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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 4
2011
* ATL at SEA * DET at DAL * NO at JAC * SF at PHI
BUF at CIN * MIA at SD * NYG at ARI * TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL * WAS at STL
* UPDATED * DEN at GB * NE at OAK PIT at HOU * IND at TB (mon)

Prediction: IND 13, TB 20

Players to Watch: Pierre Garcon

Update: Curtis Painter has been named the starting quarterback over Kerry Collins who has a concussion. If Paint can be at all average or better, Collins will remain the backup. I am adding him into the projections but it only makes all the Colts a little more risky than they already were.

The Colts played an inspired game, relatively speaking, and yet fell short of winning against the visiting Steelers and that should take some wind out of their sails as they hit the road with their 0-3 record. The Buccaneers just beat the visiting Falcons and are feeling pretty good about now. I mean, they get to play the Colts-Lite this year. This is the Monday night game and it probably looked better on the schedule last summer than it does now.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC -
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT 20-23 12 CAR -
4 @TB - 13 @NE -
5 KC - 14 @BAL -
6 @CIN - 15 TEN -
7 @NO - 16 HOU -
8 @TEN - 17 @JAC -
9 ATL -      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS at TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Curtis Painter - - 190,1
RB Joseph Addai 50 10 -
TE Dallas Clark - 30,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 70 -
WR Austin Collie - 20 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 60 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Colts clearly surprised the Steelers in the loss but whether it was the Colts all coming back together again or just that the Steelers did not expect the resistance remains to be seen. The rushing game was better though against the toughest defense so far. The passing offense remains mostly in shambles and there may be a new quarterback this week if only because the old one is not working.

QUARTERBACK: Kerry Collins has clearly not been up to the task of leading the Colts and in fairness he 's still been with the team less than a month. Collins was knocked out of the Steelers game and let Curtis Painter come in. On the plus side, Painter passed for 60 yards when he went five of 11 and almost all went to Pierre Garcon. But he also lost a fumble that was turned into a score.

The Colts owner has said he still holds out hope that Manning may be back by December but it all sounds like the same reasoning you use to keep that pair of jeans from high school because you may lose a ton of weight sometime.

I'll project for Collins and swap him for Painter if that happens. You are not going to start either one anyway. The Buccaneers secondary is nothing special.

RUNNING BACKS: While Delone Carter has proven to be more than ready to return to the league waiver wire, at least Joseph Addai was a big surprise when he rushed for 86 yards on 17 carries and scored a short touchdown against the Steelers. Again - maybe the Steelers did not think it could happen like most people. But it did and at least gives some hope to the offense.

The Buccaneers playing at home are tough against the run. They just held Michael Turner to 20 yards on 11 carries. Addai remains a very risky start and on the road even more so. Next week when the Chiefs come to Indy - then you'll trot Addai out with your starters.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This unit has been a shell of their former self and even Reggie Wayne has taken a nosedive since the opener. Wayne ended with only 24 yards on three catches against the Steelers. Pierre Garcon was a surprise when he turned in 82 yards on six catches on the Steelers and most of that coming from Curtis Painter who may be the starter this week. It is too early to consider starting any of these wideouts aside from Wayne and even he is an obvious risk. But Garcon bears watching to see if Painter starts to favor him instead of the double covered Wayne.

The Bucs have allowed some monster games to wideouts already this year but outside of Wayne it is not reliable enough to merit fantasy consideration. Wayne should be a decent play if the Colts actually can start to play well on the road.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark has lost almost all value with no more than 39 yards in any game but he has scored once this year and the Buccaneers have allowed two scores to the position. He's an even risk to score along with Wayne.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 30 28 27 21 19 8
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 18 18 20 20 20 7


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DET 20-27 10 HOU -
2 @MIN 24-20 11 @GB -
3 ATL 16-13 12 @TEN -
4 IND - 13 CAR -
5 @SF - 14 @JAC -
6 NO - 15 DAL -
7 CHI - 16 @CAR -
8 Bye - 17 @ATL -
9 @NO -      
Buccaneers Report | Statistics | Roster
TAMPA BAY vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 20 - 220,1
RB LeGarrette Blount 90,1 - -
TE Kellen Winslow Jr. - 40 -
WR Preston Parker - 50 -
WR Mike Williams - 50 -
WR Arrelious Benn - 20,1 -
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The win over the Falcons already makes the Buccaneers a contender in the NFC South. Granted the offense is no juggernaut and the Saints remain waiting in three weeks. But the defense made some big plays and the offense was just good enough. This week should be possibly the easiest matchup of the season. The Bucs could be ready for a letdown after beating the Falcons, but probably not. They are not nearly good enough to not play hard every week.

QUARTERBACK: After such a promising 2010 season, Josh Freeman has been little more than a game manager so far. He has only two touchdowns against four interceptions and has topped out at 259 yards so far. The Colts are allowing one passing score per opponent every week and on the road should at least allow Freeman his standard 240 passing yards. Freeman finally rushed in one score on the Falcons after adding more fantasy value as a runner last year.

RUNNING BACKS: LeGarrette Blount is warming up. He comes off a season high 81 yards on 24 runs versus the Falcons and scored twice in Minnesota on his 13 carries for 71 yards. Blount even had a reception last Sunday. Whatever happens on the ground goes through Blount who has looked good these last two weeks.

The Colts were able to stuff Mendenhall last week but gave up major yards and scores the two previous weeks. Expect at least a decent showing here and a chance for one of the bigger games of the year for Blount. It depends on the Colts defense obviously but on the road they have always had trouble against the run.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is where the problem lies for Freeman. There is just nothing happening here. Mike Williams scored his first game but still only has 10 catches for 89 yards on the year. Arrelious Benn is making very small inroads and has scored once but never gained more than 27 yards in a game. Preston Parker had a nice game in Minnesota from the slot but then only produced one catch for 11 yards last week.

I like one touchdown to the wideouts but it could go anywhere and the confidence is low. I will give it to Benn more as a placeholder than an expectation.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow Jr. had no offseason surgery and claims to be in good shape but was questionable to play last week. He only had two catches for 20 yards and has yet to score this year. He had 66 yards in the opener but then almost nothing. One more bad game and you can officially send him to your bench until further notice.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 21 19 26 19 16 17
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 9 24 16 16 30 27

WEEK 4
2011
ATL at SEA DET at DAL NO at JAC SF at PHI
BUF at CIN MIA at SD NYG at ARI TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL WAS at STL
  DEN at GB NE at OAK PIT at HOU IND at TB (mon)

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