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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey  

Sortable Player Projections | Game Predictions Summary | Projections by Team

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC * NE at NYJ * STL at CLE
* ARI at PHI * DET at CHI * NO at ATL * TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB * NYG at SF WAS at MIA
* UPDATED * BUF at DAL JAC at IND * PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

Prediction: DEN 24, KC 23

Players to Watch: Tim Tebow

This is always a fun game that usually spits out a lot of points though the Chiefs won 10-6 when the Broncos visited in 2010. The Broncos are only 3-5 but just one game out of first place in the NFC AFC West. They are also 2-2 on the road while the Chiefs are 4-4 and just 2-2 at home. This is going to be messy and could end up a number of ways. The only certainty is that only the final five minutes or so are going to matter.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 OAK 20-23 10 @KC -
2 CIN 24-22 11 NYJ -
3 @TEN 14-17 12 @SD -
4 @GB 23-49 13 @MIN -
5 SD 24-29 14 CHI -
6 Bye - 15 NE -
7 @MIA 18-15 16 @BUF -
8 DET 10-45 17 KC -
9 @OAK 38-24      
Broncos Report | Statistics | Roster
DENVER at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Tim Tebow 80,1 - 150,1
RB Willis McGahee 90,1 - -
TE Daniel Fells - 10 -
WR Eric Decker - 50 -
WR Eddie Royal - 30,1 -
WR Demaryius Thomas - 40 -
PK Matt Prater 1 FG 3 XP -
Pregame Notes: The Broncos are now 2-1 under Tim Tebow and the short leash should be getting a bit longer now that he won on the road in Oakland. Willis McGahee also returned from hand surgery early and added a spark to the offense even though he only had one good hand. The upcoming schedule features almost nothing but tough matchups but the Broncos have already surprised under Tebow and if nothing else - this offense is becoming something entirely new to defend from the other 31 teams and that may not be a bad thing.

QUARTERBACK: The Broncos are finally admitting that they have a really good college-style quarterback and so are installing the spread offense that makes it easier for Tim Tebow to take off running as he is often inclined to do. The Raiders had not prepared for that last week and Tebow rushed 12 times for 117 yards as a result. He also passed for 124 yards and two scores - it's like watching Florida play Georgia only without all the hot undergrads in the stands.

The problem this week is that defenses get film and adjust to what offenses do so Tebow still has a lot of proving to do. John Elway even mentioned after the game that they were ready to throw Brady Quinn in if Tebow looked bad.

The problem in projecting is that Tebow is not a normal quarterback and defenses are still adjusting to them. Rushing is a given and passing is a guess.

RUNNING BACKS: Willis McGahee returned early from hand surgery and despite having only one good hand, he ripped off a season best 163 yards and two scores on 20 carries in Oakland. That makes four of the last six games top the 100 yard mark for McGahee who pushes Knowshon Moreno back into third down obscurity.

The Chiefs are one of the weaker teams against running backs who have scored nine times on them. Tebow is going to take up some rushing yards to be sure but McGahee stands a good shot at scoring in this game as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The passing yardage may not be high but at least the last three games have produced a total of four touchdown passes to wide receivers and Eric Decker has scored in the last two matchups. Both Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas. All but Decker have remain very safely below 50 yards each game but the scores are coming through.

The passing score is likely to end up here but any of the three could turn it in. I will assign it to Royal just as a place holder. The yardage is light here so the risk is too high to consider for a fantasy start.

TIGHT ENDS: While Tebow hit Daniel Fells for a score in week seven, he has only had one catch in each of the last two games and remains not fantasy relevant.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 12 13 27 26 30 11
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 27 24 25 21 10


Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 7-41 10 DEN -
2 @DET 3-48 11 @NE -
3 @SD 17-20 12 PIT -
4 MIN 22-17 13 @CHI -
5 @IND 28-24 14 @NYJ -
6 Bye - 15 GB -
7 @OAK 28-0 16 OAK -
8 SD 23-20 17 @DEN -
9 MIA 3-31      
Chiefs Report | Statistics | Roster
KANSAS CITY vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel - - 280,2
RB Dexter McCluster 30 10 -
RB Jackie Battle 60 - -
RB Thomas Jones 20 - -
WR Jonathan Baldwin - 50 -
WR Steve Breaston - 80,1 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 110,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 3 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs attempt to mail in the game last week went horribly wrong when the Dolphins pummeled them at Arrowhead Stadium with a whooping that hid the fact the Fins were winless. The Chiefs had been on a four game winning streak prior to that and were maybe at their peak considering what is looming in the future. If the Chiefs cannot get a win this week, they may not for the rest of the year or at least until the final two weeks when they retreat to the safety of the AFC West.

QUARTERBACK: Matt Cassel has been highly inconsistent and mostly unproductive though he snuck in a four score game against the Colts to make it look better. Cassel has passed for nine touchdowns but only has two touchdowns total over the four previous home games. He also threw nine interceptions and two lost fumbles.

The good news is that he faces the worst secondary against quarterbacks. Every opposing quarterback has thrown for at least one if not four touchdowns on the Broncos and four times passed for over 300 yards. The rushing effort is not likely to do much here so expect a better than normal game from Cassel that could end up a big one. This should end up as the easiest matchup of the year for Cassel.

RUNNING BACKS: All combined the Chiefs only have two rushing touchdowns and the intentional splitting of workload over three running backs makes this unit nearly worthless in fantasy terms. Jackie Battle usually offers moderate rushing yardage but only has one score on the season and almost no role as a receiver.

The Broncos are much better against the run than the ranking suggests. They have only allowed one rushing touchdown to a running back and yardage that is going to be split into three here anyway. Same deal - Battle with marginally enough yards for a fantasy start and no score.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This is where the Chiefs must and can compete. Dwayne Bowe has been very consistent with yardage and enters the game with four touchdowns and three 100 yard games. Steve Breaston remains the #2 with lesser yardage than Bowe and two scores though he comes off a 115 yards game against the Dolphins. The rookie Jonathan Baldwin now mans the slot and was impressive in week eight when he posted 82 yards and a score on the Chargers but then only managed one catch against the Fins. These are three very good wideouts that are getting better and about to face the worst secondary.

Baldwin is still a risk as a relatively new player but Breaston and Bowe are must starts this week. The Broncos have already allowed 11 scores to the position and six wideouts topped 100 yards on them.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 28 23 14 32 25 16
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 32 14 32 4 30 29

WEEK 10
2011
OAK at SD (thu) DEN at KC NE at NYJ STL at CLE
ARI at PHI DET at CHI NO at ATL TEN at CAR
BAL at SEA HOU at TB NYG at SF WAS at MIA
  BUF at DAL JAC at IND PIT at CIN MIN at GB (mon)

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