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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 4
2011
* ATL at SEA * DET at DAL * NO at JAC * SF at PHI
BUF at CIN * MIA at SD * NYG at ARI * TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL * WAS at STL
* UPDATED * DEN at GB * NE at OAK PIT at HOU * IND at TB (mon)

Prediction: NYJ 14, BAL 31

Players to Watch: None

The Jets come off an embarrassing loss in Oakland and hit the road again to play an even better team. The Ravens return home for the second time and while they lost in Tennessee, they have smoked both other opponents in a big way. Ravens only have a bye on the other side of this game while the Jets get to travel for the third week in a row and go to New England.

The Ravens beat the Jets 10-9 in New York for the season opener of 2010.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE -
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN -
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL - 13 @WAS -
5 @NE - 14 KC -
6 MIA - 15 @PHI -
7 SD - 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF -      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 310,2
RB Shonn Greene 40 - -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 20 60 -
TE Dustin Keller - 80,1 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 40,1 -
WR Derrick Mason - 30 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 90 -
PK Nick Folk FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The problem with the Jets so far has surprisingly been the opposite of what was expected. The passing game is productive and consistent. The running game has almost evaporated and the defense has all the consistency of a politician on a cross-country tour. These next two games are going to be brutal if the offense cannot produce more rushing and the defense tightens up across the board.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez broke his nose in Oakland but that won't impact his playing. He has been rather consistent with two touchdowns in every game and two of his efforts topped 330 passing yards. He's making a star of Dustin Keller and not even using the wideouts all that much. The pass works here finally even if nothing else really does.

Sanchez passed for just 74 yards on the Ravens last year. All opponents have scored once on them so far this season and posted healthy yardage. With the run certain to be slowed down and the score likely to be escalating, Sanchez will have to have another one of his games with 40 passes.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene continues to underwhelm with only 59 rushing yards in Oakland and that was a season high. He had an unusual seven catches for 47 yards though after only three small catches in his first two games. Safe to say your blocking is bad when your burly between-the-tackles runner is better off catching a swing pass.

LaDainian Tomlinson kept the team in the Oakland game. He ran six times for 38 yards and added 116 yards and a score on five catches. He looked like a better runner than Greene but there is no way he can withstand a bigger load at his age. Tomlinson has stepped up big in both games where the Jets were really challenged by the defense and that should happen again on Sunday. The Ravens have only allowed one rushing touchdown this year and no runner has more than 75 yards against them.

The Jets only gained 80 yards on the Ravens last year on 16 carries.

WIDE RECEIVERS: For being three acclaimed wideouts in various stages of their careers, the Jets receivers have really not lived up to their billing. Santonio Holmes has only one score and at most 70 yards in a game and only managed one catch for 19 yards in Oakland which he was kind enough to complain about publicly. Plaxico Burress has scored in two games but had no catches against the Jaguars but that is a favorable sign since it was the only game the Jets won handily and when they are really tested, Burress has stepped up. Derrick Mason turns in stats like a tight end drafted to block.

This is the Ravens bigger weakness and three wideouts have posted 99+ yards on the defense already. I like the one score to end up with Burress more since he comes to life the harder the matchup and Holmes should see decent to good yardage and maybe even a big game if the coaches just want to shut him up after last week.

TIGHT ENDS: Somehow Dustin Keller has ended up as the primary receiver in this offense with 16 catches for 249 yards and two touchdowns. He has never been worse than five catches for 61 yards and is a better than even bet to score each week. The Ravens have been great against tight ends but have not faced any with receiving skills. Keller is now a must start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 7 11 25 2 8 13
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 10 3 25 2 4 9


Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA -
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN -
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF -
4 NYJ - 13 @CLE -
5 Bye - 14 IND -
6 HOU - 15 @SD -
7 @JAC - 16 CLE -
8 ARI - 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT -   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 250,2
RB Ray Rice 90,1 40 -
TE Ed Dickson - 50,1 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 70,1 -
WR Torrey Smith - 60 -
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The loss in Tennessee looks rather out of place surrounded by 29 and 30 point blowouts over the Steelers and Rams. This is only the second home game for the Ravens who then head into their bye a likely 3-1. There is the road trip to Pittsburgh in week nine but chances are the Ravens are going to be favored in every other game this season and for a good reason.

I like a defensive score.

QUARTERBACK: When it works, Joe Flacco passes for three touchdowns and decent to good yardage. When they flop, so does Joe. But the Ravens had only one bad game that has been very uncharacteristic for them and back at home, Flacco should be in top form.

Flacco passed for 248 yards on the Jets last year. They have only allowed two passing touchdowns so far but facing the Jaguars and Raiders passing attacks has hardly been that taxing. The Jets should keep this from being any shootout but Flacco will post at least moderate stats again this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Through three games, Ray Rice has been highly productive and a dual threat. He has three scores on the season and figured in as a receiver (178) nearly as much as a runner (229). He only loses carries in games that become out of reach for the opponent and is heading to be one of the most productive backs for 2011.

Rice only gained 43 yards on 21 carries in New York last year. Willis McGahee stole the one rushing touchdown. The Jets were good against the run in New York but their one trip away was when Darren McFadden (19-172, 2 TD) left them grasping at air and winded from chasing him.

That bodes well this week for Rice who has been consistently good. No reason to bench Rice ever.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Lee Evans was out last week with a bad ankle and may miss this week as well. In his place the rookie Torrey Smith moved up despite never having caught a pass in the NFL. Now he has five receptions and three went for touchdowns. His 152 yards in St. Louis was a rookie record for the Ravens and no doubt is still be talked about at his mother's house. When Evans returns, Smith reverts to the slot but he should get another week at it. Anquan Boldin has turned in 74 yards in the two previous wins with a score in the home game.

As for who Darrell Revis covers, that could change from Boldin to Smith. Boldin gained 110 yards on seven catches against the Ravens last time. It is always a risk to start a wideout against the Jets but the Cowboys had success in week one and this is played in Baltimore.

TIGHT ENDS: Ed Dickson collected five passes for around 50 yards in both the previous wins and scored in the other home game. He should have a decent showing here against the defense that coughed up 110 yards to Jason Witten.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 10 6 17 14 5 1
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 3 26 9 11 9 21

WEEK 4
2011
ATL at SEA DET at DAL NO at JAC SF at PHI
BUF at CIN MIA at SD NYG at ARI TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL WAS at STL
  DEN at GB NE at OAK PIT at HOU IND at TB (mon)

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