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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 14
2010
IND at TEN *NE at CHI *TB at WAS *KC at SD
*CIN at PIT *CLE at BUF *SEA at SF DEN at ARI
ATL at CAR *NYG at MIN STL at NO PHI at DAL
*Updated GB at DET OAK at JAC MIA at NYJ *BAL at HOU

Prediction: SEA 17, SF 24

Update: Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu were held out of practice and they may both not get in any practices but HC Pete Carroll will not rule them out until game time. I am removing Obomanu from the projections and make sure they are active on Sunday before you use them. In the best case they would be limited in the game.

Update #2: Both Obomanu and Williams missed all practices through Friday. They are listed as questionable despite never practicing and could end up as game time decisions. Too much risk to rely on.

This is a rematch of the season opener when the Seahawks won 31-6 in Seattle. The Seahawks are tied for first place in the NFC West with the Rams but are only 2-4 in road games. The 49ers are just 3-3 at home.

Seattle Seahawks (6-6)
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF W 31-6 10 @ARI W 36-18
2 @DEN L 14-31 11 @NO L 19-34
3 SD W 27-20 12 KC L 24-42
4 @STL L 3-20 13 CAR W 31-14
5 Bye - 14 @SF --
6 @CHI W 23-20 15 ATL --
7 ARI W 22-10 16 @TB --
8 @OAK L 3-33 17 STL --
9 NYG L 7-41 - - -
Seahawks Report | Statistics | Roster
SEATTLE at SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck - - 200,1
RB Justin Forsett 20 30 -
RB Marshawn Lynch 40,1 20 -
TE John Carlson - 10 -
WR Golden Tate - 40 -
WR Deon Butler - 60,1 -
WR Ben Obomanu - 30 -
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Seahawks come off a dominating win over the 1-11 visiting Panthers but their only other win in the last five weeks was over the Cardinals. The Seahawks have a fairly daunting ending schedule with matchups against all winning records other than this week. The division will likely do down to the final week when the Rams come to visit.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Hasselbeck has only thrown ten touchdowns and yet had 11 interceptions as the new offense has been installed and yet not really shown much progress. Hasselbeck had a few games with higher yardage but has never thrown more than two scores in any game and only did that twice - both at home. On the road he has never had more than one score. The absence of Mike Williams has taken the air out of the tires.

Hasselbeck passed for 170 yards and two scores back in the season opener. At home the 49ers have only allowed seven passing scores so look for the standard one touchdown game by Hasselbeck with moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: Marshawn Lynch had his first big game of the year when he ran for 83 yards on 21 carries and scored three touchdowns against the lowly Panthers. Note - "the lowly Panthers". Lynch had never gained more than 48 rushing yards in any other game and never had more than 36 yards in a road game. Justin Forsett has disappeared for a few weeks and popped up with 60 yards on six carries.

Back in the season opener, the Seahawks only rushed for 73 yards on 21 rushes split between three runners and that was in Seattle. Look for Lynch and Forsett to come back to earth this week but for Lynch to have a shot at one score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The passing game has been in trouble here since Mike Williams left in week 11 with a sprained ankle that is expected to extend into this game as well. Williams has been the only receiver of note this year and had two 100 yard games in a row before being injured. Ben Obomanu replaced Williams and had a big game in week 12 but suffered a deep laceration between his fingers and is no lock to play this week and even less likely to play well if he tries. Golden Tate took his place but has yet to have any game with more than 52 yards and he has never scored. Deon Butler has been only slightly better.

I will assume a limited Obomanu can play and that makes Butler the most likely to catch a score but it could go anywhere if it even happens.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 30 15 27 14 12
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 20 10 22 1 25 21
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) SEA -7 -20 7 -26 11 9


San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SEA L 6-31 10 STL W 23-20
2 NO L 22-25 11 TB L 0-21
3 @KC L 10-31 12 @ARI W 27-6
4 @ATL L 14-16 13 @GB L 16-34
5 PHI L 24-27 14 SEA --
6 OAK W 17-9 15 @SD --
7 @CAR L 20-23 16 @STL --
8 DEN W 24-16 17 ARI --
9 Bye - - - -
49ers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN FRANCISCO vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith - - 290,2
RB Brian Westbrook 50 10 -
RB Anthony Dixon 40,1 - -
TE Vernon Davis - 80,1 -
WR Josh Morgan - 50 -
WR Ted Ginn Jr. - 30 -
WR Michael Crabtree - 100,1 -
PK Jeff Reed 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: After losing their first five games, the 49ers have been alternating between wins and losses every week. This matchup should not be the final "winnable" game thanks to the Cardinals visiting in week 17 but the Seahawks arrive with holes in their passing game that they cannot hope to cover up like they did against the Panthers last week. The 49ers get to go for some retribution for being drubbed in the season opener.

QUARTERBACK: The 49ers have switched back to Alex Smith and the Troy Smith era has run it's course. That means the passing game reverts back to more use of Vernon Davis and the chance that the 49er quarterback takes off on a run is over. Smith passed for 225 yards and no scores in the season opener in Seattle.

The Seahawks secondary has been much less formidable on the road and no team has passed for less than 289 yards against them. Not one. Four had over 300 yards and the Seahawks allowed 11 passing scores over the six road games. Smith only had one game over 300 yards but that was at home. Hard to expect more than the minimum allowed by the Seahawks and two scores should happen.

RUNNING BACKS: The first game without Frank Gore and it was evident that both Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon are on equal footing now. Both players had nine carries with Westbrook gaining 31 yards and Dixon turning in 33 yards in Green Bay against a top five rushing defense.

Back in the opener in Seattle, Gore rushed for only 38 yards on 17 carries as the Seahawks swamped the visiting 49ers. They never looked that good again and have since stumbled to be one of the worst defenses at stopping the run and allowed 12 rushing touchdowns since that game. I like one rushing score here and that could go to either runner but since Dixon is more likely used near the goal line he will get the nudge. The split in carries means neither runner is going to have major significance in any game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The fortunes of the wideouts have been meager outside of Michael Crabtree who has five of the six touchdowns caught by a wideout. Crabtree has scored all but one touchdown in home games and the Seahawks have been one of the worst teams at stopping the wide receivers. Expect the best game from Crabtree in a while and yet even a bad defense is not enough to get much for the other receivers.

TIGHT ENDS: It's a double whammy. After weeks of being ignored by Troy Smith, Vernon Davis finally had a big game thanks mostly to a missed tackle and left Green Bay with four catches for 126 yards and one score. Now Alex Smith is back and he was there when Davis strung four weeks straight with a score. Davis gained 73 yards on eight catches in Seattle earlier this year, look for about the same with a score this time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 25 17 31 4 28 29
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 24 28 31 7 14 17
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) SF -1 11 0 3 -14 -12

WEEK 14
2010
IND at TEN NE at CHI TB at WAS KC at SD
CIN at PIT CLE at BUF SEA at SF DEN at ARI
ATL at CAR NYG at MIN STL at NO PHI at DAL
  GB at DET OAK at JAC MIA at NYJ BAL at HOU
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