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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Upon Further Review: Week 9
David Dorey & John Tuvey
November 4, 2011
 

In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections. The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.

JON BALDWIN (vs. MIA) – PROJECTION: 70 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: S3

TUVEY: It all boils down to this: I have yet to receive my introductory packet for the Jonathan Baldwin Fan Club: no bumper sticker, no pencil-top eraser, no temporary tattoo. I send a strongly worded letter to fan club president David Dorey, but I haven’t heard back yet. I like Baldwin, I’m comfortable starting him against the Dolphins this week, I just don’t have him as a top-10 play like my esteemed colleague. Once my packet shows up, however, and I get my lock of hair and vial of official game-used Jonathan Baldwin sweat…

DOREY: Yeah, I have been wanting to see what Baldwin could do and I was impressed with what I saw. After being targeted five times but only catching one for 14 yards, Baldwin turned eight passes into five catches for 82 yards and one score against the Chargers in only his second game. The Dolphins have already allowed ten scores to opposing wideouts and this is one of their biggest weaknesses. The Chiefs have no vaunted rushing game anymore so I like Cassel to have a nice passing effort here. In dividing that up, the running backs do not catch much and the tight end has been meaningless since Moeaki left. That leaves three wideouts and I like Dwayne Bowe. With plenty of yards and another score and only two wideouts to award, I liked Baldwin looking great against the Chargers more than Breaston who is going to lose more playing time to the first round rookie.

CONSENSUS:  Any player with only two games in his career is a huge risk to rely on but the conditions are favorable for a decent game if you are willing to accept the risk. Baldwin has upside this week to be sure.

RYAN FITZPATRICK vs. NYJ) – PROJECTION: 190 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: S2

TUVEY: As the S/BL write-up states, I’m on the fence with Fitz and nudged him up due to this being a home game. Even an S3 needs more than 190 yards or another touchdown, and Fitz is playing well enough to do both. He’s involved secondary receivers before, so just because Darrelle Revis will lock down Stevie Johnson doesn’t mean Fitz can’t still put up helpful fantasy numbers

DOREY: I went with such smaller projections more because I like the chance that Fred Jackson alone controls the game and gets the yardage and scores on the ground. That doesn't leave much behind for the passing game. Plus the Jets are ranked #1 against quarterbacks and yet only #23 against running backs.

CONSENSUS:  This is about as bad a matchup that Fitzpatrick gets other than it is at home. He's a huge risk for anything beyond a marginal game.

ARRELIOUS BENN (@ NOS) – PROJECTION: 60 YDS + 1 TD, SBL RATING: B

TUVEY: I get that the Bucs want to get Benn more involved, and I’m on board with the prospect. However, he’s starting from a pretty low baseline—as in, one target for zero catches last week, three or fewer catches in six straight games, and less than 50 yards in every game but one. If a Tampa Bay receiver is going to have success here, I’d bank on it being Mike Williams, who’s being targeted an average of seven times more per game. I’m just not ready to buy a “more involved” jump from zeroes to a top-15 receiver this week.

DOREY: I guess the problem is that I gave him a touchdown but Benn already had three catches for 83 yards and a score (67-yard touchdown) against these Saints just three weeks ago. The Buccaneers do want to get him more work but I backed down to 60 yards largely as a function of taking total passing yards and spraying it over four wider receivers. Do not rely on the score happening and 60 yards is like 40 yards plus one more catch. He has little track record to rely on.

CONSENSUS:  Benn is a huge risk to rely on in any game let alone on the road against the Saints. He has success before but that was mostly one pass and you cannot expect that to happen again. His downside is bigger than his upside.

DARIUS HEYWARD-BEY (vs. DEN) – PROJECTION: 70 + 1, SBL RATING S3

TUVEY: I’ll concede S3 might be a tad low, but I couched DHB because his quarterback has been sitting at home on a couch for the better part of the last 10 months and threw three picks in one half in his last outing. I guess if he can produce 5-89 in a half with Kyle Boller and a half with Carson Palmer after three practices, expecting S2 production isn’t asking too much.

DOREY: Straight up - who knows really? Carson Palmer is on a new team with all new players and a new playbook he only opened for the first time two weeks ago. All we know is that the only receiver that has been productive and consistent has been Darius Heyward-Bey and my guess is there will be one passing score like the Broncos always allow.

CONSENSUS:  The Great Unknown. Figure on DHB being a low end starter and even that assumes that he may do nothing this week. There just is not enough data to go on to make a reliable projection on this passing game yet.

JAVON RINGER (vs. CIN) – PROJECTION: 40 + 10 + 1 TD, SBL RATING B

TUVEY: The difference here, quite simply, is the touchdown. The Bengals have surrendered one RB rushing score in each of the last six games, and if you’ve heard any of DMD’s anti-Chris Johnson rants on our Sirius XM show you knew there was no way CJ would be getting the projected TD. I don’t know that I trust Ringer enough to start him, but if that TD has to go somewhere I’m with David that it’s Ringer and not Johnson.

DOREY: Agreed. I am trying not to start ranting again ABOUT THE PLAYER FORMERLY KNOWN AS CHRIS JOHNSON AND HOW IN THE FREAKING WORLD.... deep breath... sorry - dynasty owner. Yeah the stage is set for the surprisingly good defense of the Bengals to yet again turn the rushing effort of the Titans into a game of freeze tag. The Titans say they are going to keep SlowMotionJohnson as the primary back for reasons that defy rationale. So I split meager yardage and since there is a chance for a rushing score, I was not giving it to Christine.

CONSENSUS:  Bank a lot more on the 40 than the score and leaving this alone is the safest play of them all.

Start Bench List Ratings:
S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup) U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup) X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely) B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.


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