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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: CLE 17, OAK 30

Players to Watch: Greg Little

The 2-2 Browns come off their bye for only their second road game of the year. The Raiders are 3-2 thanks to the upset over Houston and this may be their easiest game so far. The Browns rarely travel that well and the Raiders no doubt dedicate the game to Al Davis.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 17-27 10 STL -
2 @IND 27-19 11 JAC -
3 MIA 17-16 12 @CIN -
4 TEN 13-31 13 BAL -
5 Bye - 14 @PIT -
6 @OAK - 15 @ARI -
7 SEA - 16 @BAL -
8 @SF - 17 PIT -
9 @HOU -      
Browns Report | Statistics | Roster
CLEVELAND at OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Colt McCoy - - 230,1
RB Peyton Hillis 70,1 40 -
TE Ben Watson - 30 -
TE Evan Moore - 20 -
WR Mohamed Massaquoi - 50 -
WR Brian Robiskie - 30 -
WR Greg Little - 40,1 -
PK Phil Dawson 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: Just when the Browns were coming off wins over the Colts and Dolphins and feeling good about themselves, along came the Titans to smite them. The bye week helped heal Peyton Hillis' strep throat but not his underlying contract dispute. The next six weeks the Browns enjoy one of the lighter schedules but so far this offense has done nothing to improve and the defense was exposed in the last game.

QUARTERBACK: Colt McCoy has been mostly consistent with three games or right at 210 yards and a score or two. He passed for 350 yards and one touchdown when they hosted the Titans but otherwise, McCoy is very average and really the only question is if he will throw one score or two? On the plus side - he has not failed to score in any game.

The Raiders have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of their last four games but then again their opponents have been BUF, NE, NYJ and HOU. McCoy only had one score in the only other road game so expect a match for that and moderate yardage.

RUNNING BACKS: This is not the surprising year for Peyton Hillis so far and it is doubtful that things will get any better. He has scored in only one matchup and never topped 100 rushing yards. His role as a receiver helps since he gets four to six catches per game but he does little with them. In three games played, he has 15 receptions for 76 yards and a paltry 5.0 yard per catch average. Throw in the confidence that the Browns are getting with Montario Hardesty for relief and Hillis' outlook is not better than what he currently is.

He is angling for a big contract extension but he is not playing like he deserves big money. Last year he was up and down in yardage but almost always scored. Not so this season.

The Raiders are softer against running backs though and have allowed each opponent to score using one. This should be a decent game for Hillis in a matchup that should mainly be about the run anyway. Figure on decent overall yardage and a good shot at one touchdown.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is virtually no fantasy value here. Mohamed Massaquoi is the best but that only means 77 yards in a game at most and just one touchdown on the season. Massaquoi settles for two or three catches in almost every game. No other wideout has ever had more than 57 yards. The rookie Greg Little is start to make a small move up and now mans the slot. Before the bye he recorded six catches for 57 yards on the Titans. But there is just precious little going on in this unit.

Chances are decent for a score here but it could go anywhere. It tends to end up with the flanker or the slot guy so I'll award it to Little who is getting more action lately and coming on. The confidence is not that high since he has never scored before but he is as good a risk as any other on this team.

TIGHT ENDS: Ben Watson Is the lead receiver for the team with two touchdowns and a total of 16 catches for 173 yards. It's never worth more than a bye week cover but he has been fairly consistent with 40+ yards per week. Evan Moore started the season with a score in the first two games but has done nothing in the last two. He's even had a discussion with the coaching staff about his reduced role. The plan is that he becomes more involved but that's easier to say than to see.

The passing score could end up here as well but to either tight end. The Raiders are weaker against tight ends lately so both Watson and Moore have a chance for moderate yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 20 25 29 3 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 31 13 25 18 6


Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 23-20 10 @SD -
2 @BUF 35-38 11 @MIN -
3 NYJ 34-24 12 CHI -
4 NE 19-31 13 @MIA -
5 @HOU 25-20 14 @GB -
6 CLE - 15 DET -
7 KC - 16 @KC -
8 Bye - 17 SD -
9 DEN -      
Raiders Report | Statistics | Roster
OAKLAND vs CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell - - 190,1
RB Darren McFadden 130,2 20 -
TE Kevin Boss - 30,1 -
WR Jacoby Ford - 30 -
WR Denarius Moore - 30 -
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey - 50 -
PK Sebastian Janikowski 3 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The win in Houston keeps the Raiders just one game behind the Chargers for the AFC West lead and the next two games - home against the Browns and Chiefs - should end up with a 5-2 record at the bye. The Raiders also mourn the passing of Al Davis that should definitely be a part of this home game and help them to be extra motivated to win.

QUARTERBACK: Jason Campbell has been very inconsistent this year but it is a good thing. Last season he was mediocre every week and now he is showing up with decent games every few weeks or so. Knowing when it will happen is tough but it usually coincides with a worse game by Darren McFadden that should not be a problem in this matchup.

The Browns have a very good secondary though shutdown corner Joe Haden may not play and that lowers the bar considerably. The best bet here is that Campbell only has an average game because that is all he needs to do.

RUNNING BACKS: While Darren McFadden has been up and down as a runner, he has always delivered with total yards until last week when the Texans specifically targeted him to stop and help him to a season low 51 rush yards and 17 yards on two receptions. McFadden has been good for 110+ total yards every other week.

The Browns are weak against the run and have allowed two players to top 100 rush yards against them (Cedric Benson and Chris Johnson). The Browns have not yet faced a good running back either so expect a very nice showing from McFadden in this home game dedicated to Al Davis.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There has occasionally been fantasy value here but it is too hard to predict and highly inconsistent. Denarius Moore has two scores to lead the group but was held without a catch last week and aside from his one game in Buffalo has really done little. They even stopped using him as a runner. Chaz Schilens had a touchdown last week but only two catches for 25 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey has been a two week surprise with 4-115 against the Pats and then 7-99 and a touchdown in Houston but he only five catches for 49 yard over the first three weeks.

The passing yardage is likely to be low this week and the likelihood any wideout can salvage his fantasy value with a score is far too risky to consider. Even if CB Haden does play, no way of being certain who he shuts down since it is not that hard anyway.

TIGHT ENDS: Kevin Boss has stepped up in the last two weeks (from literally nothing) to turn in 2-36 and 4-78 but then was again held without a catch last week. The reason that is bad is that the Browns are weak against tight ends - over four games they have allowed four touchdowns to the position. Even Dallas Clark scored on them. This is a good spot for a score by Boss but the confidence has to be low.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 19 1 15 31 9 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 10 17 4 29 31 9

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

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