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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: IND 23, OAK 24

Update: Joseph Addai has been practicing fully and looks likely to play this week. That only makes the backfield even less reliable or individually productive.

The Colts took down the Jaguars last week but cannot afford any loss since it drops them not only out of the division lead, but from the playoffs all together. The Colts are only 3-4 in road games though and the Raiders are 5-2 at home. This is an interesting matchup that has happened only once in the last nine years.

Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU L 24-34 10 CIN W 23-17
2 NYG W 38-14 11 @NE L 28-31
3 @DEN W 27-13 12 SD L 14-36
4 @JAC L 28-31 13 DAL L 35-38
5 KC W 19-9 14 @TEN W 30-28
6 @WAS W 27-24 15 JAC W 34-24
7 Bye - 16 @OAK --
8 HOU W 30-17 17 TEN --
9 @PHI L 24-26 - - -
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS at OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning - - 300,2
RB Donald Brown 40 30 -
RB Joseph Addai 20 - -
RB Dominic Rhodes 20 - -
TE Jacob Tamme - 60,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 100 -
WR Blair White - 30,1 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 70 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Colts discovered a rushing game for at least one week that helped put down the Jaguars but that's never been like Donald Brown before. The Colts still have a home game left against the Titans that should be an easier win but this week is a different matchup that could go in several different ways. The Colts have to pass better than the Raiders run - it is about that simple.

QUARTERBACK: Peyton Manning already has 4257 yards and 28 passing touchdowns and he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last five games. These last two weeks he has solved his interception problem when he had 11 over three weeks but the last two games were against JAC and TEN - well known divisional rivals. And once again, Austin Collie is seeing stars and likely won't play.

The Raiders always allow a score and usually two of them but never three in a home game. Expect healthy yardage and those two scores just as Manning has done in each of the last four games.

RUNNING BACKS: Donald Brown comes off a career best game with 129 yards on 14 carries and one touchdown. To say that is a surprise is an understatement since it is almost exactly the same yardage from his four previous games combined. And his first touchdown since week two. But that sent Javarris James to the bench perhaps for good and Dominic Rhodes was given some playing time with nine carries for 26 yards.

The Raiders rank poorly against running backs but not when they are at home and have only allowed four rushing scores by a visiting back in the seven games played there. Only Arian Foster managed to top 100 rushing yards against them. Last week was a fluke that included 49 and 43 yard runs. Expect the Brown that has not scored in a road game or had more than 68 rush yards.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The loss of Austin Collie to yet another concussion leaves a hole in the offense that Blair White cannot fill. Two home games with the Chargers and Cowboys were losses when Collie did not play. Pierre Garcon has only scored in three games this year and rarely had more than around 60 yards. Reggie Wayne becomes the near sole focus of the secondary and he is forced to carry the passing game under tougher conditions. Add in that CB Nnamdi Asomugha is getting almost completely healthy again from an ankle sprain and he'll cause problems for Wayne.

Both Wayne and even Garcon are must starts this week because Manning is going to need them to come through. Wayne is the most talented and the most covered. Garcon has to find a way to come up bigger against a decent secondary.

TIGHT ENDS: Jacob Tamme needs to step up again with Collie out. He has scored just once in the last six weeks but that was in a week when Collie was out against the Chargers and at least his yardage increases. Manning is going to be forced to settle on Tamme this week and he should end up with at least decent yardage if not a score as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 5 23 1 9 4 20
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 23 24 6 22 15 16
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) IND 18 1 5 13 11 -4


Oakland Raiders (7-7)
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN L 13-38 10 Bye -
2 STL W 16-14 11 @PIT L 3-35
3 @ARI L 23-24 12 MIA L 17-33
4 HOU L 24-31 13 @SD W 28-13
5 SD W 35-27 14 @JAC L 31-38
6 @SF L 9-17 15 DEN W 39-23
7 @DEN W 59-14 16 IND --
8 SEA W 33-3 17 @KC --
9 KC W 23-20 - - -
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 20 - 210,1
RB Darren McFadden 120,1 40 -
RB Michael Bush 30,1 - -
TE Zach Miller - 50,1 -
WR Louis Murphy - 50 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 40 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 20 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a satisfying sweep of the Broncos and just one more win can prevent a losing season. The Raiders have a shot at going 6-0 in the division with a win in Kansas City in week 17 and yet they still will not make the playoffs barring a miracle. This is the final home game and beating the Colts would really make the season end nicely. And these Colts are not only mortal now, they are wounded and on unfamiliar ground.

QUARTERBACK: Jason Campbell will finish the year as the starter but he'll probably not be there in 2011 since he has never been quite the player they hoped they acquired him in the offseason. Campbell has scored once or twice in almost every game but he has rarely made any positive difference other than handing off well.

The Colts on the road have never failed to allow at least one passing touchdown and have given up a total of 11 passing scores to road opponents. You cannot rely on Campbell for two touchdowns but he should end with one and the second one could happen. The Raiders are mostly going to run as usual though and Campbell stays around his normal 25 passes per game.

RUNNING BACKS: Take away the freakish Miami and Pittsburgh games and Darren McFadden has been a beast with well over 120 total yards in every game and ten touchdowns on the season. Michael Bush remains the short yardage guy with seven touchdowns including two just last week. Even Marcel Reece occasionally shows up with a score and has three receiving touchdowns already.

The Colts at home have been much better against the run but on the road they have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs and five games of around 100 or more rushing yards. Have to like McFadden in the game and even Bush might get a trickle down score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Colts are top five against wideouts and be realistic - there are hardly any here. Jacoby Ford is spawning optimism with every long run but he's far from an every down talent so far. Louis Murphy only has two touchdowns on the season and Darrius Heyward-Bey only has one.

No fantasy starts here this week. Or this year really.

TIGHT ENDS: Zach Miller had a span of five games where he scored four times but then suffered an ankle injury that he tried to play through that wrecked his stats. But he is coming back now with four catches in each of the last two games and facing a defense that already allowed five scores to the position in just six road games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 21 1 29 19 2 10
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 15 26 5 18 26 15
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) OAK -6 25 -24 -1 24 5

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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