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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: MIN 7, PHI 27

Update: Adrian Peterson has returned to limit work in practice and at least he says he will play this week. I am not adding him into the projections yet but it is something to track and that could happen. HC Leslie Frazier has not said that Peterson would play yet. Brett Favre failed his concussion test on Thursday but will be tested later on this week. For now - no changes to the projections and risk for everyone in the offense regardless.

Update #2: Adrian Peterson has practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday and HC Leslie Frazier has expressed optimism that the can play on Sunday night. The problem is if he does like last week and in warm ups decides the knee doesn't feel right and does not play - do you have someone else in that game or on Monday night as a fallback? I am adding Peterson back into the projections but he is still a risk.

Both these teams come off surprising games. The Vikings benched Adrian Peterson and started Brett Favre but still were dominated by the Bears. The Eagles trailed by 21 points midway through the fourth quarter and came back with 28 unbelievable points to win the game in regulation. The Vikings are now finishing their nightmarish season with two road games and the Eagles are winding up with two home stands. The Vikes are only 1-6 on the road and are beaten, injured and just waiting for the end of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (5-9)
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO L 9-14 10 @CHI L 13-27
2 MIA L 10-14 11 GB L 3-31
3 DET W 24-10 12 @WAS W 17-13
4 Bye - 13 BUF W 38-14
5 @NYJ L 20-29 14 NYG L 3-21
6 DAL W 24-21 15 CHI L 14-40
7 @GB L 24-28 16 @PHI --
8 @NE L 18-28 17 @DET --
9 ARI W 27-24 - - -
Vikings Report | Statistics | Roster
MINNESOTA at PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Webb 30 - 180,1
RB Toby Gerhart 70 10 -
RB Adrian Peterson 80 20 -
TE Vishante Shiancoe - 50,1 -
WR Bernard Berrian - 10 -
WR Sidney Rice - 40 -
WR Percy Harvin - 50 -
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Brett Favre road show just never stops giving. He suffered a concussion last week and can stop playing now and not have thrown an interception on his final pass like on both his previous teams. The Vikings benched Adrian Peterson because of his knee and seem like they are attending to games with all the passion of a high school scrimmage.

QUARTERBACK: Brett Favre was concussed against the Bears and while he has not been ruled out, I am ruling him out because about the last thing Favre needs is to face the Eagles blitzes. HC Leslie Frazier confirmed Joe Webb will start if Favre cannot play. Webb passed for 129 yards and two interceptions in a little over two quarters of play last week and he added a rushing score.

Don't rely on either quarterback. Just don't. The risk is far greater than any reward.

RUNNING BACKS: Adrian Peterson is day to day with his knee and thigh injuries and he was not scratched until game time on Monday when his injuries had not responded enough to treatments. Toby Gerhart ran for 77 yards on 16 carries in his place in Chicago but he's hardly much more than a stop gap replacement. With nothing left to win and potentially bigger injuries possible, there is no guarantee what Peterson will do.

I will tentatively pencil in Gerhart as the starter since Peterson is injured and may not play. The Eagles are only average against the run and Peterson would have a shot at a decent game if healthy but that is unreliable right when you need him the most.

WIDE RECEIVERS: With Joe Webb playing, Percy Harvin only had three catches for 48 yards and Sidney Rice ended with just 23 yards on two receptions. With Webb taking off on six runs and the defenses coming after him, there is not enough time for either receiver to get free enough to merit a pass. If Webb plays - these receivers are far too risky to merit any fantasy starts. Bernard Berrian did not even have a catch.

TIGHT ENDS: About the only - and I mean only - part of this offense with any positive outlook here would be Vishante Shiancoe who had six catches for 41 yards last week and now faces the worst ranked team against tight ends. Even that is no lock for a big game but Shiancoe has the lowest risk of any offensive player. The Eagles have already allowed ten touchdowns to the opposing tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 29 9 25 23 32 29
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 29 17 17 32 12 7
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) MIN 0 8 -8 9 -20 -22


Philadelphia Eagles (10-4))
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 GB L 20-27 10 @WAS W 59-28
2 @DET W 35-32 11 NYG W 27-17
3 @JAC W 28-3 12 @CHI L 26-31
4 WAS L 12-17 13 HOU W 34-24
5 @SF W 27-24 14 @DAL W 30-27
6 ATL W 31-17 15 @NYG W 38-31
7 @TEN L 19-37 16 MIN --
8 Bye - 17 DAL --
9 IND W 26-24 - - -
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 60,1 - 250,2
RB LeSean McCoy 50 40 -
TE Brent Celek - 40,1 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 80,1 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 70 -
PK David Akers 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Eagles greet the Vikings at the best possible time this year and a win this week takes the NFC East division and keeps them in the hunt for a first round bye. That could mean that week 17 would not be a day of rest but winning a bye makes it worthwhile plus the Eagles always like beating the visiting Cowboys anyway.

QUARTERBACK: Michael Vick has certainly made his case for Offensive MVP this year and he gets "most improved" by a mile. Vick has turned into a true dual threat that is passing very well - multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games - and running better than... than.... than the old Vick. He has scored eight rushing touchdowns and 20 passing touchdowns. He throws for over 250 yards in pretty much every game.

The Vikings have a decent defense but Vick now transcends matchups.

RUNNING BACKS: LeSean McCoy had a down game in New York but he has been money in the ten previous games with at least 100 total yards or a touchdown if not both. He has also tended to be a receiver more in home games from a reduced need to stay in and block.

The Vikings are good against the run but have allowed six touchdowns in their away games this year. This game smacks of "win but do not over exert yourself" so figure on a good but not great game from McCoy.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Jason Avant suffered a slight concussion during the last play of the Giants game and may not play this week. I am holding him out of the projections until he passes the tests and is cleared to play.

Jeremy Maclin recorded his third two-TD game of the year when he had seven catches for 59 yards against the Giants and he has a total of ten scores on the year versus six for DeSean Jackson . The Vikings weakest link in the defense is against wide receivers and the home crowd wants to see some fireworks. Both Jackson and Maclin are good starts this week and either could catch a score. Both could if the Eagles remain dedicated to winning big.

TIGHT ENDS:Brent Celek was held without a catch in the first half of the Giants game but reigned in a 65 yard catch and run for a score. That was his third game in four weeks with more than 50 yards but he was blanked in the Dallas game so he is not without risk in this offense. I like Vick to work with Celek again this week against a defense that allowed three touchdowns to tight ends over the last two road games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 1 11 4 25 1 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 12 9 22 10 8 32
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) PHI 11 -2 18 -15 7 27

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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