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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2010
SF at SD *CLE at CIN *KC at STL *DEN at OAK
BUF at MIA *JAC at IND ARI at CAR NYJ at PIT
*PHI at NYG HOU at TEN DET at TB *GB at NE
*UPDATED *WAS at DAL *NO at BAL ATL at SEA *CHI at MIN

Prediction: BUF 10, MIA 23

This is a rematch of the season opener when the Dolphins won 15-10 in Buffalo. This looks like a low scoring game with both offenses struggling to post points in recent games and the Bills are now without Lee Evans to make them even worse offensively.

Buffalo Bills (3-10)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA L 10-15 10 DET W 14-12
2 @GB L 7-34 11 @CIN W 49-31
3 @NE L 30-38 12 PIT L 16-19
4 NYJ L 14-38 13 @MIN L 14-38
5 JAC L 26-36 14 CLE W 13-6
6 Bye - 15 @MIA --
7 @BAL L 34-37 16 NE --
8 @KC L 10-13 17 @NYJ --
9 CHI L 19-22 - - -
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 180,1
RB Fred Jackson 60 10 -
WR David Nelson - 30 -
WR Steve Johnson - 60 -
WR Donald Jones - 40,1 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Winning three of the last five games has been good for the heart in Buffalo but that is also the end of the winning with the game in Miami, against the Pats and finally in New York left to play. The first year for Chan Gailey has seen some improvements in the offense but the defense has been a problem all year and not one that will be quickly fixed. So much the better for fantasy football.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick has slowed down in recent weeks with only one touchdown in each of the last three games and no more than 160 yards in the last two. The loss of Lee Evans to a high ankle sprain will be no help either since that leaves Steve Johnson somewhat on his own as a receiver that the defense will respect. In the opener, Trent Edwards only passed for 139 yards and one score on these Dolphins who play even tougher at home.

Anything more than one touchdown pass would be a big success here.

RUNNING BACKS: The Bills only rushed for 38 yards on 14 carries in the opener against the FIns and on the road have been far less likely to have success moving the ball on the ground. The Dolphins just held Peyton Hillis to 57 yards last week and only the best of runners have any success on this defense. Figure on Fred Jackson for moderate yardage and no score. He has been used as a receiver on occasion but less so in road games and the Fins have not allowed much to running backs as receivers anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Lee Evans has a high ankle sprain and will probably be placed in injured reserve with only three games left. That marks one of his worst seasons in the NFL and he has already seen Steve Johnson take over as the primary wide receiver. Evans will be replaced by Donald Jones and David Nelson gets a bump up the depth chart after already scoring in each of the last two games.

But Evans only had 34 yards in the opener against the Fins and Johnson gained 40 yards as well. The Dolphins at home have only allowed four wide receivers to score and while there may be trash time and no other options beyond Steve Johnson, he'll get even more focus by the defense with Evans gone. None of these wideouts are a good risk this week.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 15 26 6 30 31 26
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 3 7 6 8 18 21
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BUF -12 -19 0 -22 -13 -5


Miami Dolphins (7-6)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BUF W 15-10 10 TEN W 29-17
2 @MIN W 14-10 11 CHI L 0-16
3 NYJ L 23-31 12 @OAK W 33-17
4 NE L 14-41 13 CLE L 10-13
5 Bye - 14 @NYJ W 10-6
6 @GB W 23-20 15 BUF --
7 PIT L 22-23 16 DET --
8 @CIN W 22-14 17 @NE --
9 @BAL L 10-26 - - -
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne - - 180,1
RB Ricky Williams 70 10 -
RB Ronnie Brown 60,1 10 -
TE Anthony Fasano - 40,1 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 50 -
WR Davone Bess - 60 -
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins offense continues to struggle but the defense is saving the day with no more than 17 points allowed in the last five games and now with the Bills and Lions due to visit, the Fins should end up 8-8 on the season after losing to the Patriots in the season finale. This team looks like it needs a complete overhaul on the offense with a shaky situation at quarterback and two aging running backs.

QUARTERBACK: Chad Henne did himself no favors last week when he only completed five of 18 passes for 55 yards and one score but the Fins won the game and it was bad weather. This week Henne goes against the Bills who allowed him 182 yards and no scores in the opener. Since then the Bills defense has only gotten worse with injuries in the secondary and on the road only one team failed to score multiple passing touchdowns on them. The passing yards are rarely high because opponents run so easily on them, but the scores have been constant.

But Henne only has five touchdown passes over the last six games, so expect marginal yardage and one touchdown and be amazed if anything more happens.

RUNNING BACKS: The Dolphins opened their season with Ricky Williams gaining 62 yards on 18 carries in Buffalo and Ronnie Brown adding 16 runs for 55 yards and a score there. This offense has only produced five rushing touchdowns all season though and never more than 95 yards by any runner in a game. The Bills defense has been among the worst at stopping the run all year long and given up 13 rushing touchdowns and plenty of big games.

With the split as always downgrade what will happen here. There should be at least one rushing score and that should slightly favor Brown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon Marshall returned from his hamstring strain that had him miss two games and he scored once though on only two receptions for 16 yards. That was only the second touchdown of the year for Marshall who has rarely done any better than the 53 yards he had in the season opener against the Bills. Davone Bess turned in 51 yards on six catches in that game but he has not scored since week seven and Brian Hartline has been placed on injured reserve. Last week there were no catches by any wideout besides Bess and Marshall.

There is a chance for a score here but Henne has not been that accurate lately and even against the Bills it is risky to rely on Marshall or Bess. The Fins are going to run as much as they can so consider Bess and Marshall as moderate plays this week. They should both end up with decent yardage at least.

TIGHT ENDS: The Bills have one of the weakest defenses against tight ends and have allowed the position eight touchdowns already this year. Anthony Fasano only had three catches for 46 yards in the opener but has a great chance for a touchdown this week. He rarely has more than 50 yards in games but has scored four times already this season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 27 23 20 24 4 27
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 15 29 9 30 30 14
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) MIA -12 6 -11 6 26 -13

WEEK 15
2010
SF at SD CLE at CIN KC at STL DEN at OAK
BUF at MIA JAC at IND ARI at CAR NYJ at PIT
PHI at NYG HOU at TEN DET at TB GB at NE
  WAS at DAL NO at BAL ATL at SEA CHI at MIN
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