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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI *CHI at DET *CLE at MIA *DAL at IND
*JAC at TEN *ATL at TB *SF at GB *CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN *OAK at SD *PIT at BAL
*Updated WAS at NYG *BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE

Prediction: OAK 10, SD 34

Update: Ryan Mathews may return to play this week and has been at full practices. MIke Tolbert has a bruised hand and has been held out of practice but so far is expected to play. Mathews role this week is not yet determined but really all he can do is ruin Tolbert's potential day. Antonio Gates has not practices but is not certain yet if he will play. He is not a safe start and his playing will determine how he feels at game time and in the game if he does play.

Update #2: Mathews is listed as probable and had been in full practices this week. He will play at least some. Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates are both questionable but HC Norv Turner said he was optimistic that both can contribute this week.

This is a rematch of week five when the Chargers won 35-27 in Oakland. The Raiders are on a two game losing streak and are only 1-4 on the road while the Chargers are on a four game winning streak and are 4-1 at home.

Oakland Raiders (5-6)
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN L 13-38 10 Bye -
2 STL W 16-14 11 @PIT L 3-35
3 @ARI L 23-24 12 MIA L 17-33
4 HOU L 24-31 13 @SD --
5 SD W 35-27 14 @JAC --
6 @SF L 9-17 15 DEN --
7 @DEN W 59-14 16 IND --
8 SEA W 33-3 17 @KC --
9 KC W 23-20 - - -
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND at SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell - - 180,1
RB Darren McFadden 40 30 -
TE Zach Miller - 10 -
WR Louis Murphy - 40 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 40,1 -
WR Johnnie Lee Higgins - 20 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 30 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: For one brief moment, the Raiders were tied for the AFC West lead two weeks ago but Bruce Gradkowski is gone for the year and Darren McFadden has stopped eating Wheaties or whatever it was that made him a stud instead of a dud. Now the Raiders are back to looking very much like they have for the last decade with a very suspect passing game and a pricey backfield that is not meeting expectations.

QUARTERBACK: An MRI revealed that Bruce Gradkowski has a separated right shoulder and that should end his season. That leaves Jason Campbell behind and he actually took his starting job back in week five when the Chargers knocked Gradkowski out of the game and Campbell threw for 159 yards and one score. Campbell has been as good as two touchdowns in a game against a soft opponent but he has yet to gain more than 204 passing yards in a road game.

The Chargers have one of the best secondaries in the league and have allowed only four passing scores in total to the five visitors to San DIego so far. Look for a very average game here and even one score will be a success.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren McFadden was having a great season until the last two weeks. He suddenly can no longer run in the middle and has only 16 total rush yards from 18 combined carries. At home against the Fins he turned in seven catches for 63 yards but has been limited to two small catches in all road games this year. McFadden was out in week five when the Chargers came to Oakland and Michael Bush took the full load and gained 104 yards and one score on 26 carries. That was a season high for Bush who now is limited to only four or five runs per week.

Chances are very good that the Chargers force the Raiders to abandon the rushing game eventually anyway and McFadden now seems gun shy about getting hit or running between the tackles. Considering that he has had such minimal use as a receiver in road games, his fantasy value takes a big hit this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: In the previous meeting with the Bolts, the only wideout to record a catch was Louis Murphy who had 61 yards on just two receptions. With Campbell at the helm, Jacoby Ford and Darrius Heyward-Bey both had one big game and then almost nothing else. Ford has turned in two nice efforts but last week was with Gradkowski.

That puts a huge risk on all of these receivers for the rest of the year. I am awarding one touchdown but the confidence is low as to where it will end up. The Raiders passing game has once again collapsed.

TIGHT ENDS: Zach Miller was having a great season and then in week eight he had a torn plantar fascia in his foot that still exists. He also had a bad bruise on his fibula and is not a lock to even play this week. He's been a complete nonfactor for three weeks already.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 27 4 31 17 3 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 2 10 2 26 12 29
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) OAK -25 6 -29 9 9 20


San Diego Chargers (6-5)
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC L 14-21 10 Bye -
2 JAC W 38-13 11 DEN W 35-14
3 @SEA L 20-27 12 @IND W 36-14
4 ARI W 41-10 13 OAK --
5 @OAK L 27-35 14 KC --
6 @STL L 17-20 15 SF --
7 NE L 20-23 16 @CIN --
8 TEN W 33-25 17 @DEN --
9 @HOU W 29-23 - - -
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 300,3
RB Darren Sproles 10 40,1 -
RB Ryan Mathews 30 - -
RB Mike Tolbert 50,1 - -
TE Antonio Gates - 50 -
WR Malcolm Floyd - 60,1 -
WR Seyi Ajirotutu - 30 -
WR Legedu Naanee - 70,1 -
PK Nate Kaeding 2 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: Since losing to the Patriots in week seven, the Chargers have been a force with no less than 29 points every week and wins that just keep getting bigger. Taking down Peyton Manning in Indianapolis in a decisive manner served notice that the Chargers were once again a force to reckon with. No matter of all the injuries, this team with Rivers and the defense can apparently beat anyone lately. The remaining schedule of three home games and then in Cincy and Denver could easily be won out and end with a 11-5 final record. The visiting Chiefs next week are the key.

QUARTERBACK: Philip Rivers has not only scored in every game this year, he has scored four times each in the last two weeks and currently has 23 passing scores to tie for the NFL best. He is within eight yards of being the yardage leader as well. Rivers passed for 431 yards and two scores in Oakland back in week five. Making this week even more shiny and bright is that the Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha has aggravated his ankle injury and may not play.

The Raiders already have allowed no less than two passing scores to every road opponent so look for a nice showing here by Rivers.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren Sproles has been a factor recently as a receiver with a touchdown catch in each of the last two home games. He rarely has anything more than 15 rushing yards and his production as a receiver has been almost entirely at home. Sproles gained only one rushing yard in Oakland this year but had 32 yards on three catches. Mike Tolbert scored in that tilt though he only had 11 yards on 12 rushes. Ryan Mathews gained 59 yards on nine runs that week.

Mathews has a chance to play this week but I will hold him out of the projections for now. Expect a decent game by Tolbert this week with a rushing score and Sproles could show up yet again with a passing score though that is a bit less likely.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Hopefully you did not blink last week and miss Vincent Jackson. He strained his right calf and now is expected to miss a couple of weeks. Malcom Floyd's second game back came with no catches against the Colts but he is said to be fine. Legedu Naanee also returned and had 38 yards on three receptions while Seyi Ajirotutu had one catch. The hardest job in San Diego is probably the guy that writes up and proofs the game programs. They are probably printing them while the lines are forming outside the stadium.

Back in week five, Malcom Floyd had a monster game with eight catches for 213 yards and one score in Oakland. No other wideout had more than one catch if that.

Have to expect at least one score to this unit and with Asomugha ailing and maybe out, there should be at least one big showing. Certainly Floyd could do that again if he is healthy enough. Both starting wideouts are at least decent plays this week with definite upside for a big game.

TIGHT ENDS: Antonio Gates was able to return last week and he turned in 46 yards on four catches which was a major step down from his previous pace. But his plantar fascia and turf toe are still very much an issue and he just gutted it out. A healthy Gates would turn in 100 yards and a score in this game (and did in week five) but he is still on the mend.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 4 3 20 1 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 20 27 10 19 10 18
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) SD 16 24 -10 18 -2 8

WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI CHI at DET CLE at MIA DAL at IND
JAC at TEN ATL at TB SF at GB CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN OAK at SD PIT at BAL
  WAS at NYG BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE
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