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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2010
*MIA at NE OAK at KC *CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
*TB at NO TEN at IND *MIN at DET *SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS *STL at SEA
*Updated *DAL at PHI *CIN at BAL *PIT at CLE ARI at SF

Prediction: BUF 10, NYJ 23

Update: This final game for the Bills has just about run out of all wide receivers. Both David Nelson and Donald Jones will not play.

This is the replay of the week four game when the Jets won 38-14 in Buffalo. The problem in this game is that the Jets have locked down a wildcard with their 10-5 record and there is nothing to win or lose here. They could use this final game to rest some players and the Bills have problems with most of their receivers being injured as well. None of the Jets are safe to start this week. But how the Jets defense plays is harder to gauge as well in a game that does not matter. This game should have minimal points in it.

Buffalo Bills (4-11)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA L 10-15 10 DET W 14-12
2 @GB L 7-34 11 @CIN W 49-31
3 @NE L 30-38 12 PIT L 16-19
4 NYJ L 14-38 13 @MIN L 14-38
5 JAC L 26-36 14 CLE W 13-6
6 Bye - 15 @MIA W 17-14
7 @BAL L 34-37 16 NE L 3-34
8 @KC L 10-13 17 @NYJ --
9 CHI L 19-22 - - -
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 140,1
RB Fred Jackson 40 20 -
WR Steve Johnson - 40,1 -
WR Donald Jones - 30 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Chan Gailey's first season made some progress for the offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over from Trent Edwards and Steve Johnson emerging as a true weapon. Fred Jackson continues to be the guy that plays over his head and the draft pick of C.J. Spiller so far has to be considered a spectacular whiff.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick closes out a season where he threw a pass in every game until last week. He's been a clear upgrade over the legions of other quarterbacks from recent seasons and brought life to the passing game where no one assumed there would be any this year. Fitzpatrick passed for only 128 yards and yet had two touchdowns in the previous meeting with the Jets.

In this final game, do not expect more than one and even that may not happen.

RUNNING BACKS: Fred Jackson has been a solid player that was never heralded and yet seems to play better than any "pedigree" runners they pick up. Jackson rushed for 21 yards on three carries in the first meeting but the Jets only had nine carries by running backs that week anyway.

C.J. Spiller has been a major bust with no rushing touchdowns and never more than 35 rushing yards in any game. He's added nothing really and only taken up carries and catches that could have been more productive with Jackson. He's not even worthy of a projection.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The is year witnessed Steve Johnson come into his own with a breakout year of ten touchdowns and he even supplanted Lee Evans as the primary wideout. Once Lee Evans was lost, Donald Jones stepped in but he's been banged up lately and not effective since week 11. David Nelson scored in three straight games though week 15 but now has a rib injury and has been ruled out.

I'll credit the single passing score to Johnson as the most likely but Revis may shut him down and with that bring down the entire passing game. He is not a safe start this week.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 18 29 8 30 31 27
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 2 23 16 4 4
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) BUF 1 -27 15 -14 -27 -23


New York Jets (10-5)
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BAL L 9-10 10 @CLE W 26-20
2 NE W 28-14 11 HOU W 30-27
3 @MIA W 31-23 12 CIN W 26-10
4 @BUF W 38-14 13 @NE L 3-45
5 MIN W 29-20 14 MIA L 6-10
6 @DEN W 24-20 15 @PIT W 22-17
7 Bye - 16 @CHI L 34-38
8 GB L 0-9 17 BUF --
9 @DET W 23-20 - - -
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Brunell - - 170,1
RB Shonn Greene 90,1 10 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 40 10 -
TE Dustin Keller - 30,1 -
WR Jerricho Cotchery - 40 -
WR Braylon Edwards - 70 -
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jets started the year red hot but since their bye in week seven, they have been only 5-4. Mark Sanchez has been better though had five games with no scores. The rushing game started out very well but by midseason it just went flat and uninspired. The addition of Santonio Holmes has helped but mostly at the expense of Jerricho Cotchery. The Jets have only won once in the last four games so a win here would help to erase the downward trend of the past month.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez has cartilage damage in his right (throwing) shoulder so he may not play much at all this week. I am going to assume that Mark Brunell gets the start or at least takes most of the snaps in this game. The Jets just have to get through this game so there should be no big aerial war happening. Brunell is not a safe fantasy start and won't do much.

RUNNING BACKS: LaDainian Tomlinson had a season best 133 yards on 19 carries in the first meeting with the Bills and scored twice. He has not gained more than 55 rushing yards in the last ten games and doesn't catch much either. He's playing more like an old man who is getting tired.

Shonn Greene also rushed for a season best 117 yards on 222 carries in the last Bills game. Greene should take the bigger load this week and I like for him to score once and have decent yardage. No reason to make Tomlinson work too much this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santonio Holmes is dealing with nagging hip and turf toe injuries and may be rested this week. Even if he starts he may not play long and with that sort of risk, I will hold him out of the projections. The only marginally interesting player here would be Braylon Edwards who had 86 yards and a score in the last meeting but this is all going to be a risk this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller had two touchdowns in the last meeting with the Bills. He has a chance for another good game depending on how hard the Jets care to play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 23 13 13 19 6 11
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 13 30 8 32 28 18
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) NYJ -10 17 -5 13 22 7

WEEK 17
2010
MIA at NE OAK at KC CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
TB at NO TEN at IND MIN at DET SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS STL at SEA
  DAL at PHI CIN at BAL PIT at CLE ARI at SF
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