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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 3
2011
ARI at SEA * DET at MIN * KC at SD NYJ at OAK
* ATL at TB GB at CHI MIA at CLE * PIT at IND
* BAL at STL * HOU at NO NE at BUF * SF at CIN
* UPDATED DEN at TEN JAC at CAR * NYG at PHI * WAS at DAL (mon)

Prediction: PIT 24, IND 13

Update: Dallas Clark was held out of practices on Wednesday and Friday while only having limited work on Thursday because of his foot. He is questionable to play and the problem is that this is the late ESPN game so you may have no options if Clark is a scratch. Using another tight end is a much safer play.

What a great game we thought this would be. Now... not so much. The Steelers made a correction after being embarrassed by the Ravens and shut out the Seahawks. The Colts are 0-2 and could not beat the visiting Browns. The Colts look a lot like they are playing preseason ball, the sort where you assume half the players are about to get cut on Monday. Should be a nice win for the Steelers and a sore reminder to the Colts that they need some help.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 7-35 10 @CIN -
2 SEA 24-0 11 Bye -
3 @IND - 12 @KC -
4 @HOU - 13 CIN -
5 TEN - 14 CLE -
6 JAC - 15 @SF -
7 @ARI - 16 STL -
8 NE - 17 @CLE -
9 BAL -      
Steelers Report | Statistics | Roster
PITTSBURGH at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger - - 240,1
RB Rashard Mendenhall 90,2 10 -
TE Heath Miller - 20 -
WR Hines Ward - 50 -
WR Emmanuel Sanders - 40 -
WR Mike Wallace - 100,1 -
PK Shaun Suisham 2 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Nice reversal to the opener when the Ravens had their way with the Steelers. The Seahawks put up almost no fight last week so the Steelers defense pitched a shutout and now gets to face a Colts offense with no Peyton Manning. Apparently Peyton held all the magic there and now it's just a tired act that you know how every trick is going to end. Even at home the Colts are not putting up that much fight.

QUARTERBACK: After two games, Ben Roethlisberger has turned in almost exactly the same numbers - around 290 yards and one touchdown each week. The Colts have been good against the pass in other years and even this season have not allowed more than 220 yards or one touchdown. But that has been more a function of allowing more rushing success which could be a factor this week as well. Expect a decent showing here by Roethlisberger but unlikely a big game because he will not need it.

RUNNING BACKS: Facing the visiting Seahawks was disappointing when Rashard Mendenhall only came away with 66 rushing yards on 19 carries but he scored once. Actually so did Isaac Redman who got into the action for 10 carries and 49 yards since the game was already well in hand anyway. This road game should be almost all about Mendenhall as it was in the first week. Look for the Steelers to score once and likely twice on the ground though Redman could again steal that score. The Colts allowed the Browns to gain 96 rush yards and two scores last week in Indianapolis. That's a decent starting point for this since the Steelers bring a better defense than Cleveland did.

WIDE RECEIVERS: At least it makes it easy. The wideouts have all had one game around 60 yards and another with very low yardage - nothing to merit a fantasy start. Except for Mike Wallace who has back-to-back 100+ yard games and one score so far. He is the only Steeler worth a start and he is always a must start regardless of matchup. Andre Johnson already gained 95 yards and a score on this defense, Wallace can do the same. Hines Ward doesn't do enough to merit a start but if he was to be injured, then Emmanuel Sanders would be the one to watch here.

TIGHT ENDS: So far Heath Miller has been a nonfactor and in this week's game he'll more likely be blocking anyway. No fantasy value here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 19 19 9 24 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 5 28 7 19 27 24


Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC -
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT - 12 CAR -
4 @TB - 13 @NE -
5 KC - 14 @BAL -
6 @CIN - 15 TEN -
7 @NO - 16 HOU -
8 @TEN - 17 @JAC -
9 ATL -      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS vs PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins - - 190,1
RB Delone Carter 20 - -
RB Joseph Addai 50 30 -
TE Dallas Clark - 40,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 70,1 -
WR Austin Collie - 30 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 30 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: Two games into the Non-Manning Colts and the results are no less disappointing. Back at home against the Browns was probably the easiest matchup of the year and yet the Browns dispatched the Colts by eight points. The rushing game has never been much here since the days of Edgerrin James but at least Manning always led a great passing attack. Now? Just a team that cannot sustain drives or control games.

QUARTERBACK: After two weeks, Kerry Collins has not done much to inspire confidence in the future. He has two straight games of around 190 yards and one score with a total of three lost fumbles and one interception. Aside from Reggie Wayne, no receiver for the Colts is worth a start on a fantasy team but there has been no word about considering any change now or in the near future. Collins is as good as it is going to be at least for a while.

The Steelers bring in a defense that loves to attack the quarterback and that should lead to more turnovers this week.

RUNNING BACKS: With no passing game to push back the defense, the running effort has been even worse than normal. Joseph Addai has yet to score and has not gained more than 64 rushing yards in a game so far though he did have four catches for 37 yards against the Browns. Delone Carter plays an nearly equal role currently though he has never had a pass and has yet to score a touchdown. This is a mediocre backfield at best that is divided into two to make it even less attractive.

No need to consider either for a start though Addai should have a few catches to offer at least marginal value if you are in a pinch.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Oddly it all boils down now. Reggie Wayne remains worth a fantasy start and no other wideout here does. Both Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have not yet had more than 39 yards in a game and have not scored. Wayne has managed to maintain some value but even he only managed 66 yards on four catches last Sunday against the Browns. This week he is worth a start but does carry some risk.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark has only caught four passes in each of the first two games but he did score on the Browns and along with Wayne is the only receiver with any value. The Steelers gave up 104 yards and a score to the Ravens so Clark is probably the lowest risk Colts' player to score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 29 29 25 15 18 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 7 18 2 22 6 25

WEEK 3
2011
ARI at SEA DET at MIN KC at SD NYJ at OAK
ATL at TB GB at CHI MIA at CLE PIT at IND
BAL at STL HOU at NO NE at BUF SF at CIN
  DEN at TEN JAC at CAR NYG at PHI WAS at DAL (mon)

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