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Schedule Swings considers what defenses actually allowed last year and then applies it both to last year (to see how truly easy or tough a schedule was) and this year. And then it compares the two to show how much tougher a schedule is or isn't. Bottom line - if a schedule is roughly the same strength as last year and no other dynamics are at play, then a player should end up about the same. If a player had a big 2010 but his schedule was far easier than this year, then he's most likely due for a downgrade. And if a player excelled against a bad schedule in 2010 and now has a great one, man - grab that guy.
Without making this all excessively complicated, you can view here what each defense/venue allowed per game in 2010 and how each one was a relative advantage or disadvantage.
Applying those values against the 2010 schedule for each team yielded this view of last year.
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