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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: MIA 13, NYJ 31

Players to Watch: Matt Moore, Jeremy Kerley

Update: The Jets announced late Wednesday that Mason had been traded to the Texans in exchange for a conditional seventh round pick which roughly means "here, just take him". I will be updating about this on Friday though Mason's outlook would be minimal at best this weekend. Jeremy Kerley will step into the #3 spot.

Update #2 - Daniel Thomas was limited on Friday again because of his hamstring but this is a MNF game so he'll have a practice tomorrow. He is expected to play this week barring any setback but how much and how well will depend on where he is at on Monday. That makes him a risk to use unless you have Reggie Bush as well. I am not changing his projections at this time but be aware he needs to practice well Saturday and make it through pregame on Monday night.

Update #3 - Thomas was still limited in practice on Saturday and remains questionable to play. He still has two days before he plays on Monday night but replying on him will be a risk that you cannot correct if anything happens.

The Fins come off their bye with a new quarterback and even less hope of getting their first win of the season. The Jets are on their own three game losing streak and are not likely to show any mercy here. If the Jets dropped this one, Rex Ryan's head will explode. The worse fact is that this ended up as the Monday Night Game.

These teams traded road wins in 2010. The Fins won 10-6 in New York last year.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS -
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF -
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL -
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK -
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ - 15 @BUF -
7 DEN - 16 @NE -
8 @NYG - 17 NYJ -
9 @KC -      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 170
RB Reggie Bush 30 10 -
RB Daniel Thomas 70,1 20 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 50 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 40 -
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Bad enough to have no wins but now losing the starting quarterback and turning to Matt Moore is going to make things even tougher. Next week hosting the Broncos may be the first win but facing the Jets in New York should prove to be just another tick in the "L" column.

QUARTERBACK: The Dolphins have placed Chad Henne on injured reserve and brought on Sage Rosenfels as the new #2 quarterback. Matt Moore lost the quarterback competition in the summer but is installed as the starter now. Moore comes over from Carolina where he started a handful of games in his three seasons there. Starting out on the road to play the Jets is maybe not where you want to begin your new career. Moore played almost the entire Charger game and ended with only 167 yards and no scores with one interception.

Considering that the Jets have only allowed three passing touchdowns this season, expect a very bad first outing for Moore.

RUNNING BACKS: When Daniel Thomas plays, he has been very productive. He gained 107 yards against the Texans and then 122 total yards and a score in Cleveland. But he was out yet again with a bad hamstring in week four. Coming back from the bye, Thomas says he feel fine but how long that lasts remains to be seen.

Reggie Bush had a decent season opener with 94 total yards and a score with nine receptions but he's done nearly nothing since. Even without Thomas in San Diego, Bush only gained 50 yards on 13 runs and added 15 yards on two catches.

The Jets defense has been weak against the run and allowed seven rushing touchdowns this year. All but one came in road games though and the Jets at home are already going to not worry about the pass. Thomas is still a decent start and the best hope for a touchdown though. He's worth a start if only because he had 110+ total yards in his first two games.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon Marshall started the year well with 139 yards against the Patriots and scored once on his six receptions for 79 yards when the Texans showed up. He's been locked around 50 yards in the last two weeks but those were road games and the Pats and Texans games were at home like this week. Of course Chad Henne is out and that throws more risk and unknowns on to this Sunday. No other wideout has scored outside of Brian Hartline in week one and he and Davone Bess have just been good for barely moderate yards and catches this year.

TIGHT ENDS: Absolutely no fantasy value so far. Only two catches over the last three games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 21 17 17 30 13 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 2 28 7 10 20 31


New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE -
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN -
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA - 15 @PHI -
7 SD - 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF -      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 200,2
RB Shonn Greene 70,1 10 -
TE Dustin Keller - 10 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 50,1 -
WR Derrick Mason - 20 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 80,1 -
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 4 XP -

Pregame Notes: A three game losing streak is bad enough but the Jets lost each one by at least ten points. Then again, those were the only road games and the previous two homestand were the only wins. Center Nick Mangold is back and has helped the rushing effort. This week is like a little oasis in the middle of a brutal schedule. The Jets could not have timed their Monday night game any better with the Fins 0-4 and getting worse.

I like a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez may have lost the last three games but he's been consistent with two scores in four of the five games this year. He has been wildly erratic in yardage depending on the success of the rushing game that has been largely absent until last week. His production matches up well with the Fins who have allowed nine scores over four games played and have been worse on the road.

The Jets want to run the ball more but even with that Sanchez passed for two scores. This is Monday Night and Sanchez should at least be good for the two touchdowns he always gets and that the Fins always give.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene comes off a great game if you only compare it to what he has done in the other four weeks. Greene rushed for 83 yards on 21 carries and scored once in New England but that still was only a 4.0 YPC and overall he has just 240 yards on 72 runs for a 3.3 YPC for the season. Fortunately he is at home this week and should get a high number of carries against a weak Miami team. He has a good shot at one touchdown and moderate yardage. He still has not gained more than nine yards on any run this year.

LaDainian Tomlinson has been phased out with just nine touches over the last two games combined and nearly no yardage for it. He has become a nonfactor and the stated intent to do more "ground-n-pound" means Tomlinson will end his career with an inaudible whimper.

WIDE RECEIVERS:Santonio Holmes scored last week to give him two touchdowns on the season and while his yardage has been bad on the road, he is back at home where he plays better. Plaxico Burress has not scored since week two but has been turning in around 40 yards per week. He's just good for the occasional first down and end zone catch. Derrick Mason has all but been removed from the game plan while the rookie Jeremy Kerley is starting to get some playing time. Kerley scored his first NFL touchdown last week and is taking over Mason's place. He could end up supplanting Mason sooner than later.

The Dolphins have been decent against the position but have allowed six scores and four players to log 90+ yards. This could see both Burress and Holmes score with moderate yardage..

TIGHT ENDS: The return to the run has taken a very productive Dustin Keller and made him into another blocker. Pending a change back to passing more, Keller has minimal fantasy value and is not worth a start. The Fins have been weaker against tight ends but that is not the way the offense works here anymore.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 16 21 22 13 18 5
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 27 8 25 31 30 18

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

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