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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 9
2011
* ATL at IND * DEN at OAK * NYJ at BUF TB at NO
* BAL at PIT * GB at SD SEA at DAL CHI at PHI (mon)
CIN at TEN * MIA at KC * SF at WAS Bye Week
* Updated * CLE at HOU * NYG at NE * STL at ARI CAR, DET, JAC, MIN

Prediction: NYJ 20, BUF 24

Players to Watch: Donald Jones

Update: Plaxico Burress is questionable with a sore back and is no lock to play. I am lowering his stats and realize that he may not play this week. Check pregame inactives if you must use him.

This is the first of two matchups between these divisional rivals and it will be pivotal for both. The Bills are tied with the Pats at 5-2 and own the head-to-head tie breaker. The Jets are only 4-3 and a loss here makes it very hard to make up ground with losses to the Pats and Bills. One small problem - the Jets are 0-3 on the road and the Bills are 4-0 at home.

The Jets swept the Bills in 2010, winning 38-14 in Buffalo and later 38-7 in the season finale in New York.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 27-24 10 NE -
2 JAC 32-3 11 @DEN -
3 @OAK 24-34 12 BUF -
4 @BAL 17-34 13 @WAS -
5 @NE 21-30 14 KC -
6 MIA 24-6 15 @PHI -
7 SD 27-21 16 NYG -
8 Bye - 17 @MIA -
9 @BUF -      
Jets Report | Statistics | Roster
NY JETS at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez - - 240,2
RB Shonn Greene 50 10 -
RB LaDainian Tomlinson 20 20 -
TE Dustin Keller - 50,1 -
WR Plaxico Burress - 20 -
WR Jeremy Kerley - 30,1 -
WR Santonio Holmes - 70 -
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP -
Pregame Notes: The three toughest games left on the schedule happen over the next four weeks and by week 13, the Jets will know if they are in the playoff race or just playing out the year. The Jets have been great at home but on the road just become a different team. Their three road losses were all by no less than nine points. The year started out with a stacked set of receivers and is already shifted back into a run-heavy scheme - but the personnel to make it work just are not there.

QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez comes off the bye and is back to being more the game manager with the ground-n-pound now the directive. He has scored at least twice in all but the Ravens game but his yardage has remained 200 or less since the change in offensive philosophy. Sanchez has been better as a fantasy quarterback so far with 12 passing touchdowns and two rushing scores but ongoing his outlook is less at least in yardage. That philosophy is going to be harder to stick to with the next four games including the Patriots and two meetings with the Bills.

Sanchez threw for 161 yards and two scores in Buffalo last season.

There is a chance that the Jets could throw a couple of scores and most have high yardage in Buffalo as well. Bank on one score and hope the second one happens. The Jets will try to run enough to lower what Sanchez can do.

RUNNING BACKS: Shonn Greene tweaked his ankle in the most recent game but is not expected to have any problems thanks to two weeks to heal up. Greene ran for 112 yards on 20 carries in the Chargers matchup for his first game over the 100 yard mark. But he has only scored twice all year and is on a pace to barely eclipse 1000 yards. Greene has the opportunity to be a heavy use back but nothing so far says he will be anything besides a mediocre back.

Greene rushed for 117 yards on 22 carries and Tomlinson scored twice on his 33 rushing yards on 19 rushes on the Bills last year.

Don't expect a repeat because the Bills are much better at home and The Jets only have two rushing touchdowns by a running ball all year. Figure on yards but not scores.

WIDE RECEIVERS: About the time that Plaxico Burress had landed on every waiver wire out there, he comes up with a three touchdown effort against the Chargers. And yet - he still only caught four passes for 25 yards. Chances are beyond good that the three scores were just an aberration and the 25 yards is very much in the vein of what he had been producing for the last month. Santonio Holmes only posted 24 yards on two catches in the Chargers matchup but scored in the two previous games. He's actually been a little better since the return of the "ground-n-pound" in most games as the only receiver who does anything. Derrick Mason is gone and the rookie Jeremy Kerley assumes the slot position that is almost never used.

The Bills secondary can be beaten and at least one score is likely to end up in this group. That has strongly favored Burress in recent weeks though Holmes should have moderate to good yardage anyway.

TIGHT ENDS: While Dustin Keller has not scored since back in week two, at least he has doubled up on 50+ yard games recently and remains a factor as a receiver for moderate yardage.

Keller caught two touchdowns on his four receptions for 28 yards in Buffalo last season. He has not scored since week two but the Jets are especially weak against this position. THey have allowed four games over 70 yards and three scores. Keller should end up with strong yardage if not a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 12 17 24 14 19 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 24 21 18 25 3 1


Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL -
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA -
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ -
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN -
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ -      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 190,1
RB Fred Jackson 110,2 50 -
TE Scott Chandler - 10 -
WR David Nelson - 40,1 -
WR Steve Johnson - 30 -
WR Donald Jones - 40 -
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Bills made amends for the loss in New York by coming off their bye and shutting out Mike Shanahan for the first time in his NFL career. Not unlike the Jets, the Bills have a tough schedule ahead including three road games in the next month and that includes both meetings with the Jets, It lightens up then until week 17 in New England where it could all be on the line. This week is a must win.

I like a defensive score.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick has heated back up with two scores and 240+ yards in each of the last two games and he stands at 14 touchdowns on the season against nine interceptions. Fitzpatrick has scored in all but one game.

Fitzpatrick passed for 128 yards and two scores when the Jets visited last year.

Getting those two scores are going to be tough since the Jets have only allowed a total of two passing touchdowns since the season opener and all but Tom Brady turned in 205 pass yards or less. Fitzpatrick at home should still manage a score but the yardage will be lower this week - it always is when facing the Jets.

RUNNING BACKS: While Fred Jackson fell off his pace of five straight games with a touchdown, he still gained 120 yards on 26 carries and added 74 more yards on three receptions versus the Skins. Jackson has churned out over 110 rushing yards in all but two games and his role as a receiver nets nearly as many yards as being a running back. They are working on a contract extension for him but it is hard to construct given that Jackson is already 30-years old.

This is where the Bills need to be careful because Jackson is already sleeper of the year ad while he may not have many more years, he is have a great one now. He faces a defense that has allowed six touchdowns in the three road games and two runners had major yardage. No doubt that Jackson will be the man again this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is a good chance that Donald Jones will be back in practice this week after missing the last three weeks with a ankle sprain. He just adds to the mix that Fitzpatrick mixes and matches each game. Steve JOhnson is the leading scorer with four touchdowns but draws Darrell Revis this week and should be avoided. David Nelson has been solid in the slot and Naaman Roosevelt will drop back to make room for Jones.

Steve Johnson scored once on the visiting Jets last year but only had three catches for 31 yards.

I am awarding the score to Nelson but it could go anywhere. No receiver is likely to have a big game this week.

TIGHT ENDS:Scott Chandler could end up with the score since he had a touchdown last Sunday but that was his first since week three. He's almost worthless in yardage so forget about him unless you really think he can score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 8 5 9 23 9 5
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 23 2 17 15 29

WEEK 9
2011
ATL at IND DEN at OAK NYJ at BUF TB at NO
BAL at PIT GB at SD SEA at DAL CHI at PHI (mon)
CIN at TEN MIA at KC SF at WAS Bye Week
  CLE at HOU NYG at NE STL at ARI CAR, DET, JAC, MIN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t