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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN * SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB * IND at NO * SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA * KC at OAK * STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
*UPDATED GB at MIN * PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF
s

Prediction: SD 16, NYJ 20

Update: Vincent Jackson had full practices on Thursday and Friday and will play with no limitation. Antonio Gates sat out Thursday but then had a full day for the first time on Friday and is expected to play some role this week. Gates makes the Chargers better just being there and forcing the defense to account for him but now the question is who Darrelle Revis will cover - Gates or Jackson or either on different plays? I am adding Gates back into the projections but his role is not certain nor how many snaps he will be expected to play. He still carries a lot of risk this week.

The Chargers are still on top of the AFC West but are only 1-1 on the road and coming off their bye week. The Jets are on a short week after beating up the winless Dolphins and remain at home where they are 3-0. The Chargers are still banged up and this is the best defense they have yet faced after opening up against a very, very accommodating set of defenses so far.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIN 24-17 10 OAK -
2 @NE 21-35 11 @CHI -
3 KC 20-17 12 DEN -
4 MIA 26-16 13 @JAC -
5 @DEN 29-24 14 BUF -
6 Bye - 15 BAL -
7 @NYJ - 16 @DET -
8 @KC - 17 @OAK -
9 GB -      
Chargers Report | Statistics | Roster
SAN DIEGO at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers - - 240
RB Ryan Mathews 60,1 60 -
TE Randy McMichael - 20 -
TE Antonio Gates - 50 -
WR Malcolm Floyd - 50 -
WR Vincent Jackson - 60 -
PK Nick Novak 3 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: This will be the toughest defense so far and with Antonio Gates and even Vincent Jackson as question marks, it makes this game even more challenging. The Chargers are 4-1 but consider the wins came over the MIN (1-5), KC (2-3), MIA (0-5) and DEN 1-4). These Chargers may not be as good as their record indicates.

QUARTERBACK: After starting out with two games over 330 yards and a couple of scores in each, Philip Rivers has really cooled down. He's only thrown for two scores total over the last three games and mostly been around 250 yards per game. He's also been sacked at least twice in each matchup. Rivers has been a top quarterback and has been posting the yardage but so far has thrown for six touchdowns against seven interceptions and two lost fumbles.

Tough gig this week against a secondary that has only allowed one touchdown in the last four weeks. Rivers has not been lighting it up lately either. Even one touchdown and moderate yardage would be a success against this defense.

RUNNING BACKS: This has been a much improved year for Ryan Mathews who has posted strong yardage every week thanks to his role as a receiver. Mathews rushed for 125 yards in Denver and has averaged 83 rushing yards per game. But he has been putting up 50+ yards as a receiver in all but one game and has 52 yards per game as a receiver. He is short on scoring with three rushing touchdowns but has been no worse than 118 total yards in any game.

Mike Tolbert has taken a very secondary role this year with minimal rushing yards per game and only one score since the season opener. He's a marginal bye week filler at best while Mathews is having such a great season.

This is where the Chargers have to compete and while Mathews should see some success, realize that the Jets have allowed seven rushing touchdowns this year and only one was in a home game. No runner has gained more than 88 yards in New York so far (Maurice Jones-Drew). Start Mathews this week but temper expectations from what the Jets allowed over their three game road trek.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The inconsistency of the wide receivers match the lack of big stats by Rivers as of late. Vincent Jackson has an odd pattern of playing well only every other game. He has turned in three games with less than 65 yards and no scores and yet went 10-172 and two scores in New England and 2-108 and a touchdown versus the Dolphins. Malcolm Floyd finally showed up with a 100 yard game with one score in Denver but otherwise has been stuck at around two catches for 50 yards each week with no other touchdowns. Jackson has been huge against weak secondaries but then really held in check otherwise.

Jackson did not practice on Monday which is troublesome since he has been on bye is and still bothered by his hamstring. I will assume he plays and update as needed.

This will be very tough and assumedly Jackson draws Revis for the game which really puts a damper on the outlook. This may change in the update depending on Gates playing but I am giving Floyd the score. This is not a good place to play and while it is hard to sit Jackson (if healthy), keep expectations lower from his this week.

TIGHT ENDS: Still no guarantee that Antonio Gates will play this week after missing the last three games because of his always sore foot. Randy McMichael has not scored or turned in more than 51 yards in a game as a replacement and mostly hangs out around 25 yards per game. The Jets have been equally good against tight ends and none have scored on them this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 10 1 17 26 5 29
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 29 7 8 18 29


New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE -
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN -
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD - 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF -      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 190,1
RB Shonn Greene 50 - -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 20 30 -
TE Dustin Keller - 50,1 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 30 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 30 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 50 -
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Jets are back at home where no team has scored a touchdown since the season opener but the offense continues to sputter even in solid wins. Mark Sanchez is not taking the next step if in fact he has ever taken any and the rushing game of ground-n-pound is more aptly termed ground-n-punt. But the defense has kept the Jets in most games and has been outstanding in home games.

I like a defensive score in this game.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez faced the weak Dolphins defense and only managed one touchdown and 201 yards. That gives him nine scores in five outings and while he has twice passed for over 300 yards, he has been at 200 yards or under in all the rest. This week he faces a Chargers secondary that has been statistically good because it feasted on the passing attacks of MIN, KC, MIA and DEN. Tom Brady tore them up for 423 yards and three scores (though Brady and Sanchez are not exactly interchangeable).

At home Sanchez should manage to throw for one score on this defense and the same marginal yardage he usually does.

RUNNING BACKS: There is no way to sugarcoat it - the rushing attack has no one. The Jets can desire to run the ball all they want but that doesn't make Shonn Greene into anything more than a guy who can hit the hole and then fall down. He is a primary back with 93 carries but only 314 yards for a 3.4 yard average. He only gained 74 yards on 21 runs against the visiting Jets and that was with one fluke 20 yard run. The Jets try to use LaDainian Tomlinson more but he's past his prime as a between the tackles runner. And the team won't give Joe McKnight any work despite mentioning his name as a player they need to give more opportunities.

The Chargers rank well against the run but have really played against some lackluster teams and even old-timer Willis McGahee gained 125 yards on 16 runs against this defense. Greene cannot be relied on to offer more than marginal stats each week despite the volume of carries the Jets afford him. There could be a rushing score here but there has just been no real improvement made that would make it seem likely.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This unit is mostly Santonio Holmes and then the rest. Holmes has scored three times this season including the last two games and he is the only wideout with any real yardage. No wide receiver for the Jets has gained more than 72 yards in any game and Plaxico Burress started well enough for three weeks but then has been nearly invisible since. He has only caught seven passes in the last three games with a total of only 91 yards and n o scores. The rookie Jeremy Kerley is a nonfactor as well aside from one score in the Pats game.

The Chargers come in with a secondary ranked #2 against wide receivers and have allowed just two touchdowns to the position. Hope for yardage for Holmes but figure a touchdown as unlikely this week. Most any week really.

TIGHT ENDS: Dustin Keller disappears in road games but his two touchdowns both came at home and he has always turned in at least 50 yards there. This is the weakness of the Dolphins who have allowed four touchdowns to the position (twice that of the wideouts). This should be the week to see Keller back in the end zone.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 12 22 26 13 19 3
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 5 7 2 26 11 28

WEEK 7
2011
ATL at DET HOU at TEN SD at NYJ BAL at JAC (mon)
CHI at TB IND at NO SEA at CLE Bye Week
DEN at MIA KC at OAK STL at DAL BUF, CIN, NE
  GB at MIN PIT at ARI WAS at CAR NYG, PHI, SF

a d v e r t i s e m e n t