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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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WEEK 17
2010
*MIA at NE OAK at KC *CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
*TB at NO TEN at IND *MIN at DET *SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS *STL at SEA
*Updated *DAL at PHI *CIN at BAL *PIT at CLE ARI at SF

Prediction: OAK 13, KC 27

Update: Darren McFadden is a game time decision this week because of his toe and missed all practices this week. I am lowering his projections and he may not play at all.

The Chiefs have clinched the division and the only change that may happen is if they win and the Colts lose which then makes the Chiefs the 3rd seed instead of the fourth. This game is a replay of week nine when the Raiders won 23-20 in Oakland. The Chiefs are 7-0 at home and the Raiders are 2-5 in road games.

Oakland Raiders (7-8)
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN L 13-38 10 Bye -
2 STL W 16-14 11 @PIT L 3-35
3 @ARI L 23-24 12 MIA L 17-33
4 HOU L 24-31 13 @SD W 28-13
5 SD W 35-27 14 @JAC L 31-38
6 @SF L 9-17 15 DEN W 39-23
7 @DEN W 59-14 16 IND L 26-31
8 SEA W 33-3 17 @KC --
9 KC W 23-20 - - -
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell - - 190,1
RB Darren McFadden 30 - -
RB Michael Bush 40 10 -
TE Zach Miller - 60,1 -
WR Louis Murphy - 20 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 40 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 20 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Raiders wind down a weird season where they are 5-0 against their own division and yet only 2-8 against the rest of the world. A win here not only prevents a losing season, it gives the Raiders a freakish ending where they would be undefeated in their own division and yet miss the playoffs entirely. 2010 finally witnessed Darren McFadden emerge as a valuable rusher but little else happened. Jason Campbell has been no answer for the passing woes and the wideouts rank only 29th in the league.

QUARTERBACK: Jason Campbell winds down his year where he was replaced by Bruce Gradkowski and got his job back only thanks to injury. Campbell may not be the starter or even on the team to start next year. He passed for 229 yards and one score in the previous game with the Chiefs and had one interception. If he can even replicate that average game this week it will be a major success. The main problem is that the Raiders really only use the tight end and the Chiefs rank #3 against that position.

RUNNING BACKS: Darren McFadden was held out of Raiders practice Wednesday with an ankle injury and there has been no word to the severity of his injury other than it is not turf toe which has dogged him since coming to the NFL. Back in week nine, McFadden rushed for 89 yards on 17 carries and added four catches for 25 yards. I will assume a limited McFadden can play this week and update as needed. Michael Bush would take up any slack needed but he only had five carries for 17 yards in the first meeting in Oakland.

The Raiders rushing attack is not attractive this week even if McFadden ends up completely healthy.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It was his first breakout game when Jacoby Ford went from no more than 22 yards per week to a six-catch, 148 yard game against the visiting Chiefs in week nine. Darrius Heyward-Bey had five passes and no catches in that game and Johnnie Lee Higgins only managed 26 yards on three catches. This is one of the poorest wide receiver units and that in part reflects the quarterbacking that has been substandard under Campbell. No reason to expect a fantasy starter to emerge from this group this week. Even Ford has only done much as a returner since that game.

TIGHT ENDS: Zach Miller has been the only difference maker as a receiver in this offense and even then he battled an ankle injury from midseason until about three weeks ago. Miller did not play in the first meeting with the Chiefs but their defense is highly ranked against the position. I like one passing score though and that is always most likely to be Miller who leads the team with five receiving touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 22 1 29 18 2 9
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 15 16 20 3 8 2
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) OAK -7 15 -9 -15 6 -7


Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD W 21-14 10 @DEN L 29-49
2 @CLE W 16-14 11 ARI W 31-13
3 SF W 31-10 12 @SEA W 42-24
4 Bye - 13 DEN W 10-6
5 @IND L 9-19 14 @SD L 0-31
6 @HOU L 31-35 15 @STL W 27-13
7 JAC W 42-20 16 TEN W 34-14
8 BUF W 13-10 17 OAK --
9 @OAK L 20-23 - - -
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 50 -
RB Thomas Jones 50,1 - -
TE Tony Moeaki - 60 -
WR Chris Chambers - 30 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 50,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: HC Todd Haley says that he won't rest any starters this week since the #3 seed is somehow worth protecting from the Colts even though it is unclear if they would play the Ravens or Jets. Then again, the #3 seed would not have to play in New England until the Championship game so there is some method to his madness. And all the better for fantasy players.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Cassel passed for 216 yards and two scores in the Oakland game and he has scored at least once in each of the last ten games with multiple touchdowns in most. If the Raiders are without McFadden or even if he is limited, it would likely depress their score and therefore the need to throw for Cassel. His past performance in Oakland is likely the high side of what to expect this week.

RUNNING BACKS: The Chiefs did not run that well in Oakland when Jamaal Charles gained only 53 yards on ten carries and had 47 yards on five catches. Thomas Jones went for only 32 yards on 19 runs in that matchup. Expect a home game to be better for Charles unless Haley wants to protect him for the playoffs. The Raiders should be better against the pass this time thanks to a healthy secondary that will limit Dwayne Bowe. That only helps Charles both as a runner and a receiver. Jones tags along purely to keep Charles from being overworked since Jones has been marginal at best in the second half of the season.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dwayne Bowe has experienced a big breakout season but he has been the only wideout that has matter at all. He has 15 touchdowns but no other wideout has more than one. In week nine, he scored once on his five catches for 63 yards since CB Nnamdi Asomugha was not 100 % healthy but he is now and he comes off limiting Reggie Wayne to only one catch for 14 yards last week. Bowe has been a huge surprise this year but he also had slowed down for three weeks until blowing up on the Titans last week. But when Bowe faced Champ Bailey in week 13 he had no catches. Expect at least a step down from Bowe and it could be a big drop.

TIGHT ENDS: Tony Moeaki has always played better at home this year and yet he was able to rein in six catches for 63 yards in Oakland earlier this year. He is a safe start for moderate yardage but only has one touchdown in the last 11 games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 21 2 23 20 25 16
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 24 25 9 24 15 13
Advantage(+) or Disadvantage(-) KC 3 23 -14 4 -10 -3

WEEK 17
2010
MIA at NE OAK at KC CHI at GB BUF at NYJ
TB at NO TEN at IND MIN at DET SD at DEN
CAR at ATL JAC at HOU NYG at WAS STL at SEA
  DAL at PHI CIN at BAL PIT at CLE ARI at SF
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