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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: BUF 24, NYG 27

Players to Watch: Naaman Roosevelt

Two surprising teams and in the wrong way. The Bills are tied with the Pats for the lead in the AFC East while the Giants are 3-2 thanks to losing to the visiting Seahawks on Sunday. This game has the chance for some nice points and could go either way but the Giants are having turnover problems and the Bills have ten interceptions over just the last three games. That could be the swing vote in a close game but the Giants were caught napping last week. There's no looking past the Bills.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL -
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA -
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ -
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN -
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG - 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS - 17 @NE -
9 NYJ -      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 220,2
RB Fred Jackson 80,1 30 -
RB C.J. Spiller 3 5 -
TE Scott Chandler - 10 -
WR David Nelson - 40 -
WR Steve Johnson - 70,1 -
WR Naaman Roosevelt - 50,1 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Bills took down the visiting Eagles and extend their record to 4-1 with a bye on the other side of this game. The offense continues to shine and by both the pass or the rush depending on which works best. The beauty here is that the defense is not that great and forces the offense into a shootout nearly every week. This is a team that typically pays the "over" and this week on the road should be back at some fireworks in New York against a ticked off Giants team.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick has been about as good as the offense needs him to be but not much better. He opened the year with seven touchdowns against the Chiefs and Raiders and managed two scores on the Pats with 369 yards but since has been little more than a game manager. He passed for only 199 yards and no scores in the road loss to the Bengals and then 193 yards and one touchdown versus the visiting Eagles. That's all over the place and yet the Bill have been good about posting around 30 points per game.

The Giants pass defense has much improved and allowed only three touchdowns over the last four games. The Seahawks were a surprise with 315 pass yards but the two previous opponents had no passing touchdown downs. Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but will have to throw in this game. That should mean at least moderate yardage and one or two scores.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller said he is not worried about his slow start and that he knows he can play in this league. What he failed to disclose was "play what?" It is not running back so far. His last three games never had more than 21 total yards... why bother?

Fred Jackson is quite different. He has started his magic season which will make all others pale in comparison (especially since he turns 31 in February). Jackson has scored in each of the last four weeks and has never had anything remotely close to a bad game yet. He is ranked #3 in rushing yardage (480). He's adding up to 85 yards per week in receptions as a dual threat. He's everything they are paying Spiller to be and looks like this year's version of Arian Foster.

The Giants have not been good at stopping the run this year with nearly every opponent scoring at least once via the run and the main runner from each of the last three opponents turning in at least 98 rushing yards. You'll start him anyway but no reason to expect his first bad game here. Jackson is making owners rich.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The Bills lose Donald Jones to a high ankle sprain for the next four to six weeks and in his place slot receiver David Nelson moves over. That may not be ideal for Nelson who has done all his damage from the slot. He had a score in the Eagles game but it was on his only catch (six yards) and he only managed two receptions for 18 yards in Cincy the previous week. He's cooled down markedly from his three game start. Naaman Roosevelt was brought up from the practice squad about a month back and now is the starting slot receiver. He turned in five catches for 41 yards and had seven targets in the Eagles game so his production is taking a definite swing up. Worth a watch or even a grab to see if he becomes what Nelson was until a few weeks ago.

The Giants have been weaker against wide receivers and allowed four different receivers to top 90 yards against them and five had scored. Steve Johnson should get back to scoring again after a two week gap but the new dynamic between Roosevelt and Nelson makes that risky to rely on. I am awarding the score to Roosevelt since he's similar to others with success against the Giants (Danario Alexander, Doug Baldwin, Ben Obomanu) but the risk is very high to rely on. Consider him a placeholder and a watch this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Those holding much less starting Scott Chandler are feeling the pinch of what happens when he does not score. These last two weeks have seen him with 2-8 and 1-4 and that really hurts. Chandler is a red zone target but not worth a fantasy start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 9 4 30 17 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 13 20 24 6 9 27


New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @WAS 14-28 10 @SF -
2 STL 28-16 11 PHI -
3 @PHI 29-16 12 @NO -
4 @ARI 31-27 13 GB -
5 SEA 25-36 14 @DAL -
6 BUF - 15 WAS -
7 Bye - 16 @NYJ -
8 MIA - 17 DAL -
9 @NE - - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 310,2
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 80,1 30 -
TE Jake Ballard - 20 -
WR Victor Cruz - 90,1 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 120,1 -
WR Mario Manningham - 50 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Seahawks really hurts and more than just dropping to 3-2. The Giants were on a three game winning streak and had won in Philly but hosting the Seahawks should have been a slam dunk. Instead it became a mistake filled sloppy game that ended with Manning throwing an interception that was returned for a 96-yard touchdown with a 1:25 left to play. And then he threw another one before the could end. This will be the problem he must correct this week because the Bills are very good at interceptions.

QUARTERBACK: He lost the game but at least Eli Manning had a great fantasy showing with 420 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks. He's been on a roll since week two and thrown for 11 touchdowns over four games with never less than two and his yardage has been climbing every week.

The Bills secondary has been rather accommodating to most opponents with their last four all tossing at least for 298 yards or more and most for multiple scores. Manning should post good numbers in this matchup with at least two passing scores. The question is how many interceptions.

RUNNING BACKS: Brandon Jacobs was out last week because of a mild MCL sprain but never practiced and I will count him out again until there are positive practice reports on him. Ahmad Bradshaw had trouble against the Seahawks but they have a better run defense and Bradshaw could not get on track. This week will be better at least marginally. The Bills are great statistically against the run because it has been rare for opponents to get more than 10 or so carries from their primary back thanks to a shootout that turns to passing.

But the Bills are allowing 5.0 yards per carry and are on the road this week as well. LeSean McCoy (11-80, TD) and Cedric Benson (19-104) were the two most recent primary backs and both were successful. This should be a better game for Bradshaw.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Hakeem Nicks flopped in Philly in week three but has been golden in all other games with a touchdown or 100 yards or both. He's even been overshadowed the last three games by Victor Cruz the newest slot receiving darling of fantasy who has merely turned in games of 3-110, 2 TD, 6-98 and 8-161, TD to richly reward the free agent hounds. Mario Manningham is stuck around 50 yards and no scores each week. Cruz has really come on to make this passing attack better.

The Bills are weak against wideouts who have scored five times on them and had each opponent since week two feature a 100+ yard receiver when they play. Welker had 16-217 and two scores to set a team record. Figure on Nicks a must start this week and no reason to expect any big cooling off for Cruz here.

TIGHT ENDS: Jake Ballard has scored in each of the last two games and had 33 and 72 yards respectively though on three catches in each. He is still supposed to be the blocking tight end but Travis Beckum has done almost nothing as the primary tight end. The Bills are weak against the tight end as well but hard to see Ballard pulling the hat trick when he has done so little else up to this point.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 8 12 6 18 31 7
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 30 25 27 20 6 1

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t