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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: BUF 21, DAL 27

Update: Steve Johnson missed practice on Friday because of the flu but is expected to be able to play on Sunday barring any setbacks.

The Bills remain tied with the Patriots and Jets at 5-3 in the AFC East but are only 1-2 in road games and that one win came in the season opener. The Cowboys are 4-4 and 3-1 at home trying to string two wins together. The difference here is mainly venue though it could swing to the Bills if Romo challenges the secondary too many times. The Bills lead the league with 15 interceptions.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 41-7 10 @DAL -
2 OAK 38-35 11 @MIA -
3 NE 34-31 12 @NYJ -
4 @CIN 20-23 13 TEN -
5 PHI 31-24 14 @SD -
6 @NYG 24-27 15 MIA -
7 Bye - 16 DEN -
8 WAS 23-0 17 @NE -
9 NYJ 11-27      
Bills Report | Statistics | Roster
BUFFALO at DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick - - 230,2
RB Fred Jackson 90 50 -
TE Scott Chandler - 20,1 -
WR David Nelson - 40 -
WR Steve Johnson - 50,1 -
WR Donald Jones - 30 -
PK Dave Rayner FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: Rian Lindell is out for at least month or more with a shoulder injury and Dave Rayner has been signed to take his place. The Bills embark on the tougher part of their schedule now that they have only three home games versus five road trips ahead. With four away games in the next five weeks, the Bills are going to struggle to remain in the thick of the divisional race.

I like the defense to score here.

QUARTERBACK: Ryan Fitzpatrick had a hot start to the season but has since cooled off and averaged only 218 yards per game over the last five weeks. He has passed for only six scores in that time as well but that partially reflects the success of the rushing game. In Dallas, the Cowboys have only allowed three passing touchdowns in four games and never more than 250 passing yards. Fitzpatrick should be a lock for one score but will have to work to get the second one.

RUNNING BACKS: The Bills are getting gold from Fred Jackson every week and while he has not scored in the last two games, he totals six touchdowns and five efforts over 100 rushing yards. Jackson also adds between 30 and 80 yards as a receiver each week to ensure that he just never has a bad game.

The Cowboys were tops against the run until they went to Philly and then lost LB Sean Lee and let Marshawn Lynch run well in Dallas last week. But Lee is expected back and the Cowboys should keep Jackson from a monster game. But he is a must start regardless and always good for the total yardage.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This remains a decent overall unit that has no real stars in it. Steve Johnson is best of the bunch but only has one score since week three and only once more than 60 yards in those last five games. David Nelson shows up for the touchdowns in home games but rarely has much yardage. Donald Jones is back but has not been a factor since week three. His return sends Naaman Roosevelt back down the depth chart.

The Cowboys secondary has been great in home games and only allowed one wideout to score in Dallas. None have turned in a 100+ effort there and the Bills were unlikely to be the first in any case. Of the two passing scores, I strongly like the tight end to score but the other could end up here. No certainty on which player would get it though so consider it a placeholder.

TIGHT ENDS: Scott Chandler never has much yardage but he leads the team with six touchdowns and should notch one more this week. The fact that he rarely has any yardage means he is a big risk to rely on since all he has to do is drop the scoring pass and all you get is 10 yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 10 6 10 21 12 6
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 11 12 11 31 12 16


Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 24-27 10 BUF -
2 @SF 27-24 11 @WAS -
3 WAS 18-16 12 MIA -
4 DET 30-34 13 @ARI -
5 Bye - 14 NYG -
6 @NE 16-20 15 @TB -
7 STL 34-7 16 PHI -
8 @PHI 7-34 17 @NYG -
9 SEA 23-13      
Cowboys Report | Statistics | Roster
DALLAS vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo - - 260,2
RB DeMarco Murray 110,1 30 -
TE Jason Witten - 50,1 -
WR Kevin Ogletree - 20 -
WR Dez Bryant - 90,1 -
WR Laurent Robinson - 60 -
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys beat up on the Seahawks to make them feel better about the Eagles massacre but still only have a 4-4 record. Their old head coach Chan Gailey returns as the only man that Jerry Jones ever said that he wished he had not fired. The Cowboys remaining schedule is far better than most but a win this week has to happen. If they are to have any pretense of January play, the Cowboys have to find the consistency they have missed. A rushing game could be key.

QUARTERBACK: Tony Romo has not been as productive or error prone in recent weeks largely due to Demarco Murray. After throwing for over 300 yards in four of five games, Romo has only averaged 216 yards per game while Murray runs and he has only thrown one interception in the last three weeks. He is still good for a score or two every week but the big yardage is slipping away with every run that Murray makes.

The Bills have really faced a mostly motley crew of quarterbacks a nd yet still allowed most to throw for over 290 yards. Romo should end up with at least one score in this game if not two but the yardage is likely to again be less than earlier in the season.

RUNNING BACKS: Felix Jones is starting to get some work finally and may make it back for this game but he's going to be a secondary player now that DeMarco Murray has emerged even if the Cowboys do not want to come out and say that directly. Jones has been out since week six with a sprained ankle and has been "Pipped" by DeMarco Murray. Jones will have a role and that will detract from Murray but how much remains to be seen and reason alone says "let the good one have the biggest chunk". For this week, Murray still looks likely to take a heavy load.

The Bills have been worse against the run in recent weeks and especially in road games. Even Cedric Benson ran for 104 yards on them in 19 carries and Ahmad Bradshaw scored three times. Murray is a must start this week and should have a good game with at least one score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Miles Austin is out for two to four weeks with a bad hamstring but the Cowboys are not bringing in anyone new. Laurent Robinson was already successful replacing him and moves up while Kevin Ogletree assumes the slot role again. The reality is that Austin has not bee that productive this year and has not scored since week two. His absence is no longer that big of an impact. Dez Bryant has not been too affected by the increase in rushing as the #1 wideout but is overdue for a score.

The Bills secondary has faced several bad teams but when they match up on a really good wideout, that player usually scores and turns in nice yardage. five players have gained over 95 receiving yards on the Bills. Figure Bryant for a score and good yardage and Robinson could end up with decent yards as well.

TIGHT ENDS: Jason Witten should be a lock for a good showing this week against a defense that has allowed five tight ends to gain over 60 yards on them. Expect those yards and a good shot at a touchdown since he has four in the last five weeks including the last three home games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 8 17 7 5 4 15
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 24 24 20 23 5 2

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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