

The Patriots at home have been very good against running backs who have rushed in only two scores there. No runner has topped 100 yards there so far and the split in workload here assures a mediocre showing for either runner.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Back in week two, Braylon Edwards scored once on the visiting Patriots and gained 45 yards on five receptions while Jerricho Cotchery also scored on his two catches for 26 yards. Since then Santonio Holmes has joined the team and turned in either a 100 yard game or a touchdown or both in the last four weeks. Cotchery has been out for two weeks with a bad groin but expects to play this week even if he is limited on the field. Edwards comes off a bad game against the Bengals but has been consistent with 50 to 80 yards per week and a score in four of the last five road games.

The Pats biggest weakness is against the wideouts and they have already allowed four players to gain over 100 receiving yards there. Look for a nice game here from both Holmes and Edwards but leave Cotchery alone with his still an issue groin.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller had his best game of the year when he posted 115 yards on seven catches against the Patriots along with one touchdown. But he has not scored since week four and has since fallen from favor with Holmes there. He is still a factor but unlikely to score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 18 12 11 15 5 17
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 24 26 23 14 1
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NYJ 13 12 15 8 9 -16


New England Patriots (9-2)
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN W 38-24 10 @PIT W 39-26
2 @NYJ L 14-28 11 IND W 31-28
3 BUF W 38-30 12 @DET W 45-24
4 @MIA W 41-14 13 NYJ --
5 Bye - 14 @CHI --
6 BAL W 23-20 15 GB --
7 @SD W 23-20 16 @BUF --
8 MIN W 28-18 17 MIA --
9 @CLE L 14-34 - - -
Patriots Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ENGLAND vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady - - 250,2
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 60 - -
RB Danny Woodhead 30 30 -
TE Aaron Hernandez - 50,1 -
WR Brandon Tate - 50,1 -
WR Deion Branch - 50 -
WR Wes Welker - 40 -
PK Shayne Graham 4 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Like the Jets, the Patriots have been on a roll lately but unlike the Jets it has been against topflight teams like the Colts and Steelers. The only two losses of the year were a trap game in Cleveland and losing to the Jets. The Patriots have been rolling up the points in recent weeks with no fewer than 31 in every game, With a weak secondary, each game is turning into a shootout. The Patriots have to play in Chicago next week and then host the Packers - this week is important if not critical, but not the only tough game left on the schedule by any means.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady passed for 248 yards and two scores in the game in New York and he has scored in every game since if not multiple times. After a slow stretch at midseason, Brady has been on a four week stretch of multiple touchdown games and even had his season best in Pittsburgh when he passed for 350 yards and three touchdowns. Playing at home Brady has been less prolific mainly because the rushing game has been working better there.

The Jets secondary was giving up yards and scores while Darrelle Revis was on the mend but he is back now and no opponent has passed for more than 250 yards since. Brady should get two scores here because the running game is going to be really challenged but anything more would be seasons highs allowed by the Jets.

RUNNING BACKS: Fred Taylor is back and suiting up for games but he has not played and will just be a backup to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. The burly Green-Ellis has scored nine times this year and turned in decent yardage but he only managed to gain 19 yards on ten carries against the Jets last time,. Danny Woodhead had not started playing by week two but has since developed into the new Kevin Faulk with a bigger role in home games than on the road.

The Jets are #1 against running backs and only three running backs have scored on them and non have gained more than 88 rushing yards. Even the yardage allowed to backs as receivers is low and without a score there as well. Expect a down game from the two runners here. Green-Ellis may end up with a score if the ball is downed within a yard or two of the endzone.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Deion Branch was not with the team when they first played the Jets but Randy Moss was held to two catches for 38 yards and one score in that game. Darrelle Revis has not been assigned but seems most likely to take on either Branch or Wes Welker who will be moving around constantly looking for a better matchup. Welker also scored in the last game with the Jets but only had 38 yards on six catches. Both players are likely to have a tough time scoring and the yardage should remain moderate at best. The Jets just held Terrell Owens (3-17) and Chad Ochocinco (4-41) to very marginal games. Brandon Tate has a shot at a score this week just as Jordan Shipley did last Sunday.

TIGHT ENDS: Aaron Hernandez had a career best 101 yards on six catches in the first meeting with the Jets and he has been at least a minor factor in most games. I like one score to the tight ends and it could be Rob Gronkowski just as easily. But the better corners of the Jets should almost certainly force Brady to search for tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 10 8 19 2 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 15 1 17 18 4 3
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NE 5 -7 -2 16 -10 -4

WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI CHI at DET CLE at MIA DAL at IND
JAC at TEN ATL at TB SF at GB CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN OAK at SD PIT at BAL
  WAS at NYG BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE
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