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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: MIN 13, CHI 23

Update: Percy Harvin is questionable because of his ribs and was limited in practices other than Thursday when he was held out. They are hopeful that he will be able to play but I am lowering his projections as he won't be 100% and a receiver with bad ribs runs a high chance of a hit that knocks him out of the game.

The Vikings got that elusive first win when the Cards showed up last Sunday and now hit the road where they could not even beat the Chiefs. The Bears are on a shorter week after their Monday night loss to the Lions but remain at home and probably in a pretty foul mood. Being 2-3 in a division with two 5-0 teams makes winning a division pretty tough.

The Bears swept the Vikings last season, winning 27-13 in Chicago and later 40-14 in the road meeting.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @SD 17-24 10 @GB -
2 TB 20-24 11 OAK -
3 DET 23-26 12 @ATL -
4 @KC 17-22 13 DEN -
5 ARI 34-10 14 @DET -
6 @CHI - 15 NO -
7 GB - 16 @WAS -
8 @CAR - 17 CHI -
9 Bye -      
Vikings Report | Statistics | Roster
MINNESOTA at CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Donovan McNabb - - 180,1
RB Adrian Peterson 80 10 -
TE Vishante Shiancoe - 20 -
WR Bernard Berrian - 20 -
WR Michael Jenkins - 40,1 -
WR Percy Harvin 20 40 -
PK Ryan Longwell 2 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: Adrian Peterson saved the day with his three rushing touchdowns in the first quarter of the Cardinals matchup while the passing game offers no help and little hope. These next two games - @CHI and GB will cement this as a losing season that has little left to complete other than getting a great draft pick for next season. The Vikings still have Christian Ponder holding a clipboard but there is no reason to get him beaten up and shell-shocked in a lost season.

QUARTERBACK: Five games and four touchdowns are enough reason for the losses. Donovan McNabb has not turned the ball over other than just two interceptions but he's rarely able to consistently move the team via the pass let alone score much. He's topped out at 228 yards and that may be true for all 17 weeks. McNabb did run in a score against the Cardinals but only because Peterson already had three touchdowns.

The Bears secondary have given up major yards and scores but have been ravaged by Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford. This is Donovan McNabb. Anything more than one touchdown will be a big news story.

RUNNING BACKS: Last week was precisely why Adrian Peterson is always a top draft pick. He gained 122 yards on 29 runs and also scored three touchdowns in the first quarter. That gives him six scores on the year and exactly zero in any road game. In fact he has not broken 100 rushing yards on the road either. With nothing else to defend, defenses load up against him.

Peterson ran for only 51 yards on 17 carries in Chicago last year. That could happen again since the Bears still have not allowed any running back to rush in a touchdown though they have been softer than usual. The Bears are allowing 5.2 yards per carry against them. Peterson is a must play but should have a lesser game here and likely not score. With no passing game to worry about, they will load the line against the Vikes unlike when they played CAR, GB, NO or ATL.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This motley crew has only scored three times this year and never had more than 88 yards in any game. On the road they have never gained more than 42 receiving yards though all three touchdowns came in away venues. There is no fantasy value here this week though I like one of them to catch a touchdown. It could go anywhere but so far Michael Jenkins has been the main red zone option. Devin Aromashodu has been productive but remains behind Berrian for reasons hard to fathom.

Bernard Berrian was benched last week for missing team meetings but will start again and may even catch two passes for the first time this season. Percy Harvin is the only receiver with the potential to be fantasy relevant but even that is too inconsistent to rely on and he still has not scored this year.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 31 6 26 22 16 12
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 26 19 14 32 28 16


Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 30-12 10 DET -
2 @NO 13-30 11 SD -
3 GB 17-27 12 @OAK -
4 CAR 34-29 13 KC -
5 @DET 13-24 14 @DEN -
6 MIN - 15 SEA -
7 @TB - 16 @GB -
8 Bye - 17 @MIN -
9 @PHI -      
Bears Report | Statistics | Roster
CHICAGO vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler - - 250,2
RB Matt Forte 50 80,1 -
WR Roy Williams - 20 -
WR Devin Hester - 30 -
WR Dane Sanzenbacher - 40 -
WR Johnny Knox - 60 -
PK Robbie Gould 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: Last week was the passing of the NFC North torch to the Lions and Packers as the Bears fell to only 2-3 but the season is hardly over and the Bears have several soft spots on their slate such as this week. Matt Forte may be woefully underpaid but waiting until the end of the season is just costing the Bears more money with every passing week. This team smacks of an offensive overhaul in the offseason but Forte would always remain a central focus regardless. He's motivated and productive - not something many others can say on the offense.

QUARTERBACK: The mere fact that Jay Cutler is still standing and walking around should eliminate any question about his toughness. Cutler gets beat like Mike Tyson just caught him stealing from his mother. Cutler is hit nearly on every play. His 18 sacks already do not tell the story of how many times he gets hit in Mike Martz's offense known to kill quarterbacks. His production is all over the map but never more than two scores.

Cutler passed for 237 yards and three touchdowns on the visiting Vikes last year.

The Vikings are good against the run but on the road. Figure on Cutler likely throwing for two scores and decent yardage even if it mostly just ends up with Forte anyway.

RUNNING BACKS: As mentioned, Matt Forte is working for a new contract and it is going to be hard to argue he is not worth as mush as any other player on the team. He currently leads the league with 157 total yards per game and has rushed for 321 yards over just the last two games. He also is not only the leading receiver for the team, but his 26 catches are more than double that of anyone else. All that for only $600,000 per season.

Forte gained 69 yards on 21 carries but only had one catch for nine yards on the Vikings last year.

The Vikings are good against the run though less so on the road. Expect that Forte will gain more yards as a receiver than as a runner but he has a good chance for one running score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is the most un-Martz like wide receivers ever. Through five games, only two touchdowns and both by Dane Sanzenbacher who is a small, undrafted rookie and apparently the only one the defense does not cover. Sanzenbacher led the receivers in the Lions game with six catches for 60 yards. Granted no one is winning their league with Sanzenbacher, but he is about as good as it gets. This is a collection of five players that manage to never have fantasy value.

Knox turned in 90 yards on five catches on the visiting Vikes in 2010 while Devin Hester (4-38) scored once.

I actually like one score to this group as the Vikings secondary is nothing special but there are none worth recommending since there is no consistency beyond always being bad.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Davis caught a touchdown last week and now has two on the year but apparently has games with no catches every other week. This is an odd week so no bothering with them. How sad is it when a Martz offense has throw three touchdowns to the tight ends who combined for only nine catches for 95 yards over five games. And yet only two to the wideouts and that is an undrafted little guy? Amazing.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 27 11 23 21 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 15 4 15 9 29 2

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t