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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC *IND at OAK
*DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
*NE at BUF *NYJ at CHI *MIN at PHI *SD at CIN
*UPDATED *SF at STL *WAS at JAC *HOU at DEN NO at ATL

Prediction: WAS 24, JAC 27

Update: Both Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) and Mike Sims-Walker (ankle) have not practiced on Wednesday or Thursday and their status for the game will be determined on Friday according to HC Jack Del Rio. Expect an update tomorrow.

Update #2: Maurice Jones-Drew is doubtful to play and is being removed from the projections. Mike Sims-Walker is still expected to play but he will not start or play the entire game. I am lowering his projections.

The Redskins are on a four game losing streak and are only 3-4 in road games. The Jaguars are are fighting for their dwindling playoff hopes and are 5-2 in home games. The Redskins are already trying new things as the season comes to a close while the Jags have to treat this like a playoff game. The fantasy plus here is that the Jaguars defense allows plenty of points.

Washington Redskins (5-9)
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL W 13-7 10 PHI L 28-59
2 HOU L 27-30 11 @TEN W 19-16
3 @STL L 16-30 12 MIN L 13-17
4 @PHI W 17-12 13 @NYG L 7-31
5 GB W 16-13 14 TB L 16-17
6 IND L 24-27 15 @DAL L 30-33
7 @CHI W 17-14 16 @JAC --
8 @DET L 25-37 17 NYG --
9 Bye - - - -
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 270,2
RB Ryan Torain 70,1 20 -
TE Chris Cooley - 60 -
WR Santana Moss - 80,1 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 50,1 -
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Skins window on winning one more game may already be closed with this road trip and then hosting the Giants in week 17. The decision last week to go with Rex Grossman did not produce a win though he had a good game against the soft Cowboys secondary. That's the scary part of the Redskins for the next two weeks - Mike Shanahan may start or bench any player since all he is doing now is taking a look at who he wants to keep for next season. In some ways, that is worse than resting players for the playoffs.

QUARTERBACK: There are rumors that the Skins are tanking their final games in the hopes of landing a top 5 pick and getting a quarterback in the NFL draft. It is evident enough that Donovan McNabb was not their cup of tea and that contract he signed means little. Rex Grossman accomplished what McNabb never could - throw for more than two touchdowns. Grossman actually passed for 322 yards and four scores in Dallas with two interceptions and one lost fumble.

The Jaguars have been better against the pass lately and at home have been much better than when on the road. Only one quarterback has thrown for more than two scores there though the yardage has remained high. Assuming Shanahan doesn't pull any more fast ones, Grossman could have yet another nice game against another of the weakest secondaries in the league.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Torain started again but in Dallas he was only called on for 11 runs that gained 53 yards. The Skins went to a pass heavy attack but at least that included Torain who had five receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown. Keiland Williams was almost entirely phased out. The assumption this week has to be for another Torain-heavy game but one with more rushing since the Jaguars are much weaker against running backs than the Cowboys were. They have already allowed nine touchdowns to visiting running backs and all but one team had a running back score there.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Grossman had nice success passing to the two starting wideouts. Santana Moss caught eight passes for 72 yards and scored twice while Anthony Armstrong ended with 100 yards on five receptions but no other wideout had a catch. Grossman was more accurate than McNabb has been and that should translate into a decent showing again this week for the two starters. The Jaguars have allowed at least one score to a wideout for almost every visiting team and as many as three. Since the Jaguars are likely to get a lead and force the Skins to throw, the yardage could be very nice here again this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Chris Cooley did not have a catch in the first half of the Dallas loss, but he ended with five receptions for 62 yards and one touchdown from Grossman. The Jags are just as soft against tight ends as they are wideouts though more for yardage than scores. They have only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 15 12 27 8 26 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 28 22 29 26 17 23
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) WAS 13 10 2 18 -9 5


Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU W 31-24
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE W 24-20
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG L 20-24
4 IND W 31-28 13 @TEN W 17-6
5 @BUF W 36-26 14 OAK W 38-31
6 TEN L 3-30 15 @IND L 24-34
7 @KC L 20-42 16 WAS --
8 @DAL W 35-17 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard - - 190,2
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,1 10 -
RB Rashad Jennings 70,1 10 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 50,1 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 30 -
WR Mike Thomas - 70,1 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Colts prevented the Jaguars from their first ever sweep of their divisional rival and now could mean sitting at home in January no matter what happens in the last two games. Playing in Houston won't be easy in the final week but this game should be the victory that ensures a winning season.

QUARTERBACK: David Garrard had to undergo X-rays on his fingers after the loss at Indy but they were only jammed and he'll be fine to play this week. Garrard has thrown for multiple scores in each of the last three home games though the yardage rarely surpasses 250 if even 200 yards.

The Redskins secondary is no better than Jacksonville's in allowing multiple scores and higher yardage. The Jaguars will rush more in a home game and that will decrease what Garrard will need to do but he's a good bet for one or two touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew comes off one of his worst games of the year and he didn't even finish in Indianapolis but back at home he has always been a big factor. He scored six times over the last five home games and had over 100 rushing yards in four of those matchups. The Redskins have been much softer against the run on the road and recently was killed by the Giants who scored four rushing touchdowns on them.

Rashad Jennings remains a growing factor. He has only three carries last week but siphoned off seven catches for 64 yards at Indy when he had rarely been used as a receiver in previous games.

Jones-Drew had a sore knee in practice last week but claims it was not a factor against the Colts. Barring problems practicing this week, figure on a nice game here by Jones-Drew with a shot at one or two scores if Jennings doesn't end up stealing them.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Sims-Walker still has not done much in yardage this year but he has scored three times in the last two weeks and has seven scores on the season. The problem is that six of those scores came in road games and he has a tendency to do little in home games when Jones-Drew is rushing well. Mike Thomas has been very up and down all year but has been slightly more likely to score at home if he scores at all. I like one passing touchdown against the soft secondary of the Skins and will credit Thomas but with low confidence.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis is winding down a great season with nine touchdowns that included three matchups with two scores in them. Lewis rarely has more than around 40 yards in most games but he has been good enough to score in most of the home stands. The Skins were just victimized by Jason Witten last week, figure on Lewis having a decent showing against them as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 10 8 28 4 19 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 27 25 24 23 24 27
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC 17 17 -4 19 5 -3

WEEK 16
2010
CAR at PIT BAL at CLE TEN at KC IND at OAK
DAL at ARI DET at MIA SEA at TB NYG at GB
NE at BUF NYJ at CHI MIN at PHI SD at CIN
  SF at STL WAS at JAC HOU at DEN NO at ATL
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