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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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WEEK 14
2010
IND at TEN *NE at CHI *TB at WAS *KC at SD
*CIN at PIT *CLE at BUF *SEA at SF DEN at ARI
ATL at CAR *NYG at MIN STL at NO PHI at DAL
*Updated GB at DET OAK at JAC MIA at NYJ *BAL at HOU

Prediction: TB 20, WAS 17

Update: Mike Williams is bothered by a sore knee and missed practice on Thursday. This is a condition that has existed for a few weeks according to HC Raheem Morris but this is the first time it has made him miss practice. The matchup is very nice for Williams but he is not a lock to play depending on his knee. Make sure he is active and that his knee is okay on Sunday.

Ryan Torain is back to full practices and should be active this week. It is less certain if he would immediately have a full load or be used in combination with the others so there is much risk in relying in any of the backs for the Skins.

Update: The forecast calls for rain but the wind should not be an issue here. Mike Williams has returned to full practices and will play.

Here's a coin toss game between the Bucs who should not be that good and the Skins who should not be that bad. The Buccaneers are 4-2 in road games and on a two game losing streak while the Skins are only 2-4 at home and also on a two game losing streak. This could go either way but each of the Bucs losses were to a division leader (or close). The Skins have lost four of their last five and barely beat a wounded Titans team. This should end up a low scoring game.

The Redskins won 16-13 when they hosted the Buccaneers last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CLE W 17-14 10 CAR W 31-16
2 @CAR W 20-7 11 @SF W 21-0
3 PIT L 13-38 12 @BAL L 10-17
4 Bye - 13 ATL L 24-28
5 @CIN W 24-21 14 @WAS --
6 NO L 6-31 15 DET --
7 STL W 18-17 16 SEA --
8 @ARI W 38-35 17 @NO --
9 @ATL L 21-27 - - -
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman - - 180,1
RB LeGarrette Blount 80,1 - -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 30 -
WR Mike Williams - 60,1 -
WR Arrelious Benn - 30 -
WR Sammie Stroughter - 20 -
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers have lost their premier cornerback Aqib Talib which will make a difference in future games if not this one as well. Talib tore a hip tendon last week in the Falcons game. These last two losses have likely already been enough to keep the Bucs out of the playoffs but they could easily end up 9-5 or even 10-6 if they can win here. It has been a very encouraging season for a very young team.

QUARTERBACK: Josh Freeman has thrown for at least one score in all but one game this year and he's been very consistent around 180 yards or so for the past month. Freeman rarely has more than one score and never more than two but he makes few mistakes. He has only thrown six interceptions this season.

The Bucs only passed for 106 yards and one score at Washington last year.

The Skins have been allowing every opponent to throw for a score until the Vikings won by just running the ball. Expect just the standard Freeman game here even though the Skins are weak in the secondary.

RUNNING BACKS: LeGarrette Blount comes off his second game over the 100 yard mark when he gained 103 on 20 carries and scored once against the Falcons. That gives him five touchdowns on the season and he has gained 70 yards or more in all but the toughest road games. The Skins are below average against running backs with five touchdowns allowed in just the last three home games. Each of the last four visitors rushed for over 100 yards as well.

Blount is getting better and is consistent with moderate rushing yards and almost never catching any passes. He's a low-end starter this week but could score once.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Williams has the lone fantasy value here and with seven touchdowns on the season he is a factor nearly every week. Favorable too is that five of those seven scores were in road games and the Skins have been weak against the position all year long and mostly to the opponent's #1 wideout. Williams has only gained over 100 yards in one game so expect only moderate yardage and a decent chance for a touchdown. Arrelious Benn and Sammie Stroughter are just there for a couple of catches per game.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow has scored in two of the last four games but those were his only touchdowns on the season and he has gained more than 45 yards in only one of the last eight games. Expect just his normal marginal yardage and no score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 18 20 26 16 27 15
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 27 25 26 12 20 26
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) TB 9 5 0 -4 -7 11


Washington Redskins (5-7)
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL W 13-7 10 PHI L 28-59
2 HOU L 27-30 11 @TEN W 19-16
3 @STL L 16-30 12 MIN L 13-17
4 @PHI W 17-12 13 @NYG L 7-31
5 GB W 16-13 14 TB --
6 IND L 24-27 15 @DAL --
7 @CHI W 17-14 16 @JAC --
8 @DET L 25-37 17 NYG --
9 Bye - - - -
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Donovan McNabb - - 230,1
RB James Davis 30 10 -
RB Ryan Torain 40 10 -
TE Chris Cooley - 50 -
WR Santana Moss - 60,1 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 50 -
WR Brandon Banks - 20 -
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Redskins have fallen from contention a few games back and the schedule is not their friend with four straight games either on the road or against a winning record. The offense here remains remarkably unchanged since the rushing game has been decimated by injury and the passing offense has sort of chugged along without seeming any better than when it started which is a problem when there is a new quarterback and a new offense being installed. This game is likely the winnable of the remaining matchups but the team has been on a downswing since midseason.

QUARTERBACK: Donovan McNabb has scored in every game since the season opener but that's been only one touchdown in all but one game. He has varied greatly in yardage but always the one score and that continues. The Buccaneers have allowed a passing score in all but one road game with usually only 200 or so passing yards which matches right up with what the Redskins usually do.

No reason to expect different from McNabb now.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Torain may practice this week after being out since week eight with a hamstring strain. But until he practices and is cleared to play I will not project for him. He'll only make the backfield even more convoluted anyway. James Davis had his biggest workload yet when he ran nine times for 40 yards and caught three passes for 41 more yards against the Giants last week. Keiland WIlliams only had five carries for 29 yards in the game and his role as a receiver was reduced to only two catches.

Projecting what will happen in this backfield is a tough challenge but it appears that Davis will continue as the primary back and Williams falls back to more relief work at least until Torain can return and change it even more. The Buccaneers are only average against the run at best and most teams score at least once via their running back. I like Davis to get that chance this week but only slightly more than Williams.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Anthony Armstrong caught his second touchdown of the year last week when he had his best showing of the year in New York. Armstrong caught six passes for 97 yards and the one touchdown but that was mostly trash time and the Giants led 28-0 when Armstrong finally scored. Santana Moss has been very quiet lately with only one notable game in the last five weeks and his three scores on the year all came in road games.

The Buccaneers lost their star cornerback and that could help but this unit has been under performing all year anyway. I'll credit Moss with a score but the confidence is pretty low since he only had three on the season and yet is the leader in receiving touchdowns for the team.

TIGHT ENDS: Chris Cooley has not scored since week four but he remains an important part of the passing equation and has been good for five or more receptions in most games. He's a marginal fantasy play because of his lack of scoring but is fairly consistent with his yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 19 16 27 8 17 16
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 11 23 11 14 2 10
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) WAS -8 7 -16 6 -15 -6

WEEK 14
2010
IND at TEN NE at CHI TB at WAS KC at SD
CIN at PIT CLE at BUF SEA at SF DEN at ARI
ATL at CAR NYG at MIN STL at NO PHI at DAL
  GB at DET OAK at JAC MIA at NYJ BAL at HOU
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