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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 4
2011
* ATL at SEA * DET at DAL * NO at JAC * SF at PHI
BUF at CIN * MIA at SD * NYG at ARI * TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL * WAS at STL
* UPDATED * DEN at GB * NE at OAK PIT at HOU * IND at TB (mon)

Prediction: SF 13, PHI 30

Players to Watch: None

Update: Frank Gore has only done limited work this week and is questionable. He is expected to play barring any new development but will be limited in the game and share with Kendall Hunter. I am adjusting the projections and Hunter is probably a safer play than Gore. Braylon Edwards remains out and Michael Crabtree will continue to play with his injured foot and never matter.

The 49ers embark on their second road trip hoping to improve on their 2-1 record that seems impossible compared to how they have played so far. The Eagles have dropped to 1-2 with Vick already being injured twice this season. Played in Philadelphia, this heavily favors the Eagles who cannot afford any more losses.

The Eagles won 27-24 in San Francisco last year.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 33-17 10 NYG -
2 DAL 24-27 11 ARI -
3 @CIN 13-8 12 @BAL -
4 @PHI - 13 STL -
5 TB - 14 @ARI -
6 @DET - 15 PIT -
7 Bye - 16 @SEA -
8 CLE - 17 @STL -
9 @WAS -      
49ers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN FRANCISCO at PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith - - 180,1
RB Frank Gore 30 10 -
RB Kendall Hunter 50 20 -
TE Vernon Davis - 70,1 -
WR Josh Morgan - 30 -
WR Michael Crabtree - 30 -
PK David Akers 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The 49ers have two wins on the season though they have the 28th ranked QB, 29th ranked RB's and are dead last 32nd in wide receiver production. And they came within a field goal of being 3-0. They are all alone at the top in the NFC West but the next few weeks should take care of that. Very little is working well in the offense and yet the 49ers have been making the best of it.

QUARTERBACK: After three games, Alex Smith has only two passing scores - both at home against the Cowboys - and has been sacked 11 times with one interception. He tops out at only 201 pass yards in a game though he did run in a touchdown back in the opener. Smith's only real contribution is that he is not turning the ball over very often.

Smith passed for 309 yards and three touchdowns on the Eagles last year. He also lost a fumble and threw two interceptions.

That seems atmospheric compared to the 2011 version of Smith. The Eagles have allowed four touchdowns to both Atlanta and New York Giants but Smith cannot be relied on for anything more than mediocrity.

RUNNING BACKS: Frank Gore was in and out of the Bengals game with a bad ankle that he initially thought might keep him out this week. But reports now are that he should play and not be limited so I will update if warranted after practices this week. Gore has been a nonfactor so far with never more than 59 yards in any game and a meager 2.5 yards per carry on his 59 rushing attempts. Gore has been sparingly used as a receiver as well.

Kendall Hunter had nine runs helping out last week and gained 26 yards and one touchdown. He looked faster and shiftier than Gore but will take a back seat again if Gore plays.

Gore gained 52 yards on 18 rushes and added a touchdown on his four receptions for 21 yards on the visiting Eagles in 2010. The Eagles have been softer against the run this year but the 49ers do not appear poised to take any advantage, especially in a road game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: What does the #32 ranked wide receivers look like? It has Braylon Edwards out with a torn right meniscus, Michael Crabtree playing (sort of) with a bad foot and not one of these receivers has gained more than 38 yards in any game this year. Kyle Williams has the only receiving touchdown by a wideout and that came on his only pass all year.

Crabtree had the rare good game when he caught nine passes for 105 yards and one score on the Eagles last time. Do not expect the same. Run away from all 49ers wide receivers.

TIGHT ENDS: Smith finally opted to focus on throwing to Vernon Davis last week and he ended up with eight catches for 118 yards in Cincinnati. He still has not scored but Davis turned five catches into 104 yards and one touchdown on the Eagles last season. He is the best risk for catching the lone touchdown. If Nnamdi Asomugha is stuck on him, it will be a good move by the Eagles though Davis is a mismatch with defensive backs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 28 29 32 13 7 2
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 20 32 7 21 3 16


Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @STL 31-13 10 ARI -
2 @ATL 31-35 11 @NYG -
3 NYG 16-29 12 NE -
4 SF - 13 @SEA -
5 @BUF - 14 @MIA -
6 @WAS - 15 NYJ -
7 Bye - 16 @DAL -
8 DAL - 17 WAS -
9 CHI -      
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30 - 240,2
RB LeSean McCoy 100,1 20,1 -
TE Brent Celek - 10 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 100,1 -
WR Jason Avant - 30 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 60 -
PK Alex Henery 3 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The reports are that Michael Vick will play this week and hope that the 49ers do not knock him out of the game as they did with Tony Romo. While Vick carries the moniker of "injury-prone", two separate maladies in three weeks is high even for him. When Vick is healthy - the Eagles are scoring big and winning games. When he is not - they lose. It really is about that simple.

QUARTERBACK: While he started with a bang - 97 rush yards and 187 pass yards with two touchdowns - Michael Vick has been less impressive as he ends up the last two games injured and grousing about how he apparently is the only one to notice how all other quarterbacks are protected by the referees except for him since roughing the passer is not called in 90% of the cases that Vick thinks it happens.

The current deep bruise to his hand is not expected to keep him out of the game or limit him as it is the non-throwing hand. He may miss a bit of practice to rest it and get the swelling all gone. One element that Vick is short on - rushing. He has no rushing touchdowns this year and the last two weeks only gained 31 yards or less as a runner.

Kevin Kolb was the starter in week five when the Eagles went to San Francisco, He passed for 253 yards and one touchdown.

Expect a bounce back game this week since they are again at home and facing the 49ers who have only faced one decent quarterback (Romo) and gave up 432 yards and two scores to the visiting Cowboys.

RUNNING BACKS: LeSean McCoy is having a huge year with no less than 95 rushing yards every week, a few catches and five touchdowns in total including at least one every game. There is no sharing and McCoy has rushed as many as 24 times in a game. He is very much the next Brian Westbrook and a saving grace when Vick is injured.

McCoy gained 92 yards on 18 receptions with one touchdown in San Francisco last year.

The 49ers have been tough on the run so far with no rushing scores allowed and no more than 64 yards to any runner but SEA, DAL and CIN are not exactly in the same class for running backs as McCoy. Start him with confidence and he may have a big game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The receiving stats are down from last year and DeSean Jackson has only caught four passes for 51 yards over the last two weeks. That has much to do with a healthy Vick. Jeremy Maclin has fared better with a monster game in Atlanta and still had 69 yards on five catches against the Giants but he pulled his hamstring and while the MRI was clear, he is still considered day-to-day. I will assume he can play and update as warranted. Steve Smith would take his place if needed.

Maclin led the receivers with 95 yards on six catches in San Francisco last year while Jackson was held to only 24 yards on two receptions.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 12 5 9 29 15 11
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 16 1 27 14 11 11

WEEK 4
2011
ATL at SEA DET at DAL NO at JAC SF at PHI
BUF at CIN MIA at SD NYG at ARI TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL WAS at STL
  DEN at GB NE at OAK PIT at HOU IND at TB (mon)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t