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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 8
2011
* ARI at BAL * DET at DEN * MIN at CAR * SD at KC (mon)
* CIN at SEA IND at TEN * NE at PIT Bye Week
* CLE at SF * JAC at HOU * NO at STL ATL, CHI, GB
* Updated DAL at PHI * MIA at NYG WAS at BUF NYJ, OAK, TB

Prediction: MIA 10, NYG 27

Players to Watch: Jake Ballard

Update: Brandon Jacobs was limited in all practices but is listed as probable and will play without any problems this week. Daniel Thomas is listed as questionable and has been rested in some practices so his hamstring does not become a problem but will play this week and is not expected to be limited in the game any more than he is playing for the Dolphins.

Update #2 - On Saturday, Thomas was downgraded and is now not expected to play. Lex Hilliard will take his place but is not an attractive start this week.

The Fins hit the road after losing their sixth game of the year when they could not protect a 15-0 lead with four minutes left to play against the Broncos. There is no denying that times are tough and emotions are high in Miami. The Giants come off their bye week still atop the NFC East at 4-2 and should be healthier and rested.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 24-38 10 WAS -
2 HOU 13-23 11 BUF -
3 @CLE 16-17 12 @DAL -
4 @SD 16-26 13 OAK -
5 Bye - 14 PHI -
6 @NYJ 6-24 15 @BUF -
7 DEN 15-18 16 @NE -
8 @NYG - 17 NYJ -
9 @KC -      
Dolphins Report | Statistics | Roster
MIAMI at NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore - - 180,1
RB Reggie Bush 70 20 -
RB Daniel Thomas 60 - -
TE Anthony Fasano - 20 -
WR Brandon Marshall - 70,1 -
WR Brian Hartline - 30 -
WR Davone Bess - 50 -
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 1 XP -
Pregame Notes: The good news is that the Dolphins owner is going to the West Coast on a trip so HC Tony Sparano is safe. The bad news is that it won't be a long trip. Rumor was that Sparano had to beat the Broncos to keep his job and he made them go to overtime before losing. There is just nothing about this team that speaks to being even average. No element is horrible but none are good. Put that all together and you get 0-6 on the season. There is an excellent chance that the Fins reach the elusive 0-16.

QUARTERBACK: With two starts under his belt, Matt Moore has thrown for one touchdown and two interceptions while getting sacked four times each week and losing one fumble. Both times he was right at 200 yards in a losing effort.

The Giants have been good against the pass lately and there is no reason to hang your hat here. Moore should manage yardage if only in trash time but anything more than one touchdown would be a big surprise.

RUNNING BACKS: Daniel Thomas has been back for two weeks now but facing tougher defenses means he's been stuck at around 50 rushing yards per game despite getting 15 to 20 carries in each. Reggie Bush siphons off about ten runs each matchup but does nothing more with his carries and neither player has been used much as a receiver while Moore has started games.

The Giants have been more susceptible to the run but these Dolphins are just bad. There has only been one rushing touchdown by a running back and that was with Lex Hilliard. Expect moderate yardage divided up again.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Brandon Marshall has been light on production and scored just once but compared to the others he's a stud. he remains above 60 yards in most games and has one touchdown of the two scored by wide receivers. He typically gets ten targets or so each game while the others never score and rarely exceed 50 yards. There is just no fantasy value here outside the marginal stats of Brandon Marshall.

