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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2010
SF at SD *CLE at CIN *KC at STL *DEN at OAK
BUF at MIA *JAC at IND ARI at CAR NYJ at PIT
*PHI at NYG HOU at TEN DET at TB *GB at NE
*UPDATED *WAS at DAL *NO at BAL ATL at SEA *CHI at MIN

Prediction: JAC 20, IND 31

Update: Austin Collie has been in full practices this week and it looks good for him to play. Maurice Jones-Drew has been held out of practices the first two days to rest his knee but is expected to play.

Update #2: Collie is good to go with full practices. Both Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard are listed as questionable and were limited in practice but are expected to play.

This is a replay of week four when the Jaguars beat the visiting Colts 31-28 in what would become the first sign that Peyton Manning was mortal. This is a huge game for the 8-5 Jaguars who can probably outright win the AFC South by beating the 7-6 Colts. And it is a must win by the Colts who will almost certainly miss the playoffs if they drop to 7-7 on the season. The stakes could not be higher.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU W 31-24
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE W 24-20
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG L 20-24
4 IND W 31-28 13 @TEN W 17-6
5 @BUF W 36-26 14 OAK W 38-31
6 TEN L 3-30 15 @IND --
7 @KC L 20-42 16 WAS --
8 @DAL W 35-17 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard - - 190,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 110 10 -
RB Rashad Jennings 30,1 10 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 40,1 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 50 -
WR Mike Thomas - 50 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars have a definite chance to run the table and end up 11-5 if they can get past the Colts again. But they have not won in Indianapolis since 2008 and all the recent wins have come over teams with losing records and the Jaguars are only 3-3 on the road. But the offense has been playing better than ever and these games have been close for several years. It may depend on which team has the ball last.

QUARTERBACK: David Garrard passed for 163 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts in week four plus added a rushing score on his five scrambles for 44 yards. He's been far less prolific in recent weeks with Maurice Jones-Drew running wild and the schedule being softer. The Colts playing at home have only allowed six passing scores in six games played and all but the Bengals had less than 202 passing yards there.

The rushing game is working well and Garrard is at his best as a game manager. Four of the last six games for Garrard had no passing scores in them so expect no more than one touchdown - if that.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 105 yards and one score and added a receiving touchdown in the last meeting with the Colts. In recent weeks he has been on fire with over 100 rushing yards in six straight games and scores in all of the home venues. But Jones-Drew has not ran in a score in an away game despite all the yardage.

Rashad Jennings has carved out a nice niche for the Jags with a rushing touchdown in each of the last three games - two of those on the road. No doubt that the Jaguars will pursue the run as much as they can but the Colts do play tougher at home where they have only allowed three rushing touchdowns. Jones-Drew may not have a monster game this week but he should be no worse than good and Jennings has a shot at his fourth straight game with a touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The first meeting with the Colts had Mike Sims-Walker held without a catch and he only had one pass thrown his way. But he has since been more productive with four touchdowns in the seven weeks since that game. Mike Thomas turned in five catches for 68 yards in that first game and while he was on a three game scoring streak, he has since been nearly unused for the last three games while Jones-Drew has done most of the heavy lifting for the offense. The Colts are one of the better defenses against wideouts and the Jaguars have not had much success passing to them against the Colts anyway. Expect just moderate yardage at best. The Colts have only allowed two scores to the position in the last five home games.

TIGHT ENDS: This has been a banner year for Marcedes Lewis and he not only has nine touchdowns on the season, he caught one against the Colts in week four. Lewis is the leading scorer for the Jaguars and the most consistent part of the passing game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 10 9 28 4 14 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 27 5 19 26 13
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC 4 18 -23 15 12 -17


Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU L 24-34 10 CIN W 23-17
2 NYG W 38-14 11 @NE L 28-31
3 @DEN W 27-13 12 SD L 14-36
4 @JAC L 28-31 13 DAL L 35-38
5 KC W 19-9 14 @TEN W 30-28
6 @WAS W 27-24 15 JAC --
7 Bye - 16 @OAK --
8 HOU W 30-17 17 TEN --
9 @PHI L 24-26 - - -
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning - - 320,3
RB Donald Brown 30 20 -
RB Javarris James 60,1 20 -
TE Jacob Tamme - 50,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 110,1 -
WR Austin Collie - 40 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 70,1 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: This is truly a must win for the Colts who are looking at missing the playoffs with a loss here. The remaining schedule in Oakland and hosting Tennessee are no automatic wins but should be easier than taking down the Jaguars this week. The team is still hampered by injuries and last week barely managed to end their three game losing streak. These Colts are very mortal this year and may not even be playoff bound.

QUARTERBACK: The Colts are struggling lately but it is hard to charge Peyton Manning as the cause. Granted he threw 11 interceptions over three games but bounced back in Tennessee last week. He passed for 352 yards and two scores in Jacksonville earlier this season and already has seven games over 300 yards. Back at home with a running game that is still more off than on, expect Manning to lead the offense again into a big passing effort. The Jaguars are going to run to use up the clock but Manning doesn't need much time and this is the Colts first playoff game in reality.

RUNNING BACKS: Joseph Addai remains out with his neck injury that has only allowed him some limited time in practice but he has not played for two months. Donald Brown has been the primary runner in recent weeks but has never been more than mediocre and now has been passed by Javarris Jameswho is special only when compared to Donald Brown. James has six touchdowns on the season and three in the last two games.

I will project for both runners but James is the more likely one to score and the lower risk play for a fantasy team. The Jaguars rushing defense is average only on a good day though most teams pass more against them since it has been easier this year. No reason to expect more than a moderate showing by the Colts running game with James a decent chance for one score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Austin Collie has been out since week 11 but his concussion may be better by now. This is a "all hands on deck" game and he will play if it is reasonably safe. I am looking for him to return at least in a limited capacity and will update as the week progresses. Collie caught a touchdown in Jacksonville this year on his five receptions for 39 yards. Pierre Garcon was not playing yet that week and Reggie Wayne rolled up 196 yards on 15 catches. The wide receivers are the biggest weakness for the Jaguars and Manning knows this defense well.

I like two of the scores to end up here and I will credit both Wayne and Garcon who are must starts this week anyway.

TIGHT ENDS: Jacob Tamme has only scored once in the last five games but he has been a factor each week and Dallas Clark logged one score and 68 yards on the Jaguars last time. Expect at least a decent game here by Tamme against the #27 ranked defense against tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 25 2 6 8 24
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 30 22 28 27 17 22
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) IND 26 -3 26 21 9 -2

WEEK 15
2010
SF at SD CLE at CIN KC at STL DEN at OAK
BUF at MIA JAC at IND ARI at CAR NYJ at PIT
PHI at NYG HOU at TEN DET at TB GB at NE
  WAS at DAL NO at BAL ATL at SEA CHI at MIN
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