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When you’re in eight leagues and your day job involves breaking down the fantasy prospects of every player for every game, it’s inevitable that football is never far from your mind. And since many of the same dilemmas I encounter are ones you the readers bump up against as well, I thought it might make sense to share some of my thought processes with you. There’s no rhyme or reason to the topics to be discussed here, other than at some point they popped into my head, kicking to the side lyrics from some obscure ‘80s song (“We left for Frisco in your Rambler/The radiator running dry/I've never been much of a gambler/and had a preference to fly”) and commanding my attention.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, and with all due respect to Andy Williams I’m of course referring to the fantasy football playoffs. But after managing eight teams (give or take; as I tell my wife when she asks exactly how many leagues I play in, the answer is “eight... that you know about”) for three months it’s time to kick two to the curb, give three the week off (gotta love those byes), and focus on getting three Ws this week.
That’s a lot of free time, and what better way to spend that free time than looking back on what helped me get here—both the good and the bad.
WHAT WORKED: ELITE RECEIVERS, MID-RANGE BACKS
The only draft I took a back in the first round in, I didn’t make the playoffs. Meanwhile, my preferred strategy of loading up on receivers and “settling” for mid-range backs paid dividends across the board.
It’s no use debating this with those who can’t get past running back/running back; it’s like explaining HD cable to someone with a black and white television. In its simplest form, it’s taking elite receivers (my division winning teams are populated by Reggie Wayne (thrice), Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, and Dwayne Bowe) over first-round backs. Those same teams are powered by backs who coming into the season were ranked in the 20s (LeSean McCoy thrice, Ahmad Bradshaw twice), 40s (Darren McFadden), or picked up off the waiver wire (Chris Ivory twice, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Tolbert).
I did have Maurice Jones-Drew on two teams, one a dynasty league squad that went 9-4 and has this week off and the other where he was my first round pick and I’m taking off the rest of the season. The former is stocked at receiver; taking MoJo in the latter left me with Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, and Robert Meachem as my go-to wideouts.
Of course, no “system” is foolproof; my SOFA team battling for a wildcard spot has Wayne and AJ but got stung by the injury bug at running back; had Pierre Thomas and Joseph Addai played more than nine games between them, I’d like to think that playoff berth would be wrapped up. And my FSWA entry that went heavy on pass-catchers not only stumbled with the injuries and/or non-elite performances of Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith, it also missed badly from the top down on running backs: Spiller, Michael Bush, Portis, Ricky Williams. Too bad the late-round flier on Tashard Choice never got a chance to pan out; in a 12-game regular season where the top four teams move on I was out before Choice got his chance.
In the end, though, my teams without a preseason RB1 compiled a 67% winning percentage. I’ll definitely play those odds again.
WHAT DIDN’T: TOP-END QUARTERBACKS
I’ve never shied away from taking a quarterback early on, usually over a back rather than a wide receiver. It goes against the general consensus, but so does taking receivers over backs. While that worked—again—this year, the teams where I went early on quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Tony Romo) compiled a 20-19 record. Waiting a little longer for Matt Schaub (three leagues) or Eli Manning or even cobbling together quarterbacks all year long starting with Palmer and Hasselbeck and currently mixing in Kerry Collins yielded an overall 45-19 mark.
Taking Peyton and Romo required a second- or third-round pick this year; Schaub was more like a fourth or fifth, Eli fifth or later. This year, that was the difference between picking up another quality wideout or starting on those mid-range backs. It’s similar to the WR/RB dichotomy in the first round or two: Would you rather have Wayne/McCoy or Steven Jackson/Chad Ochocinco? Would you rather have Manning/Marion Barber or Schaub/Bradshaw?
Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but if you don’t look back at what worked and what didn’t you’ll make the same mistakes next year. Actually, you might still make the same mistakes next year anyway; even after 20-plus years of playing fantasy football I find myself falling into the same traps. But it doesn’t mean you should just walk into those same traps without looking for a way around.
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That basically sunk everyone who did it. And was so easy to avoid.
I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for the next Priest Holmes to come along. Last year there were a handful of guys in industry mocks and leagues willing to go early for a receiver, and that trend continued this year. Fewer 20-carry guys and the typical annual upheaval among the top 10 backs make it even more important, imho, to get a couple elite receivers early and then a) spend three or four straight picks on backs in the R3-R7 area and b) pack your roster with backs who have talent but lack the opportunity, because more and more frequently that opportunity seems to be presenting itself.
Your point about throwing darts at backup wideouts is an extremely valid one, and one that's been brought up in multiple places at The Huddle (forums, DMD's Tunnel Vision among others). It's especially true if you're not hanging your hat on elite backs. On my teams I typically started the year with six or seven backs following exactly that strategy; while there were plenty of Justin Forsetts and Leon Washingtons and Kareem Huggins in there, I did also draft Tashard Choice and BenJarvus Green-Ellis who eventually paid off. And if you're getting WRs in the first three rounds you don't need as much depth there, so you have the flexibility to take those back fliers as well.
One strategy I will consider going forward is to stay off the hype train and do the homework myself. (Ryan Mathews in particular)
Also - when you get to the end of your draft don't draft backup TE's or rookie WR's (think G Tate or Dem Thomas) and instead target RB's who have a chance to breakout if given the chance. I used this approach and drafted Peyton Hillis on two of my teams. Yes When he was supposedly buried behind Harrison and Hardesty. All it cost was a buck in one league and a 15th rd pick in the other to secure him. One league I lost Ryan Grant in Week 1, the other I lost Pierre Thomas in Week 3. Hillis stepped in both times and both teams are now in the playoffs.
Granted - I'm a Browns fan - so I had gut feeling that Mangini loathed Harrison as his feature back. And after watching Hillis dominate people in preseason it became clear that he was going to play a significant role in Mangini's power running team. See - that was the key - you have to look at the situation and see who has a chance to succeed in it. Hillis' success was not a surprise to me - only the fact that he actually got a chance to show it was.
As for QB's - well in the Auction we did get D Brees as an anchor - but my other team started with K Kolb (yikes) and used WR depth (M Wallace) to trade for M Ryan early on - He and FA Jon Kitna have been more than enough at that position.
1) rounds 1 and 2 pickup elite players that will produce points even if they have a bad year and are NOT injury prone.
2)Pick up at least one WR or RB in rounds 7+ (or a free agent) that will end up being top 10 at his position. Alternative is to be lucky and have no injuries.
In my 12 team PPR league I had 11th pick and got Wayne and White then T.O. in 7th. I have a bye week as #2 seed (waiting for Pierre Thomas to get healthy). #1 seed had 12th pick and he also picked two WRs and did better than me with RBs in later rounds. We both picked our QBs in rounds 9 through 13.
Team that went RB,RB,RB,TE,RB did not make playoffs for some strange reason.
This approach worked well in past few years due to absence of Emmitt Smith and L.T. type RBs. Lst year Chris Johnson was the best RB out there but He was not even close to what Smith and LT used to do at their prime.
Saying that, I was able to sneak into the playoffs (damn you yearly injury to Frank Gore!!) with a 7-6 record.........best record in our league is 8-5, so take that NFL parity!!
It seems that this year has been the official year for the change to occur....I mean, the top RB's are Hillis and Foster?!? B. Lloyd is a top WR? Orton is a top QB?!? Can't wait to get back to normal next year.....oh, for another Priest Holmes on my roster...