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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: IND 16, CIN 27

Players to Watch: Delone Carter, Donald Brown

Update: Joseph Addai was listed as questionable but never practiced this week and is not expected to play.

When was the last time the Colts and Bengals played and it was the Colts who were 0-5? Ever? Close still doesn't count for the Colts who just lost Addai for a few games. The Bengals are 3-2 and shockingly just a better team than the Colts.

The Colts won 23--17 when the Bengals visited in 2010.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC -
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT 20-23 12 CAR -
4 @TB 17-24 13 @NE -
5 KC 24-28 14 @BAL -
6 @CIN - 15 TEN -
7 @NO - 16 HOU -
8 @TEN - 17 @JAC -
9 ATL -      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Curtis Painter - - 190,1
RB Delone Carter 30 10 -
RB Donald Brown 40 - -
TE Dallas Clark - 20 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 60 -
WR Austin Collie - 40,1 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 60 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The loss of Joseph Addai makes it just that much worse for the Colts if only because he was a great pass blocker. Curtis Painter is learning the ropes and not playing too badly but the bottom line to the entire team is that they are just not good enough. Without Peyton Manning there as the superglue, the parts are just parts and they don't work as well.

QUARTERBACK: Curtis Painter has basically turned in the exact same game twice now - right at 280 passing yards with two scores and most of the receptions by Pierre Garcon if only because the defenses still do not believe he is a threat. Painter has not thrown an interception or done much with either Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark.

This week goes against a defense that has never allowed more than 221 passing yards and only one touchdown over the last three games. I'll credit Painter with one touchdown pass but even that is hard to justify.

RUNNING BACKS: To make a bad thing worse - a theme for this year for the Colts - Joseph Addai will miss multiple weeks because of a hamstring strain and yet there is no backup to grab and benefit. Delone Carter had a score last week on his 12 carries for 22 yards but Donald Brownwas a better runner with 38 yards on eight runs. There is hardly enough to for one back and splitting the load waters down a marginal situation already.

The Bengals have a good rushing defense too. At home this week against a weaker Colts team, they should hold down the yardage as they did for Frank Gore (17-42) and Fred Jackson (17-66, TD) as the only two previous visitors to Cincy. Right when you need bye week help, Addai is out and leaves behind mediocrity divided by two.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The only player on the team that has profited with Painter under center has been Pierre Garcon with back to back games of 2-146 and 5-125 with two touchdowns in each. There has only been two other scoring passes all year. Reggie Wayne has been cranking out the scoreless 60 yard efforts since the opener and Austin Collie is the little used slot receiver of old.

The Bengals have been outstanding against starting wideouts who have never caught a score on them or had much yardage. The only players with a touchdown were Jason Hill and Eric Decker playing from the slot. I'll give Collie the score since the other two receivers seem far less likely - assuming anyone has watched game film on Garcon from the last two weeks. But no receiver here is an attractive start and Wayne is only ever good for moderate yardage.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark is a nonfactor. He had one catch for seven yards last week and only three receptions for 46 yards in the Buccaneer loss. Hard to believe this was once the #1 tight end in the NFL. He's not even worth holding onto rosters anymore.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 29 31 11 25 22 21
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 3 14 3 12 14 12


Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 27-17 10 PIT -
2 @DEN 22-24 11 @BAL -
3 SF 8-13 12 CLE -
4 BUF 23-20 13 @PIT -
5 @JAC 30-20 14 HOU -
6 IND - 15 @STL -
7 Bye - 16 ARI -
8 @SEA - 17 BAL -
9 @TEN -      
Bengals Report | Statistics | Roster
CINCINNATI vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton - - 200,2
RB Cedric Benson 110,1 - -
TE Jermaine Gresham - 30,1 -
WR A.J. Green - 110,1 -
WR Jerome Simpson - 40 -
WR Andre Caldwell - 30 -
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bengals have strung together two nice wins - taking down the otherwise unbeaten Bills and then a nice win on the road in Jacksonville. A win here sends them 4-2 into the bye which has to exceed all expectations for a team with a rookie quarterback and primary wide receiver. The schedule is about to get brutal starting in week nine with @TEN, PIT, @BAL, CLE and @PIT so consider moving A.J. Green or Benson by week eight or you will be stuck with them during a long rough patch.

QUARTERBACK: There have been inconsistencies that were expected from Andy Dalton but the rookie has generally impressed with six touchdowns on the season and five interceptions. He passed for as much as 332 yards but as low as 157. More importantly, he has shown chemistry with A.J. Green from the start for a hook-up that should last for many years.

The Colts have always allowed at least one passing touchdown and decent yardage to those who want it. But the rushing defense is weak as well and the Bengals are sure to exploit that first and not need to get into any shootout here. Look for just pedestrian numbers from Dalton this week.

RUNNING BACKS: It appears that Cedric Benson has bought himself at least one more week of freedom though there is an equal chance he will skip on the suspension entirely. That is a good sign for Benson who has not scored since week one and had mostly moderate rushing totals. He gained 104 yards on 19 runs against the Bills but only had 53 yards on 24 runs in Jacksonville. This week should be a great chance for both a score - the Colts have already allowed five touchdowns to the position already - and a healthy yardage total since four teams have rolled up well over 100 yards on the Colts.

This is a good spot to start Benson who still suffers from having no role as a receiver. This could be the best rushing total of all the remaining games for him so consider maybe selling him high before that brutal stretch between week nine and 13.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is A.J. Green and then everybody else. Maybe that is nobody else. Green has only had one bad game when the 49ers punked them but otherwise always has either 100 yards or a touchdown or both. For a rookie on a supposedly bad team he has been outstanding and like headed for Rookie of the Year were it not for Cam Newton. He already has three games with 90 or more yards. Andre Caldwell barely breaks 20 yards per week and Jerome Simpson had one good game before all his checks had to be signed over to pay for his lawyers. Green is king here and will be for a long time.

The Colts defense has been getting worse and just gave up four scores to the Chiefs wide receivers. At that was in Indy. Expect a nice game here by Green against a team that was recently burned by Dwayne Bowe (7-128, 2 TD) and Mike Wallace (5-144, TD).

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham has been decent enough with yardage with around 42 yards per game but he has scored three times including the last two matchups. He's no major fantasy stud but his touchdowns are making him a consistent scorer and worthy of a start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 23 27 14 16 12 14
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 20 27 28 7 19 17

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

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