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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: NYJ 13, CHI 23

Update: Earl Bennett has not practiced on Thursday or Wednesday because of the ankle sprain from Monday night. I am removing him from the projections though he has not been ruled out yet. Mark Sanchez has torn cartilage in his throwing shoulder but has not been ruled out. He has been limited in practice but cannot make it worse by playing. He is not a great start this week anyway but I am going to leave him in the projections barring more information to the contrary. Santonio Homes has turf toe and was held out on Wednesday and then was limited on Thursday. I am downgrading him even though he is still expected to play.

Update #2: Earl Bennett returned to practice on Friday and is listed as probable to play.

This should be one of the better games of the weekend. The Jets finally found a way to score a touchdown and merely beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the process. The Jets are a solid 6-1 in road games this year and the Bears are only 5-3 at home. This should be a cold game with a chance of snow showers.

New York Jets (10-4)
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BAL L 9-10 10 @CLE W 26-20
2 NE W 28-14 11 HOU W 30-27
3 @MIA W 31-23 12 CIN W 26-10
4 @BUF W 38-14 13 @NE L 3-45
5 MIN W 29-20 14 MIA L 6-10
6 @DEN W 24-20 15 @PIT W 22-17
7 Bye - 16 @CHI --
8 GB L 0-9 17 BUF --
9 @DET W 23-20 - - -
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 170,1
RB Shonn Greene 50 - -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 50 10 -
TE Dustin Keller - 20 -
WR Jerricho Cotchery - 30 -
WR Braylon Edwards - 60,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 40 -
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jets have lost their bid to win the AFC East by now but at 10-4 should be a lock for a wildcard thanks to hosting the Bills in week 17. But the offensive problems still exist with the only touchdown last week coming on a quarterback run and otherwise the defense outscored the offense with a punt return score and a safety. The win was nice but it did not resolve the problem scoring.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez underwent a "precautionary" MRI on his right shoulder Monday, but the Jets expect him to be fine. HC Rex Ryan said it was just a sore shoulder. As noted, Sanchez ran in a score last week to produce the first offensive touchdown since Thanksgiving but has gone three games without a touchdown pass and had marginal yardage for the last month.

The Bears have allowed the last six visitors to throw at least one touchdown if not two. Expect the lower yardage but Sanchez should come up with one passing touchdown.

RUNNING BACKS: Not only is there no changes here, but the backfield is producing nearly the exact same thing every week - which does not include any touchdowns. LaDainian Tomlinson has been right around 50 rushing yards in every game for the last two months and his role as a receiver has even been in decline so that the last four games never had more than 14 receiving yards.

Shonn Greene has done slightly better in rushing yards in most weeks but even combined this is a mediocre rushing attack and separated it has almost no fantasy value.

The Bears have only allowed one rushing score in the last four home games so expect the same mediocrity we have become accustomed to seeing.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Obviously this unit has been devoid of scoring for three weeks but the passing that does happen ends up here where Santonio Holmes has been on the decline and yet both Braylon Edwards (8-100) and Jerricho Cotchery (5-69) come off one of their better games of the year. But neither have scored in over a month and their yardage in previous weeks was mediocre at best.

The one pass score should end up here and while it could end up anywhere, I'll lean towards Edwards since he has shown up more lately.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller has no real fantasy value with rarely more than 40 yards in any game and he has not scored since back in week two. He's only reliable for a handful of yards each week. The Bears have been solid against the position anyway and allowed only two scores to a tight end all year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 22 18 17 18 6 14
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 6 8 9 8 4 28
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NYJ -16 -10 -8 -10 -2 14


Chicago Bears (10-4)
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET W 19-14 10 MIN W 27-13
2 @DAL W 27-20 11 @MIA W 16-0
3 GB W 20-17 12 PHI W 31-26
4 @NYG L 3-17 13 @DET W 24-20
5 @CAR W 23-6 14 NE L 7-36
6 SEA L 20-23 15 @MIN W 40-14
7 WAS L 14-17 16 NYJ --
8 Bye - 17 @GB --
9 @BUF W 22-19   - -
Bears Report | Statistics | Roster
CHICAGO vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler - - 240,2
RB Matt Forte 50 30 -
TE Greg Olsen - 30,1 -
WR Devin Hester - 40 -
WR D. Aromashodu - 40 -
WR Earl Bennett - 60 -
WR Johnny Knox - 60,1 -
PK Robbie Gould 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bears takedown of the Vikings on Monday righted the ship after the bad loss to the Patriots. This is the final home game for the regular season and it should be another cold affair. This time the Bears face the part of the AFC East that doesn't have the prolific offense.

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler was able to throw for three touchdowns in the snowy conditions in Minnesota last Monday and he ended with 194 yards making it the seventh game in a row with fewer than 250 passing yards. Cutler has been inconsistent at best this year with six games of multiple scores and yet four games without any touchdowns.

The Jets have given up at least one score in every road game this year but only once more than two and the yardage tends to remain at 250 or less. Cutler gets a break here too because Darrelle Revis is still not healthy and the Bears have no main featured wideout anyway.

RUNNING BACKS: Matt Forte has been below average in rushing this year and has topped 100 rushing yards only twice. His role as a receiver has been de-emphasized as well and Chester Taylor cuts into his action enough to make Forte just a second tier fantasy back even on a good day. Now the Jets show up with the #2 ranked defense against running backs and Forte's chance for a score here is even less than usual.

Expect just marginal rushing yards - that's all Forte can reliably provide.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Devin Hester set the all-time NFL record for return touchdowns with his punt return in the Vikings game but he also scored on his two catches for 23 yards in that game. Hester tends to have minimal roles in the passing game since he plays special teams as well but can show up there as well and has three scores as a wideout this year. The nice part of the Mike Martz offense is that it is convoluted and doesn't rely on any one or even two receivers. That really negates the impact of Darrelle Revis who is banged up and not playing as well anyway.

But that same complexity makes relying on any Bears wideout a risk proposition as well. I lean towards Johnny Knox for the score but it could go anywhere. Rashied Davis had a touchdown last week and he only has two catches on the year. You can only expect moderate yardage and no score from the players.

TIGHT ENDS: The Jets on the road have already allowed five passing scores to tight ends and Greg Olsen is due with no scores for three weeks now. Olsen's role has been de-emphasized in recent weeks but should come into play more this game as it did in the cold weather in Minnesota when he had four catches for 28 yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 20 21 23 21 16 4
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 2 19 20 5 4
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) CHI -1 -19 -4 -1 -11 0

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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