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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2010
*MIA at NE OAK at KC *CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
*TB at NO TEN at IND *MIN at DET *SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS *STL at SEA
*Updated *DAL at PHI *CIN at BAL *PIT at CLE ARI at SF

Prediction: JAC 17, HOU 27

Update: Andre Johnson has not practiced this week and is considered doubtful to play so I am removing him from the projections. He is expected to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle next week.

The Jaguars just have to win this road game (they are 3-4 on the road) and hope that the Colts forget to show up when they host the Titans and are only ten point favorites to win that game. But this game and the Colts game are both afternoon games. This is a replay of week ten with the Jaguars beat the visiting Texans 31-24. But the Jags will not have Maurice Jones-Drew or David Garrard and that is what we call a wrap.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DEN W 24-17 10 HOU W 31-24
2 @SD L 13-38 11 CLE W 24-20
3 PHI L 3-28 12 @NYG L 20-24
4 IND W 31-28 13 @TEN W 17-6
5 @BUF W 36-26 14 OAK W 38-31
6 TEN L 3-30 15 @IND L 24-34
7 @KC L 20-42 16 WAS L 17-20
8 @DAL W 35-17 17 @HOU --
9 Bye - - - -
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards - - 240,2
RB Rashad Jennings 50 40 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 60,1 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 70,1 -
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars picked a bad time to start a losing streak since these last two losses have almost certainly knocked them from the post season and with injuries all over the offense, it's probably just as well since it would be a one and out anyway. The offense made some strides this year with Mike Sims-Walker being joined by the emerging Mike Thomas for a nice set of starters on the outside. Marcedes Lewis cemented his role as a valuable red zone target and Maurice Jones-Drew overcame a slow start to have a good year until his injury. It is a better team than it started as but that still doesn't get you a winning season.

QUARTERBACK: David Garrard will have surgery on his right middle finger and miss this game. Trent Edwards will get the start and hope it goes better than it did in week six when Garrard was knocked out of the Tennessee game and Edwards passed for 140 yards and two interceptions. This is a step down and there is no other way to spin it. At least the Texans have a weak secondary. Garrard passed for 342 yards and two scores in the week ten meeting. If Edwards can get half that much it will be a success.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew needs surgery on his right knee, but is holding off in hopes that the Jaguars qualify for the playoffs. He is not expected to play in this game though and Rashad Jennings should take the start as he did last week when he gained 32 yards on 15 carries when the Redskins showed up. Jones-Drew gained 100 yards and two scores in the home meeting with the Texans this year and added 23 yards on two catches.

Jennings role is going to be dependent on game situation but with Trent Edwards as the starter, chances are eight man in a box even for Jennings.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Mike Sims-Walker has been hobbled for several weeks because of an ankle injury but he still plays despite never having more than 50 yards in a game since week eight. He caught just three passes for 26 yards in the first meeting with the Texans. Mike Thomas had 149 yards on eight catches and scored once in that game for his season best - by far.

With Edwards as the quarterback it is less certain what to expect other than "less". The Texans have a horrible secondary though and even "less" is still significant when you are talking about the Texans.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis is ending a banner year with nine touchdown catches though he had none on his five receptions for 53 yards against the Texans last time. Still Lewis has to be a heavy favorite to score with a new quarterback looking for a big target close to the line.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 10 10 28 5 18 30
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 32 22 31 29 19 7
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) JAC 22 12 3 24 1 -23


Houston Texans (5-10)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND W 34-24 10 @JAC L 24-31
2 @WAS W 30-27 11 @NYJ L 27-30
3 DAL L 13-27 12 TEN W 20-0
4 @OAK W 31-24 13 @PHI L 24-34
5 NYG L 10-34 14 BAL L 28-34
6 KC W 35-31 15 @TEN L 17-31
7 Bye - 16 @DEN L 23-24
8 @IND L 17-30 17 JAC --
9 SD L 23-29   - -
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 270,2
RB Arian Foster 100,1 30 -
TE Owen Daniels - 60 -
WR Andre' Johnson - 50 -
WR Kevin Walter - 80,1 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 90,1 -
PK Neil Rackers 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Texans wind down a bad season but the Texans are already saying that HC Gary Kubiak remains though there is no chance that the defensive coaches will stick around after this team was the weakest across the board when the opponent was on offense. Arian Foster has been a great new "find" and otherwise the rest of the offense tried to keep up with previous performances. But the defense - a beautiful thing in fantasy football. We shall mourn when it improves.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Schaub started the season with a lot of average games as the rushing attack took the forefront. But Schaub is back to bombing with a current string of four 300+ yard games. Back in week two, he threw for 314 yards and two scores in Jacksonville with no turnovers or sacks. He has scored in every game since and has a chance here to end the year with a bang against a secondary that is almost as bad as his own.

RUNNING BACKS: It has been a big year for Arian Foster with 16 total touchdowns and a league leading 1436 rushing yards. But he only managed to gain 56 yards on 15 carries with one score in Jacksonville. Foster has always been a bigger force in home games so expect very solid yardage here and no less than one touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Andre' Johnson missed last week because of his ankle and it has been an issue for a long time though he played with pain in many games. It will be up to Johnson whether or not he will play and how much which means game time decision at best - and he could pull himself if his ankle worsens in the game.

Last week without him, Jacoby Jones has a season best 115 yards on five catches in Denver. The offense can still move without Johnson but it really does best when he is there. Johnson accounted for nine catches for 146 yards and one score in the last game with the Jaguars. Jones only had one catch for five yards and Kevin Walter ended with 90 yards and a score on six receptions.

I will assume a limited Johnson plays some but that is all very speculative and risky.

TIGHT ENDS: Owen Daniels did not play in that first game against the Jaguars but he has been coming on strong in recent weeks and even had a score in Denver on his eight catches for 73 yards. The less time Johnson plays, the more that Daniels figures in.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 12 3 11 12 10 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 26 21 28 28 18 23
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) HOU 14 18 17 16 8 -8

WEEK 17
2010
MIA at NE OAK at KC CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
TB at NO TEN at IND MIN at DET SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS STL at SEA
  DAL at PHI CIN at BAL PIT at CLE ARI at SF
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