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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: NYG 20, GB 24

This is one of the most critical games of the weekend with the Giants trying to bounce back from their historic collapse against the Eagles last week that left them one game back of the Eagles but still a strong play for a wild card. The Giants are 4-2 in road games. The Packers nearly upset the Pats using Matt Flynn and return home where they hope to get Aaron Rodgers back. The Packers are 5-1 in home games. If the Giants win this, the Packers will probably be knocked out of the playoffs. If the Packers win, it will make week 17 very important for both teams.

New York Giants (9-5)
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR W 31-18 10 DAL L 20-33
2 @IND L 14-38 11 @PHI L 17-27
3 TEN L 10-29 12 JAC W 24-20
4 CHI W 17-3 13 WAS W 31-7
5 @HOU W 34-10 14 @MIN W 21-3
6 DET W 28-20 15 PHI L 31-38
7 @DAL W 41-35 16 @GB --
8 Bye - 17 @WAS --
9 @SEA W 41-7 - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 240,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 50 - -
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 10 -
TE Kevin Boss - 50,1 -
WR Derek Hagen - 20 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 80,1 -
WR Mario Manningham - 50 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The meltdown last week when the defense gave up 28 points in the final eight minutes is going to be very hard to shake and the G-Men have two road games to finish out the season. Any chance for the division is now gone since the Eagles swept them and fighting for a wildcard is going to be a challenge since they face the one team that could deny them the opportunity. This is no time for a traditional December slide.

QUARTERBACK: Eli Manning called a players only meeting following the collapse against Philadelphia and is trying to take a bigger leadership role. He was having one of his best games of the year when he threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns on the Eagles and that was a game very unlike his other recent matchups that had not see him pass for more than two scores and 226 yards for the last four weeks.

The Packers have only allowed seven passing scores at home this year and never more than two in a game. They have held all but one opponent to 231 yards or less and this will be another cold game though without any forecasted precipitation. I'll give Manning the high end but this is against the #4 defense against quarterbacks. The Packers average two interceptions per game at home as well.

RUNNING BACKS: Ahmad Bradshaw has not fared nearly as well in road games this year and this week is easily the toughest matchup he will have faced in 2010. Bradshaw has only scored in two away games and had significantly less yardage when facing a decent defense.

Brandon Jacobs has only scored three road games and he too has obviously not faced very tough defenses so far. The split of workload depresses the individual stats as will facing one of the best defenses in the league that has only allowed five rushing touchdowns in fourteen games played.

Expect moderate numbers here with a touchdown looking unlikely.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Steve Smith remains out but Mario Manningham comes off his best game of the year when he caught eight passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns on the Eagles. Manningham had previously only showed up when the Giants were facing one of the weakest defenses. Hakeem Nicks had his tenth touchdown of the season but his 63 yards on six catches was his lowest game in seven weeks. Nicks has been the main weapon in road games and six of his scores came away from home.

The Packers have a great secondary that has only allowed five passing scores to visiting wideouts this year. I like one score to end up with this group and while Manningham has stepped up in recent home games, he has never been much in away venues. Look for a decent game from Nicks but the others are not to be relied on this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Kevin Boss has recharged since the second half of the season started and he has five touchdowns since week nine along with decent to very good yardage every game. Look for another score this week since tight end is the only weakness of this defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 11 5 7 11 22 8
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 4 3 3 29 9 11
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NYG -7 -2 -4 18 -13 3


Green Bay Packers (8-6)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @PHI W 27-20 10 Bye -
2 BUF W 34-7 11 @MIN W 31-3
3 @CHI L 17-20 12 @ATL L 17-20
4 DET W 28-26 13 SF W 34-16
5 @WAS L 13-16 14 @DET L 3-7
6 MIA L 20-23 15 @NE L 27-31
7 MIN W 28-24 16 NYG --
8 @NYJ W 9-0 17 CHI --
9 DAL W 45-7 - - -
Packers Report | Statistics | Roster
GREEN BAY vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10,1 - 270,2
RB Brandon Jackson 40 20 -
WR Greg Jennings - 100,1 -
WR Jordy Nelson - 30 -
WR Donald Driver - 40 -
WR James Jones - 70,1 -
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Spry effort from Matt Flynn last week and the Packers looked sharp in New England despite the close loss. Now comes two home games against quality teams including the Giants who must be beaten to give the Packers a chance at a wild card bid. Last week was a delightful surprise but everyone wants Rodgers in this game.

QUARTERBACK: HC Mike McCarthy said that he won't have an update on Aaron Rodgers' status until Wednesday and even then it will be only quasi-reliable. Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion in the Detroit game and was not able to pass all the tests last week. No doubt he will be there if anyway possible and I will count him in and update later if it appears that Flynn gets another start.

Rodgers threw 14 touchdowns in his six home games and had high yardage in almost every one. The Giants have been about average against the pass and allowed only four passers to have more than one touchdown but in all but one case it was three scores per quarterback.

The rushing game is likely to be held in check so Rodgers will need to win this game.

RUNNING BACKS: James Starks was a healthy scratch last week so there goes the next great sleeper back. The Packers went with two running backs and three fullbacks instead and yet Brandon Jackson had his second best game of the year when he rushed for 99 yards on 22 carries. That game smacked of a trap game though as the Patriots seemed only mildly interested and still came back to win.

It had been a month since Jackson had managed to gain more than 30 rushing yards and his role as a receiver has been downplayed in most recent games as well. No decent start here against the #4 defense against running backs.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Both James Jones (5-95) and Greg Jennings (4-30) scored in New England so at least falling back to Flynn again may not be that bad. Jennings scored at least once in the last five home games and has been a big factor in yardage as well. The Giants secondary is above average but this is a big game at home and the Giants are reeling a bit from their week 14 collapse.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 2 31 5 22 17 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 17 4 8 5 13 25
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) GB 15 -27 3 -17 -4 18

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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