The Huddle on Facebook Facebook   The Huddle on Twitter Twitter   The Huddle Mobile Mobile Welcome, Guest. You are not logged in.   | Login  |  Help
HOME FANTASY DRAFT KIT IN SEASON ARTICLES NEWS STATS FORUMS TEAMS PLAYERS NFL DRAFT NFL ABOUT myHuddle

FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN * SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB * IND at NO * SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA * KC at OAK * STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
*UPDATED GB at MIN * PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF

Prediction: IND 17, NO 27

Update: Jimmy Graham was upgraded to probable and had some practice on Friday. He is expected to play this week and should not be limited. Joseph Addai remained out with his hamstring on Wednesday and Thursday but then surprisingly had a full practice on Friday. He is listed as questionable but was not expected to play in this game. That just makes any IND running back a major risk this week. I am not changing the projections since I had marginal numbers for them anyway but Addai apparently may make a showing. This is a late game anyway so staying away from Colts running backs is the safest play.

This would have been such a great game before the Colts did the headfirst dive into the unflushed toilet bowl. Now we have to hope the Saints care enough to maintain the fantasy value we want to see. The Saints take this one but may end up taking it a little easier in their first home game in the last four weeks.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 7-34 10 JAC -
2 CLE 19-27 11 Bye -
3 PIT 20-23 12 CAR -
4 @TB 17-24 13 @NE -
5 KC 24-28 14 @BAL -
6 @CIN 17-27 15 TEN -
7 @NO - 16 HOU -
8 @TEN - 17 @JAC -
9 ATL -      
Colts Report | Statistics | Roster
INDIANAPOLIS at NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Curtis Painter - - 240,2
RB Delone Carter 30 - -
RB Donald Brown 40 10 -
TE Dallas Clark - 50,1 -
WR Reggie Wayne - 70 -
WR Austin Collie - 30 -
WR Pierre Garcon - 60,1 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Colts continue to lose and HC Jim Caldwell is now being rumored to be on the hot seat - at 0-6 you sort of have to be. Curtis Painter has been decent but that is a huge step down from a Hall of Famer and the defense is not nearly good enough to keep the Colts in most games. Now on a string of three straight road games, the next opening for a possible win is probably week 10 at home against the Jaguars - and even that doesn't look too good.

QUARTERBACK: Three games into being the starter and at least Curtis Painter has scored in every game though his yardage fell to only 188 in Cincy in his first road game. Painter has enough weapons to compete but a lack of any rushing support means he's throwing from behind in virtually every series.

The Saints should hold the Colts to no more than moderate pass yards and two scores and could do more if they were motivated. But the Colts are clawing and the Saints are finally back at home where they can relax more. That should spell a little more success for Painter - just not enough.

RUNNING BACKS: Joseph Addai never practiced last week because of his hamstring and is likely to miss this week as well. In his place, Delone Carter (14-45) and Donald Brown (5-35, TD) split up meager yardage in Cincy and will do so again this week. While there may be a shot at a touchdown again, the split in carries makes both runners not attractive for a fantasy start. Neither player does much as a receiver either.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Not much happening here even though this is where the Colts need the most production. Pierre Garcon went back to being a pumpkin with eight catches for only 52 yards on the Bengals while Reggie Wayne still cranks out games like 5-58 and 4-59. Austin Collie only had one catch last week for eight yards and that isn't even his worst game. There is no denying that Painter prefers Garcon. He has thrown him 27 passes in three weeks as a starter while Wayne only had 21 targets.

The Saints are weaker than most against wideouts if only because of trash time yards and scores which could exist this week. Most likely is no more than moderate yardage for Wayne and Garcon and one touchdown that I will credit to Garcon as the most likely but as always - it could go anywhere. Painter prefers Garcon and the Saints have allowed six different wideouts who were not the #1 score on them. Assuming you can still call Wayne a #1.

