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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: HOU 34, DEN 24

Update: Arian Foster is practicing fully and expected to play this week. Andre Johnson has not practiced and will be a game time decision has he has for the last few weeks with his high ankle sprain. The assumption is that he does play but could be used just to give Champ Bailey something to do. Knowshon Moreno has been back to practice and while his ribs are still sore he is expected to play.

The battle of the also-rans. The Texans are on a three game losing streak and have only won once in the last eight games. They are only 2-5 in road games. The Broncos are currently on a five game losing streak and have only won once in the last ten games. Man. Someone is going to be really happy when this game is over.

Houston Texans (5-9)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND W 34-24 10 @JAC L 24-31
2 @WAS W 30-27 11 @NYJ L 27-30
3 DAL L 13-27 12 TEN W 20-0
4 @OAK W 31-24 13 @PHI L 24-34
5 NYG L 10-34 14 BAL L 28-34
6 KC W 35-31 15 @TEN L 17-31
7 Bye - 16 @DEN --
8 @IND L 17-30 17 JAC --
9 SD L 23-29   - -
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON at DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 320,3
RB Arian Foster 100,1 50 -
TE Owen Daniels - 60,1 -
WR Andre' Johnson - 50 -
WR Kevin Walter - 70,1 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 50,1 -
PK Neil Rackers 2 FG 4 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Texans defense continues to give away points like they were strip joint flyers in Vegas. If you can some how ignore the extreme outlier of the win over the Titans, the Texans have surrendered no less than 29 points in each of the last nine games. This is why we play fantasy football. This is one reason why Peyton Manning throws for 4000 yards every year.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Schaub has been on a 2009 kind of tear in the last three weeks with over 320 yards per game and no less than two scores while facing the Eagles, Ravens and Titans. Schaub has been much more likely to pass for multiple touchdowns in away games. The Broncos have allowed nine touchdowns over just the last three home games and that defense is not improving as the team self-destructs.

Expect a good showing here by Schaub and with Foster banged up, Schaub may throw even more.

RUNNING BACKS: Arian Foster had a rare bad game in Tennessee last week and he injured his ankle and had a muscle spasm in his hip. He claimed he could have returned to the game but it was already a blowout loss anyway. Foster is the #1 runner back in the league and has been money in almost every other game. Just not the one where you needed him to advance in your fantasy league playoffs.

I will assume that Foster is healthy until anything to the contrary pops up. The Broncos are ranked #32 against running backs and he owes you big if you still won last week. The Broncos are better at home but not that much. Expect a bounce back game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: No doubt that Champ Bailey hangs out with Andre' Johnson and he's maintained that "shut down" moniker pretty well this year. Johnson is an elite as well though and a must start regardless of matchup. I like the three passing scores this week and two of them should end up with this unit. Jacoby Jones has scored in two of the last three games. Kevin Walter had one touchdown just last week in Tennessee. But history says that Johnson is not going to have a big game this week if you consider the matchup. But everyone else may.

TIGHT ENDS: The Broncos are one of the worst teams at stopping tight ends and have allowed each of the last three visitors to notch a score by the position. That could be one of three tight ends for the Texans but I'll credit it to Owen Daniels who is very overdue to score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 12 3 10 13 13 31
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 25 32 16 28 27 19
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) HOU 13 29 6 15 14 -12


Denver Broncos (3-11)
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @JAC L 17-24 10 KC W 49-29
2 SEA W 31-14 11 @SD L 14-35
3 IND L 13-27 12 STL L 33-36
4 @TEN W 26-20 13 @KC L 6-10
5 @BAL L 17-31 14 @ARI L 13-43
6 NYJ L 20-24 15 @OAK L 23-39
7 OAK L 14-59 16 HOU --
8 @SF L 16-24 17 SD --
9 Bye - - - -
Broncos Report | Statistics | Roster
DENVER vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Tim Tebow 70,1 - 210,2
RB Lance Ball 50 - -
RB Knowshon Moreno 60 20 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 60 -
WR Eddie Royal - 30 -
WR Brandon Lloyd - 90,1 -
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Broncos will be without Kyle Orton again this week and Knowshon Moreno is no lock to play either. That guts the main stars from the offense but this is a time to try out new players anyway and see who the new coach wants to keep in the offseason. This isn't even the final home game.

QUARTERBACK: Tim Tebow had his first NFL start and completed 8 of 16 passes for 138 yards and one score during the pasting by the Raiders. He also added 78 yards and a score on eight runs as well for the Vick-esque effect. The plan is to stick with Tebow for these final two games while Kyle Orton is out with ribs and an arm injury.

This is Tebow's lucky week. He's going to face the #32 pass defenses that will be on the road. The Texans have averaged allowing 310 passing yards per away game and the last six opponents passed for at least two touchdowns. However good Tebow is will be on display because it will not get any better than this. Definitely not next week against the Chargers.

Tebow is still a risk since he has only started one NFL game with mediocre results, but the opportunity is there this week. Tebow was not shy about running last week and with Moreno banged up, he may run even more this time.

RUNNING BACKS: Knowshon Moreno will be questionable to play this week because of his bruised ribs from the Oakland game. Moreno had been on a roll for over a month and scored eight times this year but I'll consider him out until updates warrant his inclusion. This is a bad thing. Lance Ball only gained 20 yards on 15 carries in relief of Moreno last week and Correll Buckhalter gained three yards on six carries.

No Broncos running back should be considered this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Here is the chance for the wideouts to rekindle the Orton weeks. Last week Brandon Lloyd scored once and had 79 yards on four catches though a couple of catches and the touchdown were mostly Lloyd's credit with incredible receiving ability. Eddie Royal had three passes and no catches while Jabbar Gaffney ended with one catch for 32 yards. The stats may only seem average with Tebow this week, but they'll be a lot higher than last week or next week. Lloyd remains a decent start but the other two will be big risks regardless.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Doesn't matter which quarterback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 6 26 2 32 21 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 32 19 31 31 20 10
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) DEN 26 -7 29 -1 -1 -22

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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