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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG * HOU at BAL NO at TB * MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL * IND at CIN * PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
*Updated * DAL at NE * MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 24, WAS 23

Players to Watch: Ryan Torain

Update: Tim HIghtower, Chris Cooley and Anthony Armstrong are all questionable, are all expected to play and are all expected to do little for your fantasy team. Hightower is easily the best of the three though and his shoulder is good enough that he may actually start but share with Ryan Torain. I still like the projections for all three.

The Eagles are beyond concerned, worried and desperate and now are into "save my job" mode from kicker to coaches. At 1-4 they are just about out of the running without ever actually having been in the running. Four losses in a row and a bye week on the other side of this game. Consider this game as extremely important to the Eagles. The Redskins come off their bye and are technically atop the NFC East at 3-1 and yet have minimal scoring. Coin flip game maybe but the Eagles are bound to catch a break eventually and the Skins are a very familiar opponent.

The Eagles won in Washington 59-28 but earlier lost 12-17 in the home game against the Redskins.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @STL 31-13 10 ARI -
2 @ATL 31-35 11 @NYG -
3 NYG 16-29 12 NE -
4 SF 23-24 13 @SEA -
5 @BUF 24-31 14 @MIA -
6 @WAS - 15 NYJ -
7 Bye - 16 @DAL -
8 DAL - 17 WAS -
9 CHI -      
Eagles Report | Statistics | Roster
PHILADELPHIA at WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 - 250,2
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 30,1 -
TE Brent Celek - 10 -
WR DeSean Jackson - 90,1 -
WR Jason Avant - 50 -
WR Jeremy Maclin - 60 -
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: It has been going all wrong but HC Andy Reid said he would stay the course with DC Juan Castillo despite the four game losing streak that has allowed about 30 points per game. Michael Vick threw four interceptions last week. Even the kicker Alex Henery is missing field goals. Turnovers, dropped passes. The list of what went wrong is not only long and comprehensive, but makes a list of what went right is even harder to do. The Eagles are reeling and heading to their bye. A win here and then three straight home games could do much to make the season not a lost cause already.

QUARTERBACK: In fantasy terms, Michael Vick has still been valuable with two scores in all but one game and decent rush yards thrown in every week. But Vick has not been scoring like he did in 2010 and even has yet to rush in a touchdown after scoring nine times via the run last year. He is actually scoring more as a passer but the lack of rushing scores takes away the best part of his performance. Vick has been beyond frustrated at the losing and now coming off a four interception effort in Buffalo is no help. He set the all-time record for career rushing yardage in the Bills game but it was hardly a time to celebrate.

Vick passed for 333 yards and four touchdowns in Washington last year and added 80 yards and two more scores on eight runs. It was the biggest game of his career.

The Skins have been very good on defense this year, holding a banged-up Tony Romo to no scores and 255 yards. But Kevin Kolb managed 251 yards and two scores in the last home game so the Eagles have a chance for passing success. The Redskins have only intercepted three passes over four games and turnovers are the killer for the Eagles.

RUNNING BACKS: Other than the upset by the 49ers, LeSean McCoy has maintained over 100 total yards per week and has scored at least once in every game. He rarely gets rested for more than a couple of carries and being a dual threat helps ensure his value. McCoy already has five rushing touchdowns and two more as a receiver.

Jerome Harrison rushed for 109 yards and a score while LeSean McCoy recorded 94 total yards and one touchdown in Washington last season.

The Skins have statistically been good against the run but none of their opponents have been as good as McCoy and even Beanie Wells had 93 yards and a score in Washington. McCoy is a must start and should have at least decent yardage thanks to being a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The wideouts have been productive though along the way have dropped passes and contributed to the interceptions. Jeremy Maclin lost a fumble to secure the loss to the 49ers. But last week he and DeSean Jackson both scored and had good yardage. Jason Avant lost the fumble last week after a career best 139 yards on nine receptions. But he has yet to score. The starters here can get the job done but just haven't this year. There should be more success this time against a secondary that has not faced many decent receivers and the few they have turned in nice games like Hakeem Nicks (7-122) and Larry Fitzgerald (7-133, TD). Nicks is a better risk than Maclin but both should have at least moderate yardage.

Jackson (2-98), Maclin (5-76) and Avant (4-79) all scored in Washington last year.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value and nearly no catches.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 5 7 4 26 15 15
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 6 9 9 11 12 10


Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NYG 28-14 10 @MIA -
2 ARI 22-21 11 DAL -
3 @DAL 16-18 12 @SEA -
4 @STL 17-10 13 NYJ -
5 Bye - 14 NE -
6 PHI - 15 @NYG -
7 @CAR - 16 MIN -
8 @BUF - 17 @PHI -
9 SF -      
Redskins Report | Statistics | Roster
WASHINGTON vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Rex Grossman - - 260,1
RB Ryan Torain 100,1 - -
RB Tim Hightower 30 30 -
TE Fred Davis - 70,1 -
TE Chris Cooley - 20 -
WR Santana Moss - 50 -
WR Anthony Armstrong - 20 -
WR Jabbar Gaffney - 50 -
PK Graham Gano 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Skins are looking good atop the NFC East but will have to prove they belong in the coming weeks. Starting out with home games against the Giants and Cardinals were wins though barely against Arizona. A trip to Dallas was a loss even though they were decimated by injury. And the win in St. Louis was against a winless team. The defense has played well though is still somewhat untested and the offense has been less than prolific. That won't cut it for the next four weeks.

QUARTERBACK: Rex Grossman has been on an odd four game decline in stats where he started out with 305 yards and two scores on the Giants and last was down to only 143 yards and one touchdown in St. Louis. The rushing game worked well in St. Louis and made a difference but Grossman has only thrown for two scores in a game when he is at home - like in this game.

The Skins passed for 295 yards and two scores on the visiting Eagles last year.

The Eagles are more open to being rushed on so chances are the Skins will be throwing less in this game. Only if the Eagles get a big lead would the Skins start to pass more but is is all but sure that the running backs are going to be called on more this week.

RUNNING BACKS: Take your pick, Wrong! Guess again? Now all three backs have seen success this year and that means guessing what happens each week in the backfield will be just that - a guess. Ryan Torain is the likely primary back coming off a game with 135 yards and a score on 19 carries in St. Louis in his first game of the year. But Torain is often injured and this is a Shanahan backfield. The HC even declined to name the starting tailback this week as if it matters or that he would stick to it anyway.

Tim Hightower only had eight runs for 24 yards in that Rams game and Roy Helu turned in 35 yards on his eight totes. All in all - probably going to be messy and always subject to change.

Keiland Williams was the only runner in the meeting last year and gained 89 yards and two scores on 16 carries while adding a third touchdown on his four catches for 50 yards on the Eagles.

The Eagles have been very bad against the run with every opponent gaining over 100 yards on them and scoring seven times with their running backs - three via the pass. But now who does that go to? Assuming that the Skins follow the great success of week four, I will distribute the yards and scores but it is always going to be a risk to rely on in a Shanahan offense.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There has been a good consistency with the two starters and reliability is always nice from a receiver. Jabbar Gaffney has just one score from the season opener but has been good for 54 to 62 yards in every game. Santana Moss has scored twice with all but one game producing 60 to 75 yards. Anthony Armstrong is just a traditional slot receiver with two small catches per week.

Moss only totaled 28 yards on three catches on the Eagles last year. He had no catches in the earlier meeting as well.

The Eagles have been very good against wideouts and the primary receivers for opponents have been held in check. Expect moderate yardage from both Moss and Gaffney but unlikely a big game. This will be more about rushing and shorter passing since the Eagles have not given up the deep stuff.

TIGHT ENDS: Chris Cooley has lost an obvious step that he could ill afford to lose and only has seven catches for 66 yards on the season including one game with no catches. Fred Davis has supplanted him as the primary receiving tight end but after starting out with games of 5-105 and 6-86 with a score, he only had two small efforts in the last two games. Those were both on the road though and the first two were at home like this week.

Davis caught one pass for 71 yards on the Eagles last year.

The Skins have been dinged by good receiving tight ends and that favors Davis in this game. The one passing score could go anywhere but I'll credit Davis more as a place holder than a lock.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 24 10 19 11 17 9
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 19 32 8 15 3 26

WEEK 6
2011
BUF at NYG HOU at BAL NO at TB MIA at NYJ (mon)
CAR at ATL IND at CIN PHI at WAS ARI, DEN
CLE at OAK JAC at PIT SF at DET KC, SD
  DAL at NE MIN at CHI STL at GB SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t