The Huddle on Facebook Facebook   The Huddle on Twitter Twitter   The Huddle Mobile Mobile Welcome, Guest. You are not logged in.JOINHELP
HOME FANTASY DRAFT KIT IN SEASON ARTICLES NEWS STATS FORUMS TEAMS PLAYERS NFL DRAFT NFL ABOUT myHuddle

FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: HOU 10, BAL 31

Update: The Texans have traded for Derrick Mason and I will update on Friday about this move. The impact is minimal with the 37 year old Mason.

Update #2: Lee Evans has been ruled out again this week so Torrey Smith will take his place in this attractive matchup.

The Texans were crusing along at 3-1 but then lost Andre Johnson for a few weeks, lost LB Mario Williams for the season and literally threw away a win against the Raiders. That makes visiting Baltimore just that much less enticing though the crab cakes alone are worth the trip. The Ravens come off their bye rested and ready to resume their 30+ ways. For Texans fans, this is called the short straw.

The Ravens won 34-28 in Houston last year.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 34-7 10 @TB -
2 @MIA 23-13 11 Bye -
3 @NO 33-40 12 @JAC -
4 PIT 17-10 13 ATL -
5 OAK 20-25 14 @CIN -
6 @BAL - 15 CAR -
7 @TEN - 16 @IND -
8 JAC - 17 TEN -
9 CLE -      
Texans Report | Statistics | Roster
HOUSTON at BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub - - 220,1
RB Arian Foster 50 20 -
TE Owen Daniels - 60 -
TE Joel Dreesen - 40 -
WR Kevin Walter - 60,1 -
WR Jacoby Jones - 30 -
PK Neil Rackers 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The loss to the Raiders may have just been submitting to fate a little early but it was a winnable game and ruined a nice start to the season. Now the Texans have to play @BAL and @TEN for two very tough matchups without all hands on deck. The loss of Mario Williams especially hurts the defense that was playing better this year. Facing the Jaguars and Browns at home should be wins but then again - so should have the Raiders. A promising season look periously close to taking a familiar nose-dive.

QUARTERBACK: He may have lost, but at least Matt Schaub comes off his best game of the year when he passed for 416 yards and two scores on the Raiders with two interceptions. But he also ended up with a bruised thigh and a sore shoulder in that game and he may be limited in practices this week but is still expected to play. It was encouraging too that his big passing game came without Andre Johnson in the lineup. More relevant to this game, Schaub had three games with 230 yards or less.

Schaub passed for 393 yards and three scores in Baltimore last year.

But for 2011, the Ravens have not allowed more than one passing touchdown per opposing quarterback and just three total on the season. Schaub may get decent yardage if only in trash time but that is hard to rely on and the Ravens have averaged allowing only 238 yards. And this time they are at home, rested and the Texans are banged up.

RUNNING BACKS: Just when Arian Foster seemed back on track with 155 yards and a score in Pittsburgh, he faced the Raiders. What should have been a softer defense only allowed him 68 yards on 22 carries and it is evident that without Andre Johnson, the defenses make Foster job #1. And for those who took the Foster plunge, the pain may continue for another game or two.

Foster gained 100 yards on 20 carries in Baltimore last season.

The Ravens have been otustanding against the run in 2011 allowing just one rushing score in their only loss and holding opposing runners to marginal yardage. No runner has gained more than 45 yards in Baltimore. The hope is that Foster can turn in some receiving yardage but even that has been hard to come by with the Ravens.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Kevin Walter was the only wideout with any production last week when Andre Johnson was out. Walter scored once on his five catches for 81 yards while no other wideout had more than one catch for nine yards. Jacoby Jones was particularly disappointing since he had the one catch for nine yards but that was after 11 passes were thrown to him. It was not for a lack of effort to get the ball to him. So far - there is just no replacing Johnson. Jones had a great chance to do something and came up empty.

Johnson gained 140 yards and two scores on nine catches in Baltimore. No other wideout had more than 57 yards in that game.