The Giants secondary has been victimized in most games and allowed seven scores to the position. I like the one touchdown to end up here and on this team it almost has to end up with Marshall who still remains a risk for anything above 50 yards or so. Hope for trash time and he may do better.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano comes off his first score of the year but he only ended with two catches for 22 yards on the Broncos and accounted for only one catch in the three previous games. No fantasy value here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 26 18 19 29 14 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 15 23 27 3 7 22


New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @WAS 14-28 10 @SF -
2 STL 28-16 11 PHI -
3 @PHI 29-16 12 @NO -
4 @ARI 31-27 13 GB -
5 SEA 25-36 14 @DAL -
6 BUF 27-24 15 WAS -
7 Bye - 16 @NYJ -
8 MIA - 17 DAL -
9 @NE - - - -
Giants Report | Statistics | Roster
NY GIANTS vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning - - 280,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 30,1 - -
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60 30 -
TE Jake Ballard - 50,1 -
WR Victor Cruz - 40 -
WR Hakeem Nicks - 100,1 -
WR Mario Manningham - 50 -
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Giants were upset by the visiting Seahawks in week five but bounced back to beat the undefeated Bills in week six before going on their bye. The week off should see a return of Brandon Jacobs and a nice home win before hitting a very tough stretch of the schedule. Once the Fins are gone, the Giants have a murderous schedule of @NE, @SF, PHI, @NO, GB, @DAL, WAS, @NYJ and then DAL. The NFC East is almost certain to come down to those final few weeks of the season.

QUARTERBACK: Eli Manning has exceeded expectations so far but that is not entirely out of character for a quarterback with a past of fast starts and slow finishes. He was on a nice string of four straight games with two or more scores and has been as good as 420 yards in a game. In the most recent matchup, Manning passed for 292 yards but no scores because Ahmad Bradshaw scored three times. But Manning has been very solid in yardage every week - 296 yards per game on average - and scored well unless the ground game really works which could be the case again this week.

The Dolphins have always given up at least one passing score and more often two or more along with good yardage for those who want it. Manning won't need to bomb them to win and the Giants have that bad schedule looming so expect a solid win that doesn't go too far to roll up the score. Manning should at least have a decent game here and it could be big if he wants.

RUNNING BACKS: Brandon Jacobs missed the last two weeks with a score knee but should be back to practice this week and says he is a lock to play against the Dolphins - who wouldn't want in on that game? Jacobs has been light on the yardage and carries but scored twice and is the preferred goal line back. Ahmad Bradshaw was having a standard committee back year with a couple of scores and close to 100 total yards in most games but when Jacobs out against the Bills, Bradshaw ran 26 times for 104 yards and three touchdowns. This week - back to dividing up the workload.

The Fins have actually been decent against the run and allowed only two rushing touchdown to a running back, The Fins have also played against teams with less than stellar rushing games. Safest bet here is for yardage for Bradshaw and a shot at one score for Jacobs.

WIDE RECEIVERS : Hakeem Nicks has turned in the odd bad game but he's been gold much more than not. Nicks has three touchdowns on the season and topped 120 yards in two games. He's scored or had at least 95 yards in all but the Philly game. Victor Cruz has been the big surprise with three scores and over 98 yards for three straight weeks but then settled down to only 12 yards on two catches against the Bills in the most recent matchup. Mario Manningham is almost robotic in gaining right at 50 yards each week and never scoring. Cruz is the interesting one but has drawn the ire of the coaches because of his inconsistency.

This is the weakness of the Dolphins who have allowed eight scores to this position. This should be a slam dunk for a good game from Nicks with at least one touchdown

TIGHT ENDS Jake Ballard is developing into a nice weapon for the Giants with a score in two of the last three games and 81 yards when he did not reach the endzone. He's still far down the list for targets and has only once turned in more than three receptions but for a team that has not seen value in this position since Jeremy Shockey left, Ballard is definitely one to watch.

The Dolphins have been weak against the tight ends as well and allowed four touchdowns here. Ballard has been coming on and the Fins are soft - he makes a decent start this week and a chance for one score if Nicks does not double up.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 9 7 5 14 28 6
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 28 15 18 30 25 28

WEEK 8
2011
ARI at BAL DET at DEN MIN at CAR SD at KC (mon)
CIN at SEA IND at TEN NE at PIT Bye Week
CLE at SF JAC at HOU NO at STL ATL, CHI, GB
  DAL at PHI MIA at NYG WAS at BUF NYJ, OAK, TB

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