TIGHT ENDS: Dallas Clark finally scored last week even though it required an awe-inspiring leap and one-handed grab while tapping his toes at the back of the end zone. Clark has been better in road games with Painter and the Saints have allowed three scores to the position in just the last four games. It may not happen but Clark should at least get some yardage this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 29 30 14 21 23 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 24 21 24 14 24 16


New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 34-42 10 @ATL -
2 CHI 30-13 11 Bye -
3 HOU 40-33 12 NYG -
4 @JAC 23-10 13 DET -
5 @CAR 30-27 14 @TEN -
6 @TB 20-26 15 @MIN -
7 IND - 16 ATL -
8 @STL - 17 CAR -
9 TB - - - -
Saints Report | Statistics | Roster
NEW ORLEANS vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees - - 350,2
RB Mark Ingram 50,1 - -
RB Pierre Thomas 30 - -
RB Darren Sproles 30 50 -
TE Jimmy Graham - 100 -
WR Marques Colston - 90,1 -
WR Lance Moore - 40 -
WR Devery Henderson - 20 -
WR Robert Meachem - 40,1 -
PK John Kasay 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Saints are the first team in recent memory with a head coach on the injury report. Sean Payton suffered a broken leg and torn MCL when he was rolled up on by Jimmy Graham near the sidelines. Payton will likely be in the booth for the next two months since he won't be walking but the Saints coaching staff has all been together for a while now and it should have no effect on the game.

QUARTERBACK: After three weeks on the road, Drew Brees returns home with a total of 13 touchdowns on the season and three scores in each of the previous home games. He is the first NFL quarterback to throw for 350+ yards in four consecutive games ever. That could happen again this week but the Saints won't need it to happen for the win. Most opponents of the Colts only throw for one score and maybe 250 yards because that is all they have to do.

Brees is a must start and could light it up this week but may have a lesser showing after a tough opening stretch of games.

RUNNING BACKS: Here is the fun part. The Saints are using three backs in an ever-changing rotation. Despite ponying up for a first round back in Mark Ingram, they continue to use Pierre Thomas for seven or eight runs per week. And Darren Sproles gets anywhere from one to eleven runs per week. Ingram usually turns in ten carries. And now Chris Ivory is coming off the PUP list and is healthy and ready to play.

If the Saints go to a FOUR man rotation, I'll only project for "SAINTS RB" and let you flip your own coin. Ingram is most likely to score and has three touchdown in the last four games but the rushing yardage is sliced and diced differently every week. Sproles maintains his value only because he is a receiver as well. Oh yeah - the fullback Jed has two touchdowns as well. Sigh...

No doubt there are fantasy points here this week. The Colts regularly allow nice efforts from opponents backfields but as always - the split is hard to gauge. Expect the more standard - Ingram with some yards and one score, Thomas with some yardage but never enough to matter and Sproles throwing down decent fantasy points thanks to receptions.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Marques Colston finally had a big game with seven receptions for 118 yards and one score in Tampa Bay but it was his first touchdown on the year and the wideouts combined only had seven scores and that was the first in the last three weeks. Brees has become so enamored of Jimmy Graham and even Darren Sproles that the wideouts have become secondary in the passing scheme. Even when it means the Saints lost the Bucs game when Brees was throwing at Graham and had an interception while Robert Meachem was freaking out and jumping up and down while screaming standing all alone in the end zone only about ten yards to the left. Lance Moore has been stuck around 40 yards per game in the last three weeks.

You have to assume none of these players are good starts other than Colston who has risk even still. Oddly enough because of injuries, this will be the first home game for Colston this year. The Colts have been very bad against wide receivers so I like both scores to end up here. Colston should have a nice time in his first home game and even Meachem should get more attention after last week. It could still end up with Graham again but at least defenses are trying to load up against him in the red zone.

TIGHT ENDS: Jimmy Graham is starting to sprint away from all other tight ends now that he has turned in 100+ yards in each of the last four games and has never been worse than 56 yards in any game. Graham is the preferred target for Brees and is The Stud this year. The Colts have been great against the position statistically but really have not faced any decent pass catching tight ends. Until now.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 4 3 11 2 3 25
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 18 28 28 6 23 22

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB IND at NO SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA KC at OAK STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
  GB at MIN PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF

a d v e r t i s e m e n t