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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 4
2011
* ATL at SEA * DET at DAL * NO at JAC * SF at PHI
BUF at CIN * MIA at SD * NYG at ARI * TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL * WAS at STL
* UPDATED * DEN at GB * NE at OAK PIT at HOU * IND at TB (mon)

Prediction: BUF 31, CIN 20

Players to Watch: Bernard Scott, Andre Caldwell

The Bills are the talk of the NFL and the surprise of the season. At 3-0, they rule the AFC East with the highest scoring offense in the league at around 38 points per game. They just beat the visiting Patriots to end a losing streak of 15 times the Pats had won the matchup. And their defense is bad enough- with a beat up secondary - that now we are getting shootouts every week. The Bengals lost their home opener to the 49ers and it is still not known how many Bengal players make it to this game or veer off with suspensions or legal issues.

The Bills won 49-31 in Cincinnati last year.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL -
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA -
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ -
4 @CIN - 13 TEN -
5 PHI - 14 @SD -
6 @NYG - 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS - 17 @NE -
9 NYJ -      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 270,3
RB Fred Jackson 100,1 20 -
TE Scott Chandler - 30,1 -
WR David Nelson - 80,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 100,1 -
WR Donald Jones - 30 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 4 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bills fans certainly got a game for the ages when they fought back from a 21-0 deficit to win the game and kill the 16-game long losing streak. But the game also served notice to the rest of the league that this offense is no fluke. They have posted big points both passing and rushing and have multiple weapons to use. HC Chan Gailey is finally doing in Buffalo what he was not allowed to hang around long enough to do in Dallas.

QUARTERBACK: All Ryan Fitzpatrick has done is throw for nine touchdowns this year while averaging 280 yards per game. And he's not relying on just one or even two players to get the job done. The offense is clicking on all cylinders and the defense is bad enough to force a weekly shootout. Who could want anything more?

Fitzpatrick passed for 316 yards and four touchdowns in Cincy last year. The Bengals have allowed only around 200 pass yards per game but have only faced CLE, DEN and SF. This will be a new experience for them.

RUNNING BACKS: Fred Jackson continues to make this look like a career best season for him. He has scored three touchdowns and gained 303 rushing yards. Last week he even added five catches for 87 yards though that was very out of character for him. He only had five touchdowns in all of last year as a rusher.

Jackson gained 116 yards and two scores on 21 carries in Cincy last season. Expect a good game here that could end up big.

C.J. Spiller produced a net of four yards lost on his one carry and one catch last week. He is a huge bust - no way around it.

WIDE RECEIVERS: No doubt that Steve Johnson is going to be an elite receiver for years to come and a top ten or even top five wideout in the league. He already has scored once in all three games and never had less than 66 yards. He is a must start each week. Donald Jones comes off his first 100 yard game when he turned five receptions into 101 yards but that was his first game of note after very minimal stats the first two weeks. David Nelson has really come on a a possession receiver for Fitzpatrick. He has nearly matched the production of Johnson every week with the exception of just one touchdown this year. This is a very productive unit of wideouts and both Johnson and Nelson are worthy of every week starts.

Johnson had a monster game in Cincy last year when he caught eight passes for 137 yards and three touchdowns. Donald Jones ended with 70 yards and one score on his five catches. The Bengals have not yet faced a set of receivers as good as these.

TIGHT ENDS: Scott Chandler is apparently taking cues from the Patriots. Like Rob Gronkowski last year, all Chandler does is catch one or two passes per week and one has always been a touchdown. And he faces the team that allowed two scores to tight ends for the Browns in week one and 114 yards to Vernon Davis last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 5 4 2 10 4 5
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 5 14 3 27 6 5


Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 27-17 10 PIT -
2 @DEN 22-24 11 @BAL -
3 SF 8-13 12 CLE -
4 BUF - 13 @PIT -
5 @JAC - 14 HOU -
6 IND - 15 @STL -
7 Bye - 16 ARI -
8 @SEA - 17 BAL -
9 @TEN -      
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton - - 230,2
RB Cedric Benson 70 - -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 50,1 -
WR A.J. Green - 60,1 -
WR Jerome Simpson - 40 -
WR Andre Caldwell - 50 -
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals wasted an excellent chance to get a win last week when the 49ers visited and it may never be that easy again this year. Jerome Simpson played a little but has pending legal woes and Cedric Benson is likely to get suspended. Throw in Jordan Shipley going to injured reserve and the Bengals are running out of bodies.

QUARTERBACK: Two full games as a starter and we've seen two different Andy Daltons. He passed for 332 yards and two scores in Denver but then only managed 157 yards and two interceptions against the 49ers last week. In fairness, this is a team already in trouble because of injuries, looming suspensions and now warehousing marijuana.

Carson Palmer passed for 230 yards and two scores on the Bills last year.

The Bills secondary has been shredded in recent weeks with six touchdowns and over 320 yards given up to both Tom Brady and Jason Campbell. But Dalton has to still be considered a risk to rely on as shown last week. The team around him is struggling and that makes Dalton even hard to rely on.

RUNNING BACKS: Cedric Benson is still appealing his suspension and apparently has a case according to some since the NFLPA did not exist during his latest transgression. Benson has been mediocre this year outside of breaking a 39-yard touchdown at the end of the Cleveland game and even playing the Bills is no guarantee he will show up much. No reason to expect more than his moderate yardage with no catches.

I will update if anything changes with his status for this week.

Benson gained 124 yards and one touchdown on 25 runs when the Bills visited last year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A.J. Green not only failed to score last week, he only had 29 yards on four catches for his worst showing in the NFL. Jerome Simpson was allowed to make one catch for six yards but Andre Caldwell was busier with his six receptions for 53 yards. Until legal issues force him from the field, the assumption continues to be that Simpson will play and Caldwell will spend time in the slot replacing Shipley.

This should be a decent place to see a score to Green but the whole team is a risk now.

TIGHT ENDS: It was encouraging in the 49ers loss to see that Jermaine Gresham at least was not forgotten and he ended with four catches for 51 yards after being targeted eight times. The Bills were scorched by Rob Gronkowski last week so Gresham has a bit of upside on Sunday.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 25 27 16 16 11 22
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 25 23 24 1 2

WEEK 4
2011
ATL at SEA DET at DAL NO at JAC SF at PHI
BUF at CIN MIA at SD NYG at ARI TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL WAS at STL
  DEN at GB NE at OAK PIT at HOU IND at TB (mon)

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