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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI *CHI at DET *CLE at MIA *DAL at IND
*JAC at TEN *ATL at TB *SF at GB *CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN *OAK at SD *PIT at BAL
*Updated WAS at NYG *BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE

Prediction: SF 10, GB 31

Update: The 49ers have signed Jeff Reed since Joe Nedney doesn't look healthy enough to play this week. Brian Westbrook has been held out of practice but only to rest him. He is still expected to play. Greg Jennings did not practice on Wednesday to attend the birth of his daughter and not because of his swollen foot. He is expected to play.

The 49ers come off their first road win of the year and they have won four of their last six games. But they are only 1-4 on the road now and heading into Green Bay where the Packers are 4-1 and coming off a loss to the Falcons that ended a four game winning streak. This will be a cold game with a chance for snow.

The Packers won 30-24 when they hosted the 49ers last year.

San Francisco 49ers (4-7)
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SEA L 6-31 10 STL W 23-20
2 NO L 22-25 11 TB L 0-21
3 @KC L 10-31 12 @ARI W 27-6
4 @ATL L 14-16 13 @GB --
5 PHI L 24-27 14 SEA --
6 OAK W 17-9 15 @SD --
7 @CAR L 20-23 16 @STL --
8 DEN W 24-16 17 ARI --
9 Bye - - - -
49ers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN FRANCISCO at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Troy Smith - - 180,1
RB Brian Westbrook 60 10 -
TE Vernon Davis - 30 -
WR Josh Morgan - 40 -
WR Ted Ginn Jr. - 20 -
WR Michael Crabtree - 50,1 -
PK Jeff Reed 1 FG 1 XP -
PK Joe Nedney 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The 49ers just lost Frank Gore for the season with a hip injury and Troy Smith apparently still has not been informed that Vernon Davis is more than just a blocking tight end. The win over the Cardinals was great but losing Gore and having a struggling pass offense is going to be a killer for the three road games coming in the next four weeks. On the plus side - facing the Seahawks and Cardinals at home left to play. Ah, that wonderful NFC West.

QUARTERBACK: Troy Smith is likely to hang onto the starting job with the 49ers winning three of the last four games. But Smith has not passed for more than one score in any game and just one had more than 200 passing yards. What is even worse is that Vernon Davis has been a nonfactor for exactly the four weeks that Smith has started.

Alex Smith passed for 227 yards and three scores in Green Bay last year.

No opponent has scored more than two passing touchdowns on the Packers and only two teams managed as many as those two. Expect no more than one passing score from Smith and even that may not happen. This will be a cold game with a much reduced respect for the rushing game.

RUNNING BACKS: The loss of Frank Gore did not matter against the Cardinals of course and Brian Westbrook got to rekindle yesteryear when he ran 23 times for 136 yards and a score. But HC Mike Singletary has since said that workload is not sustainable for the aging Westbrook and that he would be relieved more by Anthony Dixon who becomes the backup and short yardage back. Even Dixon had 14 runs for 54 yards and a score last Monday.

The 49ers fortunes were already flagging and now the best offensive player is on IR and the other (Davis) doesn't contribute much.

Gore only rushed seven times in Green Bay last year but gained 59 yards and added a touchdown on a catch.

The Packers have only allowed two scores to running backs in Green Bay all year and only Adrian Peterson has been better than 73 rush yards. Since Westbrook was not used on a single pass last week it must be assumed that he will take time to assume those duties. That makes Westbrook a poor play for this week and Dixon as a nonfactor. Westbrook could be a great outlet for Smith but it remains to be seen.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Michael Crabtree is still cranking out the low yardage every week but he has scored in five of the last seven games despite ending with fewer than 50 yards in most. Ted Ginn Jr. has never scored or had any real success and Josh Morgan has been without a touchdown since back in week three. If it is going to happen here, it happens to Crabtree and it doesn't happen that much.

Crabtree caught four passes for 77 yards and a score on the Packers last season.

