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Upon Further Review: Week 5
David Dorey & John Tuvey
October 7, 2011
 

In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections. The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.

STEVAN RIDLEY (vs. NYJ) – PROJECTION: 50 + 20 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: B

TUVEY: I just see so many ways it can go south for Ridley: the Jets’ run defense, which has underachieved mightily to this point, shows up; BenJarvus Green-Ellis steals the goal line looks; the Patriots throw all game and don’t even bother with the run. Without knowing what Ridley’s role will be, I can’t plug him into my lineup with any degree of confidence. And while in a six-team bye week I can imagine scenarios where I’d plug Ridley into my lineup, most of them feel like desperation.

DOREY: Here is the dealio. Danny Woodhead is likely out so it will be BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley. And Ridley is more likely to catch passes than Green-Ellis. There will be some split of rushing duties but this is New England. It could be 50/50 or it could be 90/10.I just split the 100 rush yards between BGE and Ridley to avoid looking like I was saying one would be so much better than the other. I like the two rushing scores in a home game against a Jets team that is weaker against the rush lately so I split them. Me personally? I would never own a NE running back because you cannot predict what they will do. In a numerical sense, I do like the Pats to rush for 100 yards or so and score up to two rushing touchdowns. Who will do that? We all know it could be several players.

CONSENSUS:  Ridley has upside to be sure with Woodhead out and coming off a 10-97 yard game in Oakland with a score. But he has undeniable risk as well that could end up with very marginal stats like 6-42 that he did the previous week. Ridley is a high-risk, moderate reward player that probably only covers bye weeks in big leagues where you just have no other options.

JULIO JONES (vs. GBP) – PROJECTION: 110 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: S3

TUVEY: I see the Falcons trying to keep Green Bay’s offense off the field with a healthy dose of Michael Turner; I also see them being forced to abandon that plan by halftime. Jones is somewhere between an S2 and an S3; I went with S3 because of the aforementioned scenario. Julio falls towards the top of my S3s, so after seeing how the receivers shook down, with only 14 S1s and S2s, if we’re grading on a curve he’d get bumped up to an S2. We’d probably be quibbling even at S2 because DMD projects some hefty numbers, but the way Jones has been playing—and the Pack has been serving up passing game stats—those numbers honestly wouldn’t surprise me.

DOREY: The Packers have never allowed fewer than 273 passing yards this year so far and now they are on the road to Atlanta. One reason is that the Packers rushing defense has not allowed any scoring and minimal yardage. Michael Turner has been only moderate in his rushing and now faces the best rush defense yet. So l like the passing yardage from Ryan who already has thrown for three games with more than 290 yards. So where are those yards going to be distributed? Jones is currently the leader in receiving yardage for the team and comes off two games with 110+ yards. So yeah, I do like him here. I think he has already stunted Roddy White's stats because he has so quickly become a factor in the offense.

CONSENSUS:  There is always a small risk with any receiver and more so with a rookie. But Jones has upside and while not the best play of the weekend, he should offer very nice upside with an ever decreasing amount of risk. Most fantasy teams will not have three other wideouts with a better outlook this week so he is a starter.

CHRIS WELLS (@ MIN) – PROJECTION: 70 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: B

TUVEY: Wells’ monster game last week feels flukish, but I’m an admitted Beanie-basher. I don’t trust his offensive line, I don’t trust his hamstring, and I certainly don’t trust him on the road in Minnesota where running backs tend to struggle. I will admit that at every step this season Wells has tossed my doubts back in my face, and if he does so again I’ll be forced to hop on board the Beanie Bandwagon. But for the moment, I still have the under on a 1,000-yard season for Wells.

DOREY: I have to assign hard stats on the guy and all he has done is rush for 90+ yards and a score in every single game. Those were CAR, @WAS and NYG. His only other road game had him gain 93 yards on 14 carries with one score. I have never liked Wells but I have to pay attention to the stats and so far - pretty dang good. And when I watch him, it is not like the Wells of the last year or so. The Vikings are a tough matchup and hence why I have him with his worst game yet. But The Vikes faced DET and KC who just never run well anyway. The only other home stand was against the Buccaneers who gave up 13-71 rushing to LeGarrette Blount and he scored two touchdowns there. Mike Tolbert had one the previous week. Those are big guys like Wells. I do not own Wells and I have never liked him, but going in to this game the past suggests that Wells should have a decent game. Face it, he has surprised every single week so far.

CONSENSUS:  At some point you have to put past opinions aside and recognize what is happening no matter how reality bending it seems to be. Wells has rushed very well and has scored five times already. He does not catch passes and he has been prone to injury. But he's very likely worth the 70 yards and so far a great likelihood of that touchdown.

DAVID NELSON (vs. PHI) – PROJECTION: 70 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING S3

TUVEY: I have all three Bills wideouts as starters even though the Eagles’ secondary is stacked. Nelson, as the slot guy, will likely have the most favorable matchup. But I have he and Jones—and Stevie Johnson, for that matter—as S3s because I’m not so sure he ducks Nnamdi Asomugha or Asante Samuel. Mix in what I think Fred Jackson can get done on the ground against Philly and I don’t have enough confidence in the Bills’ secondary targets to rank them as anything more than borderline starters.

DOREY: This one is born out of "the numbers gotta go somewhere". I have Fitzpatrick for 230 yards and two scores since he is at home where he posted 264-3 TD against OAK and 369-2 TD against the Pats. The Eagles have not played a decent passing offense so much, having gone against STL, ATL (195-4 TD) , NYG (254-4 TD) and SF (291-2 TD). So 230 yards for Fitzpatrick assumes good times in the rushing game already. How those yards sprinkle out has a lot of variables in play but the corners of Asomugha and Cromartie will go against Donald Jones and Stevie Johnson. I like Nelson a bit more than the other two from what I am best-guessing the corner assignments will be. Nelson's last two home games were against OAK (10-83, TD) and NE (6-84). The touchdown is a single play event and hard to rely on for any wideout. The 70 yards is a decent mixing of the for and against numbers and making the best assumptions I can when having to divide out passing yardage.

CONSENSUS:  Nelson at home has been a decent play so far and the Eagles could decrease what Jones and Johnson do. Forget about the touchdown, is just 70 yards enough to merit a start for you? Whenever you leave the primary wideout for any team and start projecting for secondary receivers, there is also more risk. In this case, the numbers have to go somewhere and Nelson is a decent risk to make them - but a risk all the same.

Start Bench List Ratings:
S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup) U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup) X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely) B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.


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