What little success anyone had on the Ravens was with wide receivers. But outside of Mike Wallace and Kenny Britt, wideouts struggle as well. I am crediting Walter with a score but it may not happen. He is the only non-Johnson to score for the Texans but the Ravens are going to be ready.

TIGHT ENDS: This is where all the action went last week. Owen Daniels turned in a season best seven catches for 89 yards and Joel Dreesen had a career best 112 yards on five receptions with one touchdown on the Raiders. No doubt that they both are valuable outlets for Schaub this week as well. Dreesen is interesting since his success signals a offensive game planning change with two tight ends.

Daniels turned in five catches for 91 yards against the Ravens last year.

The Ravens have been great against tight ends so far and none have scored on them or had more than 42 yards in a game. That makes Daniels a more marginal play than would seem though the Ravens could end up happy to take away the run and the wideouts and let the tight ends go like the Raiders did.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 12 3 25 4 4 10
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 4 1 16 2 1 24


Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA -
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN -
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF -
4 NYJ 34-17 13 @CLE -
5 Bye - 14 IND -
6 HOU - 15 @SD -
7 @JAC - 16 CLE -
8 ARI - 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT -   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 230,2
RB Ray Rice 90,1 50,1 -
TE Ed Dickson - 40 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 60,1 -
WR Lee Evans - 40 -
WR Torrey Smith - 70 -
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Ravens come off their bye week with a 3-1 record and have looked scary good outside of the one loss in Tennessee that maybe was a trap game of sorts. The Ravens may be favored in every game the rest of the way and barring any significant injuries should wrap up the North.

Have to love the chance of a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: So far Joe Flacco has been feast or famine. He passed for three touchdowns against the Steelers and Rams but In Tennessee and against the Jets he only totaled one score and never had more than 200 passing yards. And it is not really a road/home thing or a tough/easy game situation either. It isn't really related to what the rushing effort produces either. That makes is very hard to nail down an accurate prediction on just what Flacco might do.

Flacco passed for 235 yards and two scores on the Texans in 2010.

The Texans lost Mario Williams which will make them more susceptible to the run and the Ravens should be able to handle this one without too much trouble. Figure on Flacco only as a moderate play.

RUNNING BACKS: Ray Rice has proven to be one of the very best first round draft picks last summer since he has scored four times and while his rushing totals have topped 100 yards only once, he has been a lock to turn in around 120 total yards or more. His dual role as a receiver makes him relevant in every game.

Rice gained 54 yards on 19 carries and added 66 yards on eight receptions on the Texans last year.

The Texans have not faced any top runner yet thought they allowed Daniel Thomas to debut with 107 yards. The Saints had two rushing touchdowns in the other road game for the Texans. Rice is a must start and should have a nice game here against a injury-weakened defense. If the game goes well, Ricky Williams could make a showing and turn in some decent stats as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Lee Evans has been out since week two with a bad ankle but likely plays this week. That will shove Torrey Smith back down the depth chart to #3 if it happens though even Evans was not willing to say for sure he would play. Evans was a nonfactor in those first two games with no catches against the Steelers and only 45 yards in Tenneessee. Smith had his one monster breakout game against the Rams but had one catch for one yard the next Sunday. Even Anquan Boldin has only offered marginal fantasy value this year with a high game of only 74 yards and a low of just 28. Boldin only scored once this season.

The Texans have been much weaker against wide receivers and have allowed six touchdowns to the position though only one had over 100 yards (Reggie Wayne). The one score I like for the wideouts almost has to end up with Boldin but it is no lock and the Ravens are not going to need a big game from any of these players to win the game.

TIGHT ENDS: Though the wideouts are lagging lately, at least Ed Dickson is picking up steam. He has caught nine passes for 96 yards over the last two games played and also scored in the opener. He's no elite receiver but is getting better and averages 45 yards per game. The Texans have only met one decent tight end and Jimmy Graham tore them up but Dickson is more likely for a moderate game here. If Boldin doesn't catch the score, Dickson is the second most likely.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 17 5 24 15 5 1
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 8 10 21 3 8 5

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t