Any score on the 49ers pretty much has to end up with either Crabtree or Vernon Davis. And since Davis has become a new member of the great unwashed horde of non-scoring tight ends, that makes Crabtree the most likely bet for a touchdown here but as always - not much yardage to be attached.

TIGHT ENDS: The trend is plenty disturbing. With Alex Smith as the quarterback, Vernon Davis was turning in 70+ yard games and had scored four straight weeks through week seven when Smith was injured. When Troy Smith took over, Davis has never scored and has dropped to only one game that had more than 32 yards in it. Twice he was held to single catches. It's a fantasy team killer right when you needed him the most.

Davis turned in six catches for 108 yards and a score against the Packers in 2009.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 26 15 30 7 31 27
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 7 4 5 17 11 6
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) SF -19 -11 -25 10 -20 -21


Green Bay Packers (7-4)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @PHI W 27-20 10 Bye -
2 BUF W 34-7 11 @MIN W 31-3
3 @CHI L 17-20 12 @ATL L 17-20
4 DET W 28-26 13 SF --
5 @WAS L 13-16 14 @DET --
6 MIA L 20-23 15 @NE --
7 MIN W 28-24 16 NYG --
8 @NYJ W 9-0 17 CHI --
9 DAL W 45-7 - - -
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs 49ers Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers - - 280,3
RB Brandon Jackson 50,1 20 -
WR Greg Jennings - 100,2 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 30 -
WR Donald Driver - 30 -
WR James Jones - 80,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The loss in Atlanta was tough but the Packers had won their previous four and get a nice stretch with the 49ers and Lions up next. But the Packers are going to have to step up to win the NFC North thanks to a brutal season ending with the Patriots, Giants and Bears. That final game could be for all the NFC North marbles.

QUARTERBACK: Aaron Rodgers has never scored less than two touchdowns in a home game this year and been better than 280 yards in all but one Rodgers not only has 20 passing scores on the year, but he has added four rushing touchdowns as well. Rodgers passed for 344 yards and two scores on the 49ers last year.

The 49ers have allowed multiple scores in most of the road games already as well as 250+ yards in most. Expect a standard good game here from Rodgers as long as there is no driving snow.

RUNNING BACKS: The Packers rushing offense is so bad that even they do not pretend to expect anything better. Brandon Jackson has not rushed for more than 60 yards since week five and he has only four touchdowns on the season, He sometimes adds a few receptions to help his totals but this offense has all but abandoned the running game by now. They remain the worst fantasy backfield in the league second only to the Seahawks.

The Packers rushed for 145 yards and one score on the visiting 49ers last season. That is just not going to happen here.

The 49ers rushing defense is at least decent and has only given up four rushing touchdowns this year and not one game over 100 yards. Cut that in half and maybe Jackson can rise to the occasion. On the plus side - his three rushing scores were all at home.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Greg Jennings has a foot strain from last week but it happened during the game and did not affect him then so it is not expected to be an issue this week though he may be rested some. Jennings has been red hot for six weeks now and has a team high nine receiving scores including in each of the last four home games. James Jones has been more of a factor at home as well with his big games against the visiting Cowboys and Vikings. Jordy Nelson showed up last week with a touchdown on five catches for 61 yards. Donald Driver is back for two weeks now but has become the old man with the walker in the crowd.

Jennings led all the receivers with 126 yards and one score on the 49ers last time.

Expect a big game from Jennings this week provided his foot doesn't act up. James should also at least get good yardage here if not a score as well.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 3 31 4 20 18 2
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 14 8 15 5 24 19
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) GB 11 -23 11 -15 6 17

WEEK 13
2010
HOU at PHI CHI at DET CLE at MIA DAL at IND
JAC at TEN ATL at TB SF at GB CAR at SEA
DEN at KC NO at CIN OAK at SD PIT at BAL
  WAS at NYG BUF at MIN STL at ARI NYJ at NE
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