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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 4
2011
* ATL at SEA * DET at DAL * NO at JAC * SF at PHI
BUF at CIN * MIA at SD * NYG at ARI * TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL * WAS at STL
* UPDATED * DEN at GB * NE at OAK PIT at HOU * IND at TB (mon)

Prediction: WAS 24, STL 16

Players to Watch: Roy Helu

Update: Steven Jackson has been limited in all practices this week and will play but share carries with Carnell Williams again. Danny Amendola had some limited work on Thursday but that was all and while he is listed as questionable he is not expected to play.

A true "Pick 'em" game with the 2-1 Redskins on the road where they are 0-1 and the Rams at home 0-3 and hoping to get a win before their bye next week. Neither offense has done that much but at least the Redskins defense has been decent.

The Rams won 30-16 when the Redskins visited last year.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA -
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL -
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA -
4 @STL - 13 NYJ -
5 Bye - 14 NE -
6 PHI - 15 @NYG -
7 @CAR - 16 MIN -
8 @BUF - 17 @PHI -
9 SF -      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 290,2
RB Tim Hightower 60,1 30 -
TE Fred Davis - 80,1 -
TE Chris Cooley - 20 -
WR Santana Moss - 70,1 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 20 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 60 -
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: Bitter loss in Dallas by two points when the defense kept the Cowboys out of the endzone but were killed by six field goals. But that was a divisional game which always go off differently because teams know each other so well. This week the Skins are also trying to win so that they go to their bye week with a 3-1 record and stay in contention in the NFC East.

QUARTERBACK: Rex Grossman comes off his worst game of the season but he still posted 250 passing yards and one touchdown against one interception. He has scored in every game this year and has five touchdowns in total. His two home games were both around 300 yards and two scores.

The Rams have allowed all opponents to pass for at least two touchdowns if not three and the yardage has varied as high as 389 just last week by Joe Flacco. Expect healthy yardage and two scores by Grossman.

RUNNING BACKS: The Skins only have one rushing touchdown from the season opener and while Tim Hightower was serviceable, now the rookie Roy Helu is getting seven to 14 touches per week which only serves to diminish the value of Hightower. I will not project for Helu since his production remains less than fantasy relevant and inconsistent. Hightower faces a defense that has allowed three scores to running backs over 100 rushing yards per opponent.

Expect a decent effort from Hightower but Helu will prevent it from being a big game.

WIDE RECEIVERS: In fantasy terms, this is a nice unit. There are only two receivers of any note - Santana Moss and Jabbar Gaffney. These two are currently the most consistent receivers in the league. Moss? - 6-76, 5-61/TD and 5-70. Gaffney? - 3-54/TD, 5-62 and 5-60. Granted, nothing that is winning a league for anyone but consistent means reliable means you know what you are getting. There is high value in that for making lineup decisions.

Moss caught six passes for 124 yards in St. Louis last year.

TIGHT ENDS: In case you were wondering what happened to Fred Davis last Monday, it ends up that not only had Davis been good for around 90 yards per game the first two weeks, but that the Cowboys defense noticed that too. And so they had the linebacking help to actually take Davis out of the equation for all but one catch. Chris Cooley had a season best four receptions for 41 yards but Davis remains the one to own here. The Rams rank #1 against tight ends because they have only faced Brent Celek, Jake Ballard and Ed Dickson. Davis should be a surprise for them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 18 14 18 9 17 9
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 28 29 31 1 19 32


St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 13-31 10 @CLE -
2 @NYG 16-28 11 SEA -
3 BAL 7-37 12 ARI -
4 WAS - 13 @SF -
5 Bye - 14 @SEA -
6 @GB - 15 CIN -
7 @DAL - 16 @PIT -
8 NO - 17 SF -
9 @ARI -      
Rams Report | Statistics | Roster
ST. LOUIS vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 10 - 250,1
RB Steven Jackson 30 - -
RB Carnell Williams 60 20 -
TE Lance Kendricks - 20 -
WR Mike Sims-Walker - 60 -
WR Brandon Gibson - 50 -
WR Danario Alexander - 80,1 -
PK Josh Brown 3 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: The transition to the new Josh McDaniels offense has been brutally slow and not very productive since the Rams rank 29th in points scored this year. Three games in and still never more than one touchdown. Sam Bradford looks now like we assumed he would last year while he was winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year. A loss this week sends the team to their bye week 0-4 but at least both Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola will be healthy by then.

QUARTERBACK: Sam Bradford sprained a toe in the loss to the Ravens but HC Steve Spagnuolo said it was not expected to be a factor on Sunday. He now has only two touchdowns on the year and thanks to a shaky offensive line, he has lost one fumble per week and been sacked 11 times already this year. Losing Amendola has hurt but this offense is just sputtering despite what Bradford is trying to accomplish.

Bradford threw for 235 yards and one score against the visiting Skins last year.

In all three games this year, the Skins have given up right at 250 passing yards and only the Cardinals were able to throw a touchdown on them. Consider that the high side for Bradford.

RUNNING BACKS: Steven Jackson was back to play against the Ravens but only had four carries for 23 yards while Carnell Williams gained 75 yards on 18 carries. The Rams still only have the one rushing touchdown that Jackson scored in his first carry in the season opener. Williams was playing with a tight hamstring last week as well. Jackson did not suffer any setback so he will play this week as well but will split again with Williams.

The Skins have been decent against the run and the Rams are not even average. With a split workload, there is no reliable play here and likely marginal fantasy value. Jackson should be back to 100% after the bye next week.

The Rams gained 117 yards and two touchdowns on 24 carries against the Skins last year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Danny Amendola may practice some this week but he is expected to remain out until after the bye week to allow his elbow more time to heal. Brandon Gibson remains the most consistent wideout though that is with between 50 and 55 yards every week. He scored on the Ravens for the first of the season. Mike Sims-Walker has not scored yet and his 92 yards in New York against the Giants has sandwiched two two efforts totaling only four catches for 41 yards. Danario Alexander has the big game in week two (3-122, TD) but like always flopped last week with only tow catches for 28 yards despite getting eight passes thrown to him.

There is some fantasy value here but it is too inconsistent to rely on outside of Gibson and his weekly 50 yards. The Skins have only allowed one passing score to a wideout this year but both Hakeem Nicks and Larry Fitzgerald had big games. I am crediting Alexander with the score but the confidence is very low.

TIGHT ENDS: Still only marginal production that has never risen above 26 yards by a tight end. No touchdowns yet either.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 26 25 14 26 24 26
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 8 13 11 17 17 13

WEEK 4
2011
ATL at SEA DET at DAL NO at JAC SF at PHI
BUF at CIN MIA at SD NYG at ARI TEN at CLE
CAR at CHI MIN at KC NYJ at BAL WAS at STL
  DEN at GB NE at OAK PIT at HOU IND at TB (mon)

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