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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 3
2011
ARI at SEA * DET at MIN * KC at SD NYJ at OAK
* ATL at TB GB at CHI MIA at CLE * PIT at IND
* BAL at STL * HOU at NO NE at BUF * SF at CIN
* UPDATED DEN at TEN JAC at CAR * NYG at PHI * WAS at DAL (mon)

Prediction: NE 37, BUF 30

Players to Watch: Chad Ochocinco

This looks like another Patriot win though the Bills are 2-0 and are really posting the points - 79 so far compared to 73 for the Patriots and this is being played in Buffalo. The Bills may not win this but with a nine point spread on the game, they are bound to exceed expectations for the third week in a row. As an added bonus - this should be a shootout if the Bills offense is for real and that just benefits all of us.

The Pats swept the Bills last year, winning 38-30 at home and later 34-3 in Buffalo.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIA 38-24 10 @NYJ -
2 SD 35-21 11 KC -
3 @BUF - 12 @PHI -
4 @OAK - 13 IND -
5 NYJ - 14 @WAS -
6 DAL - 15 @DEN -
7 Bye - 16 MIA -
8 @PIT - 17 BUF -
9 NYG - - - -
Patriots Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ENGLAND at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady - - 350,3
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 60,1 - -
RB Danny Woodhead 20 20 -
TE Rob Gronkowski - 90,1 -
WR Chad Ochocinco - 50 -
WR Deion Branch - 80,1 -
WR Wes Welker - 100,1 -
PK S. Gostkowski 3 FG 4 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Patriots are once again looking like the cream of the AFC crop the way they spit of 35+ point games every week while Tom Brady makes it look easy. This is a divisional game and one that the Pats must have. The Bills are not going to sneak up on them either. We know wonderful fantasy points are about to happen, the only question is who gets what.

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady holds the current record now for having thrown for 940 yards in just two games. With the specter of a shootout again this week, the Brady owners must be very, very happy in every league. He is basically counting like two quarterbacks for your team so far.

Brady passed for 140 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo last year. Not likely this go around. He's on a mission and the Bills are scoring much more than last year.

RUNNING BACKS: Aside from a score each week from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the ground game has really not done that much and it only serves to give more reason to Brady to pass the ball. Danny Woodhead opened the year nicely but then went back under his rock last Sunday with only 27 total yards. Green-Ellis has no role as a receiver and yet still has no more than 17 carries in a game.

Green-Ellis rushed for 104 yards in Buffalo last year while Woodhead gained 93 yards and a score. He also added 32 adds as a receiver. With the Bills scoring more and the Pats rushing less, expect smaller stats from the two this time.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Here is where the fun should be. Deion Branch has been nearly as good as Wes Welker. Branch has totaled 15 catches for 223 yards while Welker has 15 receptions for 241 yards and two touchdowns. The only one not in the fun has been Chad Ochocinco but that may be changing since Aaron Hernandez has been lost for a month or so with a MCL sprain and someone needs to take up the slack. Hernandez did most of his work lined up as a wide receiver. So far Ochocinco has only caught three passes while willingly admitting that he is learning the playbook. Now he may need to learn as he works.

The Bills have seemingly been tough on wideouts so far but have only faced KC and OAK which are hardly passing giants. And yet the Raiders threw for 323 yards and two scores including 146 yards for Denarius Moore. Start your Pats with pride.

TIGHT ENDS: The loss of Aaron Hernandez to an MCL sprain could cost him up to six weeks of recovery but his absence should remove all reasons why you would ever not start Rob Gronkowski. He has merely scored three times already and gained exactly 86 yards in both games. That could go higher without Hernandez.

Gronkowski scored twice and had 54 yards on four catches in Buffalo while Alge Crumpler replaced an injured Hernandez and scored a touchdown on his one catch in the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 1 20 3 1 10 13
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 14 31 8 4 2 1


Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL -
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA -
3 NE - 12 @NYJ -
4 @CIN - 13 TEN -
5 PHI - 14 @SD -
6 @NYG - 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS - 17 @NE -
9 NYJ -      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 320,3
RB Fred Jackson 50 20 -
RB C.J. Spiller 10 40,1 -
TE Scott Chandler - 20 -
WR David Nelson - 80,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 110,1 -
WR Donald Jones - 40 -
PK Rian Lindell 3 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Nothing like a lot of offense to make the season start right. The Bills have scored an astounding 79 points so far and are 2-0 but have only beaten the 0-2 Chiefs and the Raiders who never beat anyone outside of the AFC West. So progress has been made, but maybe the playoff tickets can wait. The offense has been more than merely good though and even just a good showing this week in a loss will indicate these Bills are becoming a factor in the AFC East again.

QUARTERBACK: After just two weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for seven touchdowns and now faces a defense that has allowed two passing touchdowns per opponent and an average of 397 passing yards. The Bills are using tight ends again and the rushing game has found new life. But this week will be all about playing from behind and that means plenty of passing yards to go along with those scores.

Fitzpatrick passed for 251 yards and no scores against the Pats last year.

RUNNING BACKS: The Bills would love nothing more than to run Fred Jackson all day and while he has turned in back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards, the Pats defense is better than that and inevitably the score gets out of hand and the opponent only gets about 15 runs before giving it up entirely. The opening schedule has been fairly weak but still Jackson has looked as good as he ever has and will be at least a partial factor this week.

Jackson gained 81 yards on 13 carries against the visiting Pats last season. C.J. Spiller actually had the rare decent game with 30 rushing yards and 54 yards on two receptions.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Bills have put Roscoe Parrish on injured reserve with an ankle injury. Steve Johnson has scored once in both games this year and had 66 and 96 yards in those games. David Nelson has become the #2 in the scheme with games of 4-66 and 10-82 with one score last week. Donald Jones still plays outside but has been a much less used target. This week should be a big game for both Johnson and Nelson as it has for every starting wideout against the Pats this year. Vincent Jackson just ripped them for 172 yards and two scores last week.

Johnson had five catches for 58 yards and Donald Jones turned in 54 yards on five receptions when the Pats visited last season.

TIGHT ENDS: The Bills never used the tight ends last year but so far Scott Chandler is the leading scorer for the Bills with three touchdowns in just two games. He opened with five catches for 63 yards and then had two receptions for 16 yards. Chances are he will slow down on scoring and yardage both. But he is worth projecting for at least for now. Chandler had been in the league for five years without a single catch. He is no secret find.

The Bills had no passes thrown to a tight end in this matchup last season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 7 3 8 7 8 19
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 22 31 10 4 2

WEEK 3
2011
ARI at SEA DET at MIN KC at SD NYJ at OAK
ATL at TB GB at CHI MIA at CLE PIT at IND
BAL at STL HOU at NO NE at BUF SF at CIN
  DEN at TEN JAC at CAR NYG at PHI WAS at DAL (mon)

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