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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN * SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB * IND at NO * SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA * KC at OAK * STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
*UPDATED GB at MIN * PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF

Prediction: BAL 24, JAC 10

Players to Watch: Ed Dickson

The Ravens are on a three game winning streak and are alone atop the AFC North at 4-1. The Jaguars are 1-5 and have lost their last five straight games and continue to struggle to score more than one touchdown in any matchup. Being a road game should keep the Ravens sharp and the game score low. This is a Monday night game which must have looked better six months ago when they made the schedule.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 35-7 10 @SEA -
2 @TEN 13-26 11 CIN -
3 @STL 37-7 12 SF -
4 NYJ 34-17 13 @CLE -
5 Bye - 14 IND -
6 HOU 29-14 15 @SD -
7 @JAC - 16 CLE -
8 ARI - 17 @CIN -
9 @PIT -   - -
Ravens Report | Statistics | Roster
BALTIMORE at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco - - 240,1
RB Ray Rice 80,1 70 -
TE Ed Dickson - 30,1 -
WR Anquan Boldin - 80 -
WR Torrey Smith - 50 -
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Ravens may have a half game lead in the division but both the Bengals and Steelers are 4-2 which will make 2011 a fight the entire way to win the AFC North crown. It may come down to playing in Cincinnati in week 17. This week should be an easier win against a 1-5 team but the Ravens are looking at week nine when they travel to Pittsburgh where they can complete a sweep of the Steelers. This Ravens team is playing better on both offense and defense this season so focus is their main consideration. THis team can compete with any other team.

I like a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: Joe Flacco has been highly inconsistent this year, as good as 389 yards and three scores in St. Louis and as bad as 163 yards and no scores against the Jets. Flacco has not thrown a touchdown since week three. Facing a weak team like the Jaguars means that the Ravens won't likely need a huge effort from the quarterback to win. The Jaguars have been great against the run but just gave up 146 yards and one score to Rashard Mendenhall. But playing in Jacksonville should mean a better defense so Flacco will need to move the ball a bit more than usual.

He has not scored in three games but should notch at least one touchdown as every other opponent has against the Jags. He could go as high as 300 yards and two scores but is much more reliable at a lower level.

RUNNING BACKS: He may not score much, but Ray Rice at least always churns out the yardage and comes off his second 100 rushing yard game of the year - both in homestands. But Rice always catches four or five passes for 50 or 60 yards nearly every week and his total yardage and reception points make him one of the elite in the position. Against the Texans, Ricky Williams stole the short score and Joe Flacco ran one in as well. Rice only scored once since week two and his four touchdowns were split evenly with two each for rushing and receiving.

The Jaguars have been really good against the run, particularly at home. Rice will get his total yards and could score once on the ground here if it is not hawked by someone else.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Lee Evans has been out since week two and was unable to go through more one practice. I am still going to count him out until he is certain to return. That leaves the only two wideouts that do anything on this ream anyway. Anquan Boldin finally comes off a big game with 132 yards on eight receptions against the Texans but he has not scored since the season opener and and had remained below 75 yards in every matchup until last Sunday. Torrey Smith has replaced Evans and done a great job. He was held to just one catch against the Jets but had 152 yards in St. Louis and 84 yards when the Texans visited. For a rookie, he is very promising.

The wideouts have only scored in two games this year so it is hard to rely on much here even though the Jaguars have allowed five touchdowns. No reason to expect more than a normal moderate game here from the wideouts.

TIGHT ENDS: Ed Dickson has been a marginal tight end with around 30 or 40 yards in most games this year and no scores since the season opener. But the Jaguars have been very weak by giving up four scores to the position and even two 100 yard efforts by opponents. Dickson is no lock for more than 30 yards or so but has a better chance of a score this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 16 5 23 17 1 1
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 11 15 9 27 15 18


Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 TEN 16-14 10 @IND -
2 @NYJ 3-32 11 @CLE -
3 @CAR 10-16 12 HOU -
4 NO 10-23 13 SD -
5 CIN 20-30 14 TB -
6 @PIT 13-17 15 @ATL -
7 BAL - 16 @TEN -
8 @HOU - 17 IND -
9 Bye -      
Jaguars Report | Statistics | Roster
JACKSONVILLE vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Blaine Gabbert 10 - 170,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 70 10 -
TE Marcedes Lewis - 30 -
WR Cecil Shorts - 10 -
WR Jason Hill - 40 -
WR Mike Thomas - 60,1 -
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP -

Pregame Notes: And the beat goes on. The Jaguars have dropped their last five games and while the defense has really played pretty well, the offense is sputtering and so far has averaged only about 11 points per game. It doesn't help that they have gone against a brutal schedule. It does not help that this matchup is no different. Blaine Gabbert has scored once in each of his starts this season. The problem is that he has never done anything more.

QUARTERBACK: Blaine Gabbert is still plodding through his rookie season with just the one score and under 200 yards in nearly every game. He has four touchdowns against only two interceptions though he has lost two fumbles as well. Gabbert has also been sacked 14 times this year.

Gabbert could get that single touchdown and should be a lock for the marginal yardage again this week. He can only hope for trash time and a potentially disinterested Ravens team.

RUNNING BACKS: It speaks to what a great runner Maurice Jones-Drew is when he has never had less than 84 rushing yards in a game this year despite facing numerous top defenses who all know MJD is about all they have to worry about with the Jaguars. But Jones-Drew has a minimal role as a receiver with Gabbert under center and has just one touchdown since the season opener.

The Ravens have been outstanding against runners and allowed just one touchdown (in their only loss). Want scary? No runner has gained more than 53 yards against the Ravens this year. MJD is still a marginal start from his potential but this is likely to be his worst game of the year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: With a touchdown in the last two games, Jason Hill is now the leading scorer among receivers for the Jaguars but aside from his 118 yards against the Bengals, he has been locked under 35 yards per game. One more might make more people a believer, but for now he is just a wideout with 14 receptions over six games who has no consistency and little production. Mike Thomas is the theoretical #1 on this team because he usually ends with over 50 yards in most games though never more than 73 yards. Face it - there is no real fantasy starter here and even less so when they are going against the Ravens.

I do like the single touchdown to most likely end up here and the four wideouts who have scored on the Ravens were usually #2 or #3 for their team. That could mean that Hill could turn in his third straight game with a score. But that is really hard to bank on and he would have minimal yardage anyway. I am putting it on Thomas more as a placeholder.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis ends each game with around 30 yards and never scores. That is consistent in the wrong way.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 21 31 29 25 28
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 4 1 14 1 1 30

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB IND at NO SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA KC at OAK STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
  GB at MIN PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